WTF is now wrong, all cryptos down?

[JohnnyDoe]

This is the situation inherited by Trump:

Pretty fucked up.

He has 3 choices to try to fix it:

1. Devalue the USD. Foreign goods become more expensive, domestic ones more convenient. Not going to happen (now).

2. Austerity. Never going to happen with Trump.

3. Tariffs. The best option, at least short term. The EU will be (further) destroyed, in particular Germany. BRICS will strengthen and the multipolar world will continue to evolve.

The future of btc remains completely unaffected.
The EU has no future. Lagarde recently confirmed that her goal is to kill the EU and that she is horrified by Bitcoin: “I am confident that bitcoin will not enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council”. She’s probably waiting for the price to reach $1m.

 

[ilke]

2. Austerity. Never going to happen with Trump.

This would be best but as you said, that cannot be expected with a Trump administration

The future of btc remains completely unaffected.
The EU has no future. Lagarde recently confirmed that her goal is to kill the EU and that she is horrified by Bitcoin: “I am confident that bitcoin will not enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council”. She’s probably waiting for the price to reach $1m.

Regulate ==> buy high ==> sell low – sounds pretty usual for EU

also blame somebody else for the project's failure after losing money, maybe Russia or China

Nevertheless, I am not very shocked by the EU's lack of interest in services and technology that would actually have a positive impact on people.

The clear move is to launch CBDC EUR, a beautiful shitcoin with lovely functions such as expiry dates, spying on users, more regulations

 

[ilke]

Lagarde recently confirmed that her goal is to kill the EU and that she is horrified by Bitcoin: “I am confident that bitcoin will not enter the reserves of any of the central banks of the General Council”.

Also pretty funny that she is projecting in practically all of the 'critiques' of BTC:

Feature	Bitcoin	Euro
Liquid	Has no central authority, can be sold to whomever wants to purchase it with nobody to prevent the transaction. There will never be more than 21M.	Centralised, printed limitlessly, missing the aspect of scarcity, can only be exchanged at a few institutions or at the will of the ECB
Secure	Bitcoin has never been hacked. The blockchain is very secure. Custodying (and potentially losing) your assets at external institutions is not a fault of BTC, rather of your personal choices.	ECB website got hacked in the past; you are always reliant on only 1 real clearing system – TARGET which is offered by the ECB. Funds have not yet been lost but reliance on 1 institution for all processing simply cannot be considered security.
Safe	Hard wallets, multisig, and so on + new wallets can be created and divided between freely	Held with a limited number of institutions running on clunky core banking systems. Backed by a hardly growing economy (EU)
Money laundering	All transactions are public, it would be counterproductive to try to launder money with BTC (unless using mixers, etc. in which case it will just be difficult to exchange/off-ramp the tainted coins)	Easy to let the money of friends pass through, no transparency in the project, fully centralised.
Other criminal activities	Literally just decentralised public software with verifiable and fully visible transactions	Literally controlled by suspicious individuals who consistently restrict the freedoms of both individuals and markets

 

[void]

So is this the moment when the crypto market collapses because it can't withstand a trade war? I see a lot of whales selling off, and the price is plummeting fast.

it's human nature to focus on downtrends, quickly forget and take previous growth for granted
what you see is transfer of wealth from idiots with wrong incentives to the smarter ones - from paper hands to diamond hands - it's a healthy process and every stage like this decreases the leverage and dependence on traditional financial markets

Wasn't crypto supposed to outperform gold and fiat? Well, it clearly didn’t!

depends on what your "crypto" is... bitcoin outperformed everything without doubt

 

[369]

it's human nature to focus on downtrends, quickly forget and take previous growth for granted
what you see is transfer of wealth from idiots with wrong incentives to the smarter ones - from paper hands to diamond hands - it's a healthy process and every stage like this decreases the leverage and dependence on traditional financial markets


depends on what your "crypto" is... bitcoin outperformed everything without doubt

the problem in your thinking is that the statement bitcoin outperformed everything is from the past.Last years it didn't outperform everything and in the future it will outperform nearly nothing

 

[Houdini]

Couldn’t one imagine that if someone has access to as much money as Trump and is also the President of the United States, possibly planning to shift part of the country’s economy to Bitcoin, this would greatly benefit both the U.S. and Trump at the same time?

They are now pushing the financial and crypto markets to their lowest point, allowing them to buy in cheaply.

 

[thomasparra]

I would not put more than 10-20% of my net worth into crypto (BTC, ETH to a lesser extent). Every situation is different, maybe if you are worth $10M with your main place of residence already paid for, you would not mind risking 5M @ 50% crypto exposure, but for someone who is worth less, and not safe economically it sounds more risky. Anyhow, I plan to buy more BTC today.

 

[cryptofriendly]

I would not put more than 10-20% of my net worth into crypto (BTC, ETH to a lesser extent). Every situation is different, maybe if you are worth $10M with your main place of residence already paid for, you would not mind risking 5M @ 50% crypto exposure, but for someone who is worth less, and not safe economically it sounds more risky. Anyhow, I plan to buy more BTC today.

Really? Would you prefer a depreciating fiat currency instead, at the most exciting point in the 4 year cycle?

As of today, I got exactly 99.996% in BTC and BTC derrivatives, 0.004% in fiat.
Risky? Well, your fiat money won't buy more goods in 8 months than today, that's for sure.

No main residence, no fixed income, no stocks, nothing in the bank, currently renting a villa 5 minutes walk from the beach, holding just enough fiat currency for a frugal lifestyle for the next 8 months. I don't mind keeping costs down, as every dollar that I save today (=invest in crypto) will be $2-$3 at the end of this year.

This will change around October, but until then, I see BTC as offering the best risk/reward.

Just follow the cycle, everything else is white noise, as is today's action.
None of the 40 top indicators is flashing yet.

 

[void]

I would not put more than 10-20%

to do what with the rest? I guess @wellington is wasting his precious time here relentlessly repeating the story about debasement all over again

if you are worth $10M with your main place of residence already paid for, you would not mind risking 5M @ 50% crypto exposure, but for someone who is worth less, and not safe economically it sounds more risky

you can't use absolute numbers but in general whatever one plans to save and not touch in the next 5 years should be in BTC

 

[Mercury]

No main residence, no fixed income, currently renting a villa 5 minutes walk from the beach,
holding just enough fiat currency for a frugal lifestyle the next 8 months.

I read a contradiction here

 

[void]

the problem in your thinking is that the statement bitcoin outperformed everything is from the past.Last years it didn't outperform everything and in the future it will outperform nearly nothing

you must be looking at another chart then... bitcoin SV perhaps? the name might be confusing

even if you deliberately compare current price to the top from Oct 2021 it's still pretty good.... really not sure what you're talking about

 

[thomasparra]

Really? Would you prefer a depreciating fiat currency instead, at the most exciting point in the 4 year cycle?

I am not sure how you come to this conclusion but if this is in reference to the US presidential term this is not a reliable assumption.

As of today, I got exactly 99.996% in BTC and BTC derrivatives, 0.004% in fiat.
Risky? Well, your fiat money won't buy more goods in 8 months than today, that's for sure.

This is once again an assumption.

No main residence, no fixed income, no stocks, nothing in the bank, currently renting a villa 5 minutes walk from the beach, holding just enough fiat currency for a frugal lifestyle for the next 8 months. I don't mind keeping costs down, as every dollar that I save today (=invest in crypto) will be $2-$3 at the end of this year.

This will change around October, but until then, I see BTC as offering the best risk/reward.

This is also an assumption. Your conviction, and your personal situation does not mean that other people should replicate it. This is why diversification is key. Only if I had top of the line insider information I would commit 100% of my net worth into a single stock/product.

Just follow the cycle, everything else is white noise, as is today's action.
None of the 40 top indicators is flashing yet.

"Technical" analysis is not helpful for long-term investing.

Throughout your post, I have already detected two major cognitive flaws (confirmation and overconfidence biais) which are natural inner ennemies of any investor.

to do what with the rest? I guess @wellington is wasting his precious time here relentlessly repeating the story about debasement all over again


you can't use absolute numbers but in general whatever one plans to save and not touch in the next 5 years should be in BTC

So you would recommend the average Joe to invest in BTC only, and not stocks, real estate etc? This is a pretty bold move.

 

[void]

So you would recommend the average Joe to invest in BTC only, and not stocks, real estate etc? This is a pretty bold move.

exactly, because it's actually no investment, it's a conservation of value the average Joe made, which is something 99% of people should only do
instead the poor uninformed plebs is pushed by the narrative of the state towards reckless "investments" in the pursuit of financial safety but it's the exact opposite - it's just pure gamble as these people have zero edge in what they're doing

 

[Houdini]

@TheCryptoAnt I would really like to read your opinion on todays shitstorm on the crypto market ?

 

[JackAlabama]

I am not sure how you come to this conclusion but if this is in reference to the US presidential term this is not a reliable assumption.



This is once again an assumption.

This is also an assumption. Your conviction, and your personal situation does not mean that other people should replicate it. This is why diversification is key. Only if I had top of the line insider information I would commit 100% of my net worth into a single stock/product.

"Technical" analysis is not helpful for long-term investing.

Throughout your post, I have already detected two major cognitive flaws (confirmation and overconfidence biais) which are natural inner ennemies of any investor.

So you would recommend the average Joe to invest in BTC only, and not stocks, real estate etc? This is a pretty bold move.

yes, totally Id suggest that: DCA into bitcoin and forget it and continue with the job.
the average joe has exactly 0 to gain from stocks and re, where you indeed need your 10m to start having some significant impact and benefits of the dividends (if your numbers are small, they wont be big until youre of old age).

 

[TheCryptoAnt]

@TheCryptoAnt I would really like to read your opinion on todays shitstorm on the crypto market ?

Shitposting aside; its ok just going sideways.
So far it holds 92k on a closing basis (H4/H12) still looks good.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

@TheCryptoAnt I would really like to read your opinion on todays shitstorm on the crypto market ?

The guy who sold @90k before it went up to 109k?
Post in thread 'WTF is now wrong, all cryptos down?'
https://www.offshorecorptalk.com/threads/wtf-is-now-wrong-all-cryptos-down.46564/post-330866

Let’s go, btc is dying again!

 

[TheCryptoAnt]

The guy who sold @90k before it went up to 109k?

much worst brother; my twap started at 88k

So far it holds 92k on a closing basis (H4/H12) still looks good.

I mean the attached FYI

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I mean the attached FYI

Too basic. Please add as a minimum Fibonacci retracements, gann fan, pivot points, Kaufman’s MA, Rahul mohinder oscillator and the Coppock Curve. Only then you can start to understand the market and draw horoscopes projections.

 

[TheCryptoAnt]

Too basic. Please add as a minimum Fibonacci retracements, gann fan, pivot points, Kaufman’s MA, Rahul mohinder oscillator and the Coppock Curve. Only then you can start to understand the market and draw horoscopes projections.

lmao

unironically you kinda have to go through a face like that in order to achieve greatness in trading. My charts in '18/19 were clustered with bs