Crypto is going down the toilet!

[SoNewToAllShit]

with all due respect all you say in this video is driven by emotions and common sense (if you will) however every long-term winning professional gambler will tell you it's a wrong approach and mathematically speaking sub-optimal

yes, one has to implement risk management and bankroll policies but it simply must reflect the rigorous assessment of probability distribution, expected outcomes and variance as not doing so results in decisions with negative expected value and deterioration or your wealth

this whole "reballancing" idea is about feeding your inner human with false safety and dopamine shots
people tend to ignore the responsible assessment of counter-party risks and the value of their limited lifetime

investing (more precisely allocation or conserved energy) is a continuous process without memory - at every moment you should ask yourself whether what you hold is what you would buy today - in other words (assuming your unit of account is USD!!) there is ZERO difference between holding 1M USD in BTC you made by investing 50k (10 years ago) and holding 1M USD in cash or RE valuated at 1M - the only thing that matters is what to do next (= which available form of energy conservation is optimal at given moment)

nice watch, thanks for sharing friend

 

[peter taradash]

"you should ask yourself whether what you hold is what you would buy today "
Great guide in theory. However, at least in my case, the hot stuff at all-time highs I am tempted to buy (& did buy) seldom did as well as simply holding on to the "Winners" I have. Same with rebalancing.
So I guess that
what you hold is what you would buy today" it is not a good rule for people (like me!) with a history of buying all the wrong stuff just before it tanks.

 

[void]

it is not a good rule for people (like me!) with a history of buying all the wrong stuff just before it tanks.

this experience or observation of your fails is utterly irrelevant - even if you make only good decision (with positive equity) the realization of it can go south or you could get bankrupt if your money management isn't right

ask yourself... do you appreciate all your good decisions the same way you focus on the wrong ones - I bet you don't like almost everyone, myself included
what more, theoretically it's also possible (with non-zero probability) that all the outcomes that played out well for you were actually wrong decisions and vice-versa - in other words humans are too focused on the history, suffer from survivorship bias and tend to ignore the numbers behind it

that's why poker is the number one game to play with kids... it's an ultimate simulation of life and how they should think about their decisions as adults

 

[daniels27]

"you should ask yourself whether what you hold is what you would buy today "

I think he has a kind of financial Diogenes syndrome:

Post in thread 'What investment is making you 10%+ yearly?'

Mar 6, 2024

The Limited clothing store.

My ex-wife (an all-American girl), who taught University graduate classes, used to take summer jobs at The Limited (in the late 80s and early 90s) so she could get discounts on her clothes

Notwithstanding ALL that, The Limited was lost on me. It was right in front of me, but I NEVER thought about it. I had the winning lottery numbers right there, and I never took a swing.
When I say I am dumb ... I am actually overestimating myself

This has happened to all of us. In 2012, I bought 45 BTC at $180...

• baltic7

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