Crypto is going down the toilet!

[cryptofriendly]

@cryptofriendly as a person who has helped me enormously on this forum, I would like to extend my gratitude by sharing the following age-old wisdom with you:

Don't even waste your time. Some people are condemned to a life of poverty and ignorance.

You are right, some people can't escape their conditioning.

BTW, this place in Phnom Penh is much better and more anonymous than a crypto ATM.
Take a close look at the writing on the blue sign above the shop.
Nomen est omen.

 

[jafo]

Take a close look at the writing on the blue sign above the shop.

The winners who are near and dear to my heart!

 

[Matade]

Down the toilet? One magical coin costs sixty-three thousand freedom bux ol

 

[peter taradash]

Why, lot's of replies

Why, lot's of replies from good people

SELL HALF YOUR BTC WHEN YOU CAN RECOUP ALL YOUR ORIGINAL INVESMENT- THEN BY INCOME REAL ESTATE.
What real estate is good? A great location is the most important thing. Many places are OK. Recently I looked into a great new city location. "BGC MANILA" It is the best, safest, ultra-modern, Singapore-like neighborhood of Manila, It is called "BGC." You can buy or "rent to buy" a good condo in BGC Manila relatively cheap. Price? Depends on size, amenities, view, floor, etc. The cost is from about $100,00 for a studio up to practically infinity like $5 million for a 500m2 penthouse. Still, that is only 20% of comparable big-city or resort prices. I just bought a 2 brm 2 bath BGC in the $300,000 range. I like the fact that the prices, condo fees, real estate taxes, and everything else are low. In BGC prices and running costs, are maybe 20%; much less than in Miami, Phuket, or the French Riviera. Air BnB is legal in BGC. Price appreciation there is expected to be at least 10% a year in U$A dollars. Rentals in BGC are in demand. The Philippines is pretty Libertarian. Government interference is low to nil. Well-managed Rental properties can give you a 20% annual yield.

Negative? Most Manila condos have the problem of rapid deterioration after the developer sells all his units, but Ayala properties (for instance) have a record of excellent maintenance. I am retired and don't have much to do so if you are in (Manila) Philippines and want no-cost advice (just buy me a hamburger & a beer). Feel free to contact me. And hey, be sure to have a look at my "Grandpa 85 comments on Bitcoin" See my YouTube videos on LOVE, SEX & all kinds of subjects of possible interest to you. Make comments on them. Muchas Gracias. Peter Taradash

 

[void]

SELL HALF YOUR BTC WHEN YOU CAN RECOUP ALL YOUR ORIGINAL INVESMENT- THEN BY INCOME REAL ESTATE.
What real estate is good? A great location is the most important thing. Many places are OK. Recently I looked into a great new city location. "BGC MANILA" It is the best, safest, ultra-modern, Singapore-like neighborhood of Manila, It is called "BGC." You can buy or "rent to buy" a good condo in BGC Manila relatively cheap. Price? Depends on size, amenities, view, floor, etc. The cost is from about $100,00 for a studio up to practically infinity like $5 million for a 500m2 penthouse. Still, that is only 20% of comparable big-city or resort prices. I just bought a 2 brm 2 bath BGC in the $300,000 range. I like the fact that the prices, condo fees, real estate taxes, and everything else are low. In BGC prices and running costs, are maybe 20%; much less than in Miami, Phuket, or the French Riviera. Air BnB is legal in BGC. Price appreciation there is expected to be at least 10% a year in U$A dollars. Rentals in BGC are in demand. The Philippines is pretty Libertarian. Government interference is low to nil. Well-managed Rental properties can give you a 20% annual yield.

Negative? Most Manila condos have the problem of rapid deterioration after the developer sells all his units, but Ayala properties (for instance) have a record of excellent maintenance. I am retired and don't have much to do so if you are in (Manila) Philippines and want no-cost advice (just buy me a hamburger & a beer). Feel free to contact me. And hey, be sure to have a look at my "Grandpa 85 comments on Bitcoin" See my YouTube videos on LOVE, SEX & all kinds of subjects of possible interest to you. Make comments on them. Muchas Gracias. Peter Taradash

despite I don't find this investment advice of yours sensible you are a very likeable person and I'd truly love to sit and talk with you one day... good luck and take care

 

[peter taradash]

despite I don't find this investment advice of yours sensible you are a very likeable person and I'd truly love to sit and talk with you one day... good luck and take care

Well, tell me your investment advice that works better than mine. I don't think you can go wrong with diversification. Why? Because if you make a mistake and btc grows wings at least you should own 5-10% gold &/or silver, 15% good index funds (low management charges), 30% income real estate, 10-15% Crypto related assets, 5% play money and above all your own fully paid home & a business or profession that generates enough to live on and then some. The only thing you should NEVER hold long term is rapidly depreciating currency like dollars, Euros or any of the others except maybe Swiss Francs.PT

 

[JackAlabama]

Well, tell me your investment advice that works better than mine. I don't think you can go wrong with diversification. Why? Because if you make a mistake and btc grows wings at least you should own 5-10% gold &/or silver, 15% good index funds (low management charges), 30% income real estate, 10-15% Crypto related assets, 5% play money and above all your own fully paid home & a business or profession that generates enough to live on and then some. The only thing you should NEVER hold long term is rapidly depreciating currency like dollars, Euros or any of the others except maybe Swiss Francs.PT

swiss francs are equally bad as all the other bigger fiat currencies. It is doing everything the eu demands (no exceptions here really), starting from the Lugano convention until immigration policies what not. It will become very apparent when ubs goes down.

Not much diversification needed.
You can do c(tra)sh/btc split to address volatility.

 

[peter taradash]

Well, tell me your investment advice that works better than mine. I don't think you can go wrong with diversification. Why? Because if you make a mistake and btc grows wings at least you should own 5-10% gold &/or silver, 15% good index funds (low management charges), 30% income real estate, 10-15% Crypto related assets, 5% play money and above all your own fully paid home & a business or profession that generates enough to live on and then some. The only thing you should NEVER hold long term is rapidly depreciating currency like dollars, Euros or any of the others except maybe Swiss Francs.PT

I don't know what results you had, but a while back I did a video called "Quo Vadis Bitcoin. " {YouTube.comLuckytoblive 888}. Anyone who followed my suggestions then, more than doubled their BTC money in a few months. I am not infallible of course, but my diversification makes a lot of money in times of market rises or crisis, and when almost everything is going to H*ll, it holds up better than being in just one or a few things.

 

[peter taradash]

Well, tell me your investment advice that works better than mine. I don't think you can go wrong with diversification. Why? Because if you make a mistake and btc grows wings at least you should own 5-10% gold &/or silver, 15% good index funds (low management charges), 30% income real estate, 10-15% Crypto related assets, 5% play money and above all your own fully paid home & a business or profession that generates enough to live on and then some. The only thing you should NEVER hold long term is rapidly depreciating currency like dollars, Euros or any of the others except maybe Swiss Francs.PT

 

[peter taradash]

correction:

I gave the wrong address for my Grandpa 86 video on BTC

 

[peter taradash]

correcting the correction- YouTube often gives me the wrong URL when I ask for it. Here is my video on "Quo Vadis Bitcoin"-{My advice on holding & selling BTC! I hope!}

 

[peter taradash]

As to Swiss Francs, like everyone who makes predictions, I am probably going to be wrong by using past trends to guess at the future.... But for the last 2 dozen years the CHF has gained value against all other currencies. Obviously, not every day, but over annual periods-- Thus, IMO it is the best fiat currency to hold --if you hold any currency. Within Switzerland, prices go up about 5% a year on average--meaning the value or purchasing power of their currency goes down. Strangely enough, the purchasing power of the CHF goes up annually in neighboring Italy, France & Germany. The USA as well! The anomaly being that prices of groceries & many other things within Switzerland are now close to double what they are "next door." If you go to shopping centers outside of Switzerland (near their borders) you will see half the shoppers are in Swiss licensed cars.

 

[void]

correcting the correction- YouTube often gives me the wrong URL when I ask for it. Here is my video on "Quo Vadis Bitcoin"-{My advice on holding & selling BTC! I hope!}

with all due respect all you say in this video is driven by emotions and common sense (if you will) however every long-term winning professional gambler will tell you it's a wrong approach and mathematically speaking sub-optimal

yes, one has to implement risk management and bankroll policies but it simply must reflect the rigorous assessment of probability distribution, expected outcomes and variance as not doing so results in decisions with negative expected value and deterioration or your wealth

this whole "reballancing" idea is about feeding your inner human with false safety and dopamine shots
people tend to ignore the responsible assessment of counter-party risks and the value of their limited lifetime

investing (more precisely allocation or conserved energy) is a continuous process without memory - at every moment you should ask yourself whether what you hold is what you would buy today - in other words (assuming your unit of account is USD!!) there is ZERO difference between holding 1M USD in BTC you made by investing 50k (10 years ago) and holding 1M USD in cash or RE valuated at 1M - the only thing that matters is what to do next (= which available form of energy conservation is optimal at given moment)

 

[JackAlabama]

As to Swiss Francs, like everyone who makes predictions, I am probably going to be wrong by using past trends to guess at the future.... But for the last 2 dozen years the CHF has gained value against all other currencies. Obviously, not every day, but over annual periods-- Thus, IMO it is the best fiat currency to hold --if you hold any currency. Within Switzerland, prices go up about 5% a year on average--meaning the value or purchasing power of their currency goes down. Strangely enough, the purchasing power of the CHF goes up annually in neighboring Italy, France & Germany. The USA as well! The anomaly being that prices of groceries & many other things within Switzerland are now close to double what they are "next door." If you go to shopping centers outside of Switzerland (near their borders) you will see half the shoppers are in Swiss licensed cars.

First of all Id agree with you on this view on principle.
You look entirely into the past, you surely know well past performance cant predict the future.
If you look chf/usa purchasing power its not that much. chf just appears strong against the horrendous euro failure. But we have em currencies holding up nicely against euro as well.

You also may have noticed the horrendous things the swiss are doing to end their competitive advantage. Especially this is becoming apparent since the flu crisis.

I outlined a few points already above but we have more:
* since 2022 theres even outflow from the offshore banking since they are not neutral any more (people now diversify out into even georgia lol).
* They also lost their competitive advantage in crypto, the last 5 years no new project really moved there whereas the 5 years prior it was pretty much the only game in town.
* country gets woke more and more
* subserviant status against eu and usa demands
* horrendous handling of credit suisse (no rule of law, just some fly by night made up decisions akin to banana republics)

This will sooner rather than later affect the value of their fiat currency, supply and demand and the demand side will go down a lot unless they sharply reverse course (which it does not look like it).

Id be very very cautious about chf for that matter, better usd if theres need for fiat cash, even tho usd looks overvalued at present (but bitcoin is hedge against this).

 

[JackAlabama]

with all due respect all you say in this video is driven by emotions and common sense (if you will) however every long-term winning professional gambler will tell you it's a wrong approach and mathematically speaking sub-optimal

yes, one has to implement risk management and bankroll policies but it simply must reflect the rigorous assessment of probability distribution, expected outcomes and variance as not doing so results in decisions with negative expected value and deterioration or your wealth

this whole "reballancing" idea is about feeding your inner human with false safety and dopamine shots
people tend to ignore the responsible assessment of counter-party risks and the value of their limited lifetime

investing (more precisely allocation or conserved energy) is a continuous process without memory - at every moment you should ask yourself whether what you hold is what you would buy today - in other words (assuming your unit of account is USD!!) there is ZERO difference between holding 1M USD in BTC you made by investing 50k (10 years ago) and holding 1M USD in cash or RE valuated at 1M - the only thing that matters is what to do next (= which available form of energy conservation is optimal at given moment)

youre spot on.

rebalancing and portfolio construction theory is a pure fiat world necessity. Its not needed under hard money standard, which bitcoin is the hardest form of it.

 

[peter taradash]

Asset Management???
Yes! Looking at your assets and asking yourself, "Would I buy this at the present price today?" Then if you wouldn't buy it, dump it.
That seems like a good approach --objectively!
The problem with that approach is I often say to myself "That particular asset is overpriced & I wouldn't buy it today>" Then, almost every time I sold, in real life--it turned out I sold way too early ...

My decision left a big bundle of cash (appreciation) on the table. My approach of letting the casino's money ride, even on what I considered overpriced assets turned out to be much more profitable to me personally. Maybe your experience is different.

I might not buy BTC today, but I am certainly letting my cost-free profits ride --maybe to infinity. It's now $100,000 @ I will sell another half at $250,000 per BTC if it ever gets there. P.T.

 

[JackAlabama]

Asset Management???
Yes! Looking at your assets and asking yourself, "Would I buy this at the present price today?" Then if you wouldn't buy it, dump it.
That seems like a good approach --objectively!
The problem with that approach is I often say to myself "That particular asset is overpriced & I wouldn't buy it today>" Then, almost every time I sold, in real life--it turned out I sold way too early ...

My decision left a big bundle of cash (appreciation) on the table. My approach of letting the casino's money ride, even on what I considered overpriced assets turned out to be much more profitable to me personally. Maybe your experience is different.

I might not buy BTC today, but I am certainly letting my cost-free profits ride --maybe to infinity. It's now $100,000 @ I will sell another half at $250,000 per BTC if it ever gets there. P.T.

you mean *when* it gets there?
The calculation is easy: its for fiat: your savings / unlimited vs. for bitcoin: your savings / 21M

 

[void]

The problem with that approach is I often say to myself "That particular asset is overpriced & I wouldn't buy it today>" Then, almost every time I sold, in real life--it turned out I sold way too early ...

My decision left a big bundle of cash (appreciation) on the table. My approach of letting the casino's money ride, even on what I considered overpriced assets turned out to be much more profitable to me personally. Maybe your experience is different.

it seems like two examples of wrong estimation - it's perfectly normal, everyone makes mistakes, what matters is the aggregate expected value
either work on it and improve or live with it

I might not buy BTC today, but I am certainly letting my cost-free profits ride --maybe to infinity. It's now $100,000 @ I will sell another half at $250,000 per BTC if it ever gets there. P.T.

hard to question this approach as you're mentally stuck to USD as not only a unit of account but also a "safe haven" to what you exit your investments - totally understandable as it's a tremendous mind shift but it's also obvious to more and more people every day that this is a wrong legacy paradigm and there is no way back

 

[OKboomer]

@Jack

you mean *when* it gets there?
The calculation is easy: its for fiat: your savings / unlimited vs. for bitcoin: your savings / 21M

What do you think about Trump's / FED's / DoT actions over the past couple of weeks?
I cannot claim to be a macroeconomist enough to analyze, and those who profess to be experts give diametrally opposite opinions anyway, hard to cut through the noise. analyzing official data isn't helpful, since everyone is adamant about it being fake data....

but isn't there some kind of liquidity contraction going on right now / some attempt to deleverage the economy and have less US money supply?

Crypto markets (except for BTC) have entered a bear market. BTC itself is in some weak bull, arguably weaker than the prior cycle which was also pretty weak and BTC topped out earlier than the s2f model would predict?

however, if SPX nosedives, which (on the surface, maybe i am missing something) is almost something Trump wants to happen now (others claim his enemies from prior admin/FED want it to happen) -- if SPX nosedives, BTC will nosedive with it?

 

[peter taradash]

it seems like two examples of wrong estimation - it's perfectly normal, everyone makes mistakes, what matters is the aggregate expected value
either work on it and improve or live with it


hard to question this approach as you're mentally stuck to USD as not only a unit of account but also a "safe haven" to what you exit your investments - totally understandable as it's a tremendous mind shift but it's also obvious to more and more people every day that this is a wrong legacy paradigm and there is no way back

On the contrary: I don't like the U$A at all as a store of value. I wouldn't keep dollars for more than a short time --till I found something better (like parking spaces?) to invest in. . I used dollars to illustrate my BTC strategy only because that ($) is how BTC/Tether is usually quoted. I recognize that most corporate profits are only a reflection of the dollar's decline in value. However, BTC gains have been, and IMO probably will be greatly in excess of inflation. I think 1 BTC reaching a $250,000 bid price is a reasonable medium term (2-3 year) target. PT