I don’t have time to read all of this - but will point out had to you observed Global Liquidity being drained in September by 3% (1% - 15% move in BTC) you’d have been prepared for this as it takes 12/13 weeks to seep through the markets.
The good news is it’s already back above where it was in September, the bad news is there is not enough liquidity to roll the debt and over 2.7% markets absolutely crater (this isn’t a crater yet) - good news DXY coming down and China throwing in liquidity, same as the EU, the US is however lagging.
FYI global liquidity isn’t M2 (that’s just directionally tied but lags
The good news is you don’t need to pay 5k a month or build your own things (200k and lots of data providers) you just use things like Michael Howell - capital wars Substack PDF where he gives weekly updates (lag) or terminal ai.catenacap.xyz which has everything tracked in dashboards
Note there’s a lot of liquidity that you don’t see or hear about such as the Yellen YCC or QE Not QE that’s been going on (some 6 trillion $ pumped in behind the scenes that’s now down to the last sub 1 trillion currently draining out) that’s why it’s important to understand liquidity in its forms as it’s basically the driver with a 94% correlation to Bitcoin.
As for Alts / ETH - those are based on the business cycle - ISM just in the past few months peaked above 50% - around 62/68% that’s when you see the firecrackers and should be on the life craft - ergo it’s underperformed because the business cycle lags FCI and FCI lags GL and GL lags CB L.
Hope that helps
