I have the feeling that the bitcoin value is collasping

[OTR365]

from what I know second biggest owner of BTC is FBI,...

FBI does not hoard coins. The coins seized from internet entrepreneurs such as Ross Ulbricht, were auctioned a long time ago.

 

[LouisB]

You got a lot of faith in that governments i.e US will not choose to ban their banks from dealing with crypto companies or individuals and hence in effect create a global banking ban. For me the risk was too great and I sold BTC at circa $13,000 some years ago as I posted on here. I think if BTC can maintain purchasing power after any potential banking ban then it is credible. If it relies upon being able to be easily converted to fiat then it is not credible no matter how enthusiastic one is about BTC.

I don't think that banning BTC in the whole world is even possible. Look at how much banks in dozens of countries are on black or grey list due to money laundering etc. for dozens of years. Much more pragmatic step is an attempt to force all banks and payment processor to follow KYC/AML rules and take own piece thanks to taxes. Even if all governments managed to ban crypto for all banks, there are a lot of payment systems like Mpesa in Africa, Alipay/Wechat in China etc. How you would block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?

 

[LouisB]

FBI does not hoard coins. The coins seized from internet entrepreneurs such as Ross Ulbricht, were auctioned a long time ago.

Exactly, they were sold with a discount and the demand was much higher than the available seized amount. Similarly, Bulgaria sold gradually their seized bitcoin in auctions and many other national authorities doing the same

 

[LouisB]

You can create an IOU pegged to Bitcoin Price. Some Investments banks trying to offer this to BTC desperate clients based on reports. But one thing is certain, no one can prevent price crash caused by Gov actions.

BTC will die. Central Bank Coins going to pop up near soon.

I agree that we will see CBDC but don't understand why you think they could threaten to BTC. CBDC will be highly inflated coins by their nature to keep the status quo with increasing central bank balance sheets

 

[void]

FBI does not hoard coins. The coins seized from internet entrepreneurs such as Ross Ulbricht, were auctioned a long time ago.

I know, part of them auctioned, a lot remaining from what I know - anyway it was just a "fun fact", nothing important

 

[Martin Everson]

How you would block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?

You wouldn't need to.

 

[nomad999]

For now the price of bitcoin is following the trend of everything else, i expect the price to tank heavily when the global market crash again soon, thinking 3 digits btc ... i dont think we have seen real pain yet.
The next halving in may is likely going to put even more downside pressure on the price as a lot of miners will go bankrupt and will be forced to sell their stash of btc.
Only after this storm is over will the price skyrocket to new high like it did several time before.
Just my take on it at this point.

Worst case scenario the price will stay low for some time but bitcoin will never cease to exist, especially with energy becoming more cheap over time it will always be profitable to mine for someone somewhere.

Also all those talks about 51% attack are just nonsense from people who are clueless and biased against it, the cost for such an attack would be insane and extremely risky. At best the result would be a network disruption for a few days and everything would get back to normal and this would only push the price up in the end.

 

[OTR365]

i expect the price to tank heavily when the global market crash again soon, thinking 3 digits btc ... i dont think we have seen real pain yet.

We've already seen one wave of panic; one must really be shitting one's pants to sell at 4000 USD. Other explanations: 1) Forced liquidation of a leveraged position by an exchange, 2) Fat fingers. So, my thinking is: If there is a next wave, it won't go as low, because the weakest hands & fattest fingers have already been shaken out.

The next halving in may is likely going to put even more downside pressure on the price as a lot of miners will go bankrupt and will be forced to sell their stash of btc.

There weren't waves of bankrupties after the previous halvings, so why now? If a miner is already living from hand to mouth, they won't have many coins to sell. Those who can afford to stash coins, are probably in a good financial position.

I am quite positive about bitcoin. Not super bullish, but positive. Gradually people will start worrying about solvency issues, and I can't see bitcoin doing badly in that situation. The industrialized world is only one bank holiday away from steep haircuts.

 

[nomad999]

Well mining is a bit complex now from what i have gathered, there a several generation of mining rigs out there and the latest ones are crazy efficient even at not so cheap electricity price, it seems most miners running very old hardware even at very cheap electricity won't be able to compete with newer hardware after the halving and if the price tanked for some time many will have to sell more to stay affloat.

Here is a very good article on the matter and very recent :
https://www.blockwaresolutions.com/research-and-publications/2020-halving-analysis

 

[countryfree]

I still have faith in bitcoin.
I also have shares, and they're down even more. When I see central banks (EU & US) printing money like there's no tomorrow, bitcoin clearly has a future.

 

[LouisB]

You wouldn't need to.

Why? If you allow the third party to handle cash in and out from bitcoins, then it's similar like the direct using banking just more expensive, so this not only a question about forcing all banks to ban transactions related to bitcoin

 

[Martin Everson]

Why? If you allow the third party to handle cash in and out from bitcoins, then it's similar like the direct using banking just more expensive, so this not only a question about forcing all banks to ban transactions related to bitcoin

So you asked the below question and I responded to it with "You wouldn't need to". Do you find any middlemen companies openly willing to break US sanctions on Iran anywhere on planet earth? Same logic applies as no Mpesa or Alipay CEO of these "middlemen systems" wants to end up fined, business closed down or put in jail. They will implement draconian measures. It won't stop a determined person as nothing will but the punishment dished out if caught will serve as a hindrance.

Even if all governments managed to ban crypto for all banks, there are a lot of payment systems like Mpesa in Africa, Alipay/Wechat in China etc. How you would block these middleman systems and prevented users from dealing with Bitcoins between each other?

 

[iloveyouguys]

So you asked the below question and I responded to it with "You wouldn't need to". Do you find any middlemen companies openly willing to break US sanctions on Iran anywhere on planet earth? Same logic applies as no Mpesa or Alipay CEO of these "middlemen systems" wants to end up fined, business closed down or put in jail. They will implement draconian measures. It won't stop a determined person as nothing will but the punishment dished out if caught will serve as a hindrance.

When do you think US will stop being at the top of the military hierarchy and subsequently financial hierarchy?

 

[OTR365]

This is a race against time. The enemy is at the gates, preparing for a 2nd wave of panic selling. Cavalry is on the way, but it will still take a month. Too late, I think, but the near arrival of halving should dampen the selling.

This week Raoul Pal (GMI, Real Vision) put out a report, basically telling the World is truly, royally fucked. He is bullish on gold, and ultra bullish on bitcoin. To me, the recent market activity looks a bit weak. I actually expected BTC would have hit 8400 USD already now. Gold has already fully recovered, but not bitcoin, so I guess bitcoin is still very vulnerable to the downside.

...most miners running very old hardware even at very cheap electricity won't be able to compete with newer hardware after the halving and if the price tanked for some time many will have to sell more to stay affloat.

Yes, if the price falls, there will be more selling pressure from the miners. If it rises; less pressure. In this way, the up/downtrends in bitcoin feed itself. In my opinion, the situation with hardware is the same as it has always been: New mining rigs drive out the old rigs. (CPU < GPU < ASIC). Somebody is always close to quitting. At that point, they have only few coins left and hence don't have a huge effect on the market price.

(The link you posted mentioned busting the myth, "Breakeven Price of the Miner is a Price Floor." This is self-evident: In no commodity is the production cost a price floor. Recent example: Crude oil market).

 

[Martin Everson]

When do you think US will stop being at the top of the military hierarchy and subsequently financial hierarchy?

They stopped being the top military hierarchy after WW2. They lost every war since from Vietnam to the 18 year war in Afghanistan where the Taliban whipped their a*s and forced them to do a peace deal recently. Who would think the so called greatest military in the world could not beat a bunch of guys running round in headscarfs, sandals with AK47 and RPG7's. Thats all you need to know about US power in modern warfare. Modern warfare is not big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.

US power is projected financially via using the dollar as a weapon. It's the accepted international currency of trade and the US has used it to wage economic war on i.e Turkey etc. Their dominance won't last for ever. Once a suitable alternative is found to the dollar they will end being top of the financial hierarchy. Any alternative global currency used in international trade, foreign reserves and settlement that is outside US control will be end of US as number one financially. They will not be able to use financial sanctions as a weapon, maintain the unfair advantage they have over being able to print dollars or dominate international trade. Unfortunately we are decades away from that point. Also US will topple any government or person by any means who tries to achieve this result as they have to maintain their dominant position that benefits them at ANY cost to human life.

P.S Bitcoin is not the game changer.

 

[clemens]

so far the bitcoin is stable, it doesn't look like any collaps!

 

[iloveyouguys]

They stopped being the top military hierarchy after WW2. They lost every war since from Vietnam to the 18 year war in Afghanistan where the Taliban whipped their a*s and forced them to do a peace deal recently. Who would think the so called greatest military in the world could not beat a bunch of guys running round in headscarfs, sandals with AK47 and RPG7's. Thats all you need to know about US power in modern warfare. Modern warfare is not big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.

US power is projected financially via using the dollar as a weapon. It's the accepted international currency of trade and the US has used it to wage economic war on i.e Turkey etc. Their dominance won't last for ever. Once a suitable alternative is found to the dollar they will end being top of the financial hierarchy. Any alternative global currency used in international trade, foreign reserves and settlement that is outside US control will be end of US as number one financially. They will not be able to use financial sanctions as a weapon, maintain the unfair advantage they have over being able to print dollars or dominate international trade. Unfortunately we are decades away from that point. Also US will topple any government or person by any means who tries to achieve this result as they have to maintain their dominant position that benefits them at ANY cost to human life.

P.S Bitcoin is not the game changer.

If not US, who is at the top of dominance hierarchy then?

I think you are being emotional. The only reason US gets to wage economic war is because they have the military advantage over other countries. Money is worthless if you don't have power to protect it.

1. US is an island, away from other countries. One of the biggest military advantage.
2. They control majority of information distribution in the world (TV, movies, songs, apps, internet). They shape identities of people who consume these media. Look at how middle east changed in last 10 years. Why do you think women started to drive in UAE?
3. Their lands are new. Unlike Asia or Eu or Middle east. More self sustaining compared to other continents. That's why they grew faster than other countries in last 100 years.
4. Not to mention the tech and size of military budget. US attracts the best minds from the world with $.

Even if the average US soldier or person is an utter idiot, it doesn't matter. Even if they lose wars to people who fight with sandals, it doesn't matter. They can hurt other countries. That's leverage in negotiation. That's what matters.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[John Andrews]

Lol... war on terrorism was never meant to be won... it is/was simply a transfer of wealth from the american taxpayer to the military industrial complex. Even if the US dollar loses its status they will still be the #1 country in regards to the economy and tech.

 

[extremedox101]

Modern warfare is not big bombers, jet fighters, battleships and submarines. Modern warfare is self sacrifice, bravery, winning hearts and minds and righteousness. None of which the US possesses sadly.

i think that example does not fit us army perfectly and probably apply to israel army that been known to hide behind weapons and fear to die . historically the us army is somehow brave and fight in battles , also many who join it are immigrants who desperately wish to get us passport . taliban members just hide in caves they didn't gave real good fight . i think us don't have victory of recent wars because their administration lacking purpose.

 

[Martin Everson]

The only reason US gets to wage economic war is because they have the military advantage over other countries.

That's a myth proven false by every conflict they lost since WW2. Did they have military advantage in Afghanistan, Somalia or Vietnam? They did but did they win any of them? NO they didn't...lol. All incursions were resisted and US had their asses whooped.

Money is worthless if you don't have power to protect it.

Not entirely true. If it was then the Russian Ruble should be second strongest currency after the dollar.

1. US is an island, away from other countries. One of the biggest military advantage.

Does not help in modern warfare. The enemy does not come to you. The enemy lets you come to them.

2. They control majority of information distribution in the world (TV, movies, songs, apps, internet). They shape identities of people who consume these media. Look at how middle east changed in last 10 years. Why do you think women started to drive in UAE?

The US have huge cultural influence no denying that fact. But woman started to drive in UAE or do you mean Saudi Arabia..lol?

3. Their lands are new. Unlike Asia or Eu or Middle east. More self sustaining compared to other continents. That's why they grew faster than other countries in last 100 years.

Have you ever been to China or Japan? Have you seen the growth in China in last 40 years. China has caught up and exceeded the US infrastructure wise. The US infrastructure is crumbling. Their roads are in bad state, dirty water, no high speed rail networks, bridges falling apart etc etc etc....lol. Just google "US Infrastructure problems" before you post. Most of america is not new compared to rapid growth and development taking place in Asia and Middle East. You saying America newer than UAE....your crazy...lol.

4. Not to mention the tech and size of military budget. US attracts the best minds from the world with $.

Yes they do attract the best minds with the American dream. It also helps when you are able to print as much money as you need out of thin air. If they need to support the US bond market where a load of corporate bonds just turned from investment grade to junk rating then just print out of thin air another $2.3 trillion dollars...lol.

Even if the average US soldier or person is an utter idiot, it doesn't matter. Even if they lose wars to people who fight with sandals, it doesn't matter. They can hurt other countries. That's leverage in negotiation. That's what matters.

I agree.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

Just done so