I have the feeling that the bitcoin value is collasping

[Clip]

Bitcoin is down 50% in one month.....lol. Where are all the pumpers that claimed bitcoin is a safe haven in a financial collapse or crisis? They said people will flock to bitcoin and the price will go through the roof. Well we are suffering a global financial crisis and economic ruin for some industries such as airline and shale with flights cancelled and record low oil prices right now .

Bitcoin has done nothing other than replicate the market and go down more than the market. It has not been any sort of hedge or non-correlated asset to the market or anyone's portfolio. I think the myth about bitcoin has been busted now well and truly. All the false claims, pumpers and bitcoin nuts have been exposed by a thing called...reality. People would be better of right now if they had held cash or AAA sovereign bonds like I do and said all along .

Everything got liquidated to get cash, including Gold. Bitcoin surge will come when the banks start to collapse (if the FED and ECB allows this to happen)

Dead cat bounce?

Still 20% return in 24hrs is not bad. I wait 4 years for that sort of return in bond market

Many whales that I know sold their Btc at 10k and they are waiting to step in again, but seems they are still waiting for another dip

 

[avalanche]

Many whales that I know sold their Btc at 10k and they are waiting to step in again, but seems they are still waiting for another dip

Dont worry, bitcoin is here to stay. People who claim it has no intrinsic value have no idea probably what its like to transfer any amount of money with *fixed fee* across borders without any bureaucracy lol. Or to have a currency that does not depend on any country in particular. If chinese miners back off, there will be plenty of others who will step in

 

[Clip]

Dont worry, bitcoin is here to stay. People who claim it has no intrinsic value have no idea probably what its like to transfer any amount of money with *fixed fee* across borders without any bureaucracy lol. Or to have a currency that does not depend on any country in particular. If chinese miners back off, there will be plenty of others who will step in

Bitcoin came to bank the unbankables, while there's people that believes on it, there would be somebody whiling to buy it

 

[avalanche]

Bitcoin came to bank the unbankables, while there's people that believes on it, there would be somebody whiling to buy it

Yes. I was successfully paying for my rent and utilities with BTC. Very convenient.

 

[Clip]

Yes. I was successfully paying for my rent and utilities with BTC. Very convenient.

Are you being ironic?

 

[avalanche]

Are you being ironic?

No, I've been using BTC for 4 years for paying for things. Its a lot more convenient than even card payments. If volatility issue will be resolved anytime soon it would be the perfect payment system for me.

 

[Clip]

Also there are cards like TenX, Crypto.com,Coinbase that can convert it on spot and pay everything

 

[JohnLocke]

Please don't turn this into a "bitcoin and how to withdraw them" discussion, stick to the topic or the clearner will rung through the thread

Looks like people don't read what I wrote above or simply ignore what I wrote. Let's try with some more simple.

DON'T POST ANYTHING ELSE THEN WHAT FITS IN THE TOPIC TITLE!

If I have to clean the thread again for posts by the same users I will have to send warning points.

 

[LouisB]

There are two kinds of financial crisis:
1. Liquidity crisis. People panic, and want to get out of all kinds of financial contraptions in order to get their wealth into bank accounts and cash. Mutual funds etc. are in turn forced to sell their assets, even those assets they consider good bets. The situation is made worse by VAR (Value at risk) risk measures, which force funds to sell an asset if its volatility increases.

2. Solvency crisis. This is when people start worrying about the ability of banks, brokers, companies, even countries to meet their liabilities. They want to get out of the financial system altogether. Money in a bank account is no longer considered safe (re: Cyprus 2012-13), even cash is shunned because of a perceived inflation risk.

We are now in liquidity crisis. Every asset is sold in panic, even assets like gold (happened also in 2008). IF this crisis develops into solvency crisis (let's hope it doesn't), investors will run for an exit. Those exits are few - mostly gold and bitcoin.

Bitcoin has performed miserably in this liquidity crisis. Somebody might have guessed this, based on the fact that nowadays many hedge funds own it. I dont see the near future that bleak: The weak hands are hopefully gone, and the mining supply will halven in 50+ days. As to the stock market, there will be bounces, but it would not surprise me if we aren't even halfway to the bottom.

That's a good summary, It also would be worth adding that there is much less real liquidity (in the case of classical stock markets) because on the demand side is for almost 12 years central banks. Bitcoin was in sell-off mode as any assets, it's a sign of panic, but the longterm view is positive for me. Truth is that BTC price is highly manipulated by few hands, but for those who would think that traditional stocks are better, I hope that the lesson a few days ago with Trump's fake tweet and 40% rally up and immediately fall was the proof that these manipulations happen everywhere

Bitcoin is down 50% in one month.....lol. Where are all the pumpers that claimed bitcoin is a safe haven in a financial collapse or crisis? They said people will flock to bitcoin and the price will go through the roof. Well we are suffering a global financial crisis and economic ruin for some industries such as airline and shale with flights cancelled and record low oil prices right now .

Bitcoin has done nothing other than replicate the market and go down more than the market. It has not been any sort of hedge or non-correlated asset to the market or anyone's portfolio. I think the myth about bitcoin has been busted now well and truly. All the false claims, pumpers and bitcoin nuts have been exposed by a thing called...reality. People would be better of right now if they had held cash or AAA sovereign bonds like I do and said all along .

In truth, Bitcoin is doing pretty well with -4% YTD against -20% of stock markets, but there is a need to see a long term point of view. If you look for short opportunities, you will be burned as others with a similar approach. Smart people said many years ago that crisis will help BTC to go up, but not during the crisis rather after that once new dozens trillion of stimulus land on banks that will have to take a risk for high-risk reward investment once the dust is settled after the crisis. Those who watched the drop of one most liquid market (OIL) about 75% in two months have no more arguments about high volatility. Next positive thing is that people who were scared by the crisis and did not know if BTC will survive will have another proof that the train runs further. The inflation of BTC is still high, I personally look forward to seeing BTC price after nine years once three next halving happen and the BTC market will not have to absorb so much money due to high current inflation. At the current price is still like ten million dollars every day

 

[Martin Everson]

In truth, Bitcoin is doing pretty well with -4% YTD against -20% of stock markets, but there is a need to see a long term point of view. If you look for short opportunities, you will be burned as others with a similar approach. Smart people said many years ago that crisis will help BTC to go up, but not during the crisis rather after that once new dozens trillion of stimulus land on banks that will have to take a risk for high-risk reward investment once the dust is settled after the crisis. Those who watched the drop of one most liquid market (OIL) about 75% in two months have no more arguments about high volatility. Next positive thing is that people who were scared by the crisis and did not know if BTC will survive will have another proof that the train runs further. The inflation of BTC is still high, I personally look forward to seeing BTC price after nine years once three next halving happen and the BTC market will not have to absorb so much money due to high current inflation. At the current price is still like ten million dollars every day

You got a lot of faith in that governments i.e US will not choose to ban their banks from dealing with crypto companies or individuals and hence in effect create a global banking ban. For me the risk was too great and I sold BTC at circa $13,000 some years ago as I posted on here. I think if BTC can maintain purchasing power after any potential banking ban then it is credible. If it relies upon being able to be easily converted to fiat then it is not credible no matter how enthusiastic one is about BTC.

 

[void]

You got a lot of faith in that governments i.e US will not choose to ban their banks from dealing with crypto companies or individuals and hence in effect create a global banking ban. For me the risk was too great and I sold BTC at circa $13,000 some years ago as I posted on here. I think if BTC can maintain purchasing power after any potential banking ban then it is credible. If it relies upon being able to be easily converted to fiat then it is not credible no matter how enthusiastic one is about BTC.

I agree that the response to ban would be the breaking point in terms of future of crypto

I believe (and bet on it heavily) that it would survive since the ban would be a result of a real trouble in fiat system - hence great opportunity for crypto to prosper

last days clearly show that gold and crypto behave very similar - gold is more stable and mature instrument while crypto is much much more flexible and powerful to take over

at least you can buy crypto at the moment - you can't tell the same about physical gold in Europe at the moment

 

[Martin Everson]

That's very true - buying physical gold I think I mentioned before somewhere is going to be seen as a potential money laundering event in Europe sooner rather than later. Banks already list companies dealing in precious metals as a high risk activity so chances are buying and personally holding the physical metal will also be viewed in such a light also.

Anyway the system is broken and broke also. I look forward to the watershed moment to see if BTC floats or sinks without fiat convertibility (fiat convertibility banking wise). If BTC floats then its pretty much the end of government control of financial system in its present form. Anyone who transferred their wealth into BTC would then be free I guess. I can't see governments allowing this situation to occur sadly. Leaders of countries disappear for merely suggesting moving away from selling oil in dollars so I actually would like to see what would happen if BTC succeeds .

 

[KJK]

Anyone who transferred their wealth into BTC would then be free I guess. I can't see governments allowing this situation to occur sadly.

Uhm... this is a very interesting situation in terms of game theory. If all countries cooperated and decided to ban Bitcoin unilaterally, then there is no chance and no future for it.

However, is that realistically going to happen? My guess is not.
Countries often dislike each other, they have different interests and you can see that in other aspects of life
- one state bans marihuana, the neighbouring one makes it legal
- one state bans gambling, the neighbouring state builds casinos on the border to attract citizens
- one country sets high taxes, neighbouring microstate markets itself as a haven for tax refugees from the former country...

I like this quote by Stanley Kubrick:
The great nations have always acted like gangsters, and the small nations like prostitutes.

Leaders of countries disappear for merely suggesting moving away from selling oil in dollars so I actually would like to see what would happen if BTC succeeds .

Iran? I'm not saying anything but I must admit that when countries get into disagreements with USA or with Saudis, strange things sometimes happen...

 

[void]

Uhm... this is a very interesting situation in terms of game theory. If all countries cooperated and decided to ban Bitcoin unilaterally, then there is no chance and no future for it.

However, is that realistically going to happen? My guess is not.
Countries often dislike each other, they have different interests and you can see that in other aspects of life
- one state bans marihuana, the neighbouring one makes it legal
- one state bans gambling, the neighbouring state builds casinos on the border to attract citizens
- one country sets high taxes, neighbouring microstate markets itself as a haven for tax refugees from the former country...

I like this quote by Stanley Kubrick:
The great nations have always acted like gangsters, and the small nations like prostitutes.

great point - luckily for all of us between countries there is almost capitalism and the most free (not truly though) market on the planet - this is a surprisingly powerful fact

and yes, there are powerful violent bastards (no need to name) that have means to (not only) threaten to others...

 

[Martin Everson]

Uhm... this is a very interesting situation in terms of game theory. If all countries cooperated and decided to ban Bitcoin unilaterally, then there is no chance and no future for it.

It actually only requires the US alone to ban it. The cascading regulatory effect will force every bank in the world that deals in USD to also ban it automatically. Correspondence banking relationships in USD require all banks that want to use USD to follow US blacklist, sanctions, restrictions and rules as the money passes and settles ultimately via New York Fed and hence US has domain over all USD transactions globally. No international bank in the world will want to be cut off from USD or even be put on US blacklist.

Just watch if tomorrow US says bitcoin is banned. Every bank operating in USD will ban it also. They have no choice. No bank wants to end up like BOV in Malta having to use an indirect relationship to get access to USD via Raiffeisen bank in Austria....lol.

Iran? I'm not saying anything but I must admit that when countries get into disagreements with USA or with Saudis, strange things sometimes happen...

Iraq, Libya both tried to move away from dollar and it didn't end well. Iraq even asked US soldiers to leave Iraq recently after killing of Iranian General but US blackmailed them saying they will be shut out of dollar and all went silent .

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-wa...k-account-if-troops-told-to-leave-11578759629

You got to de-dollarize in silence like Russia is doing i.e offload your US Treasuries and smile in Trumps face but laugh behind his back...no open confrontation . These US guys don't play fair. They will terrorise your financial system if you don't do what they say...lol....ask Turkey.

 

[OTR365]

Bitcoin was in sell-off mode as any assets, it's a sign of panic, but the longterm view is positive for me.

Already in the middle of the gold collapse, it was known that lots of investors had to meet margin calls on their Lombard loans. As for the physical gold/paper gold premium, three of the four big Swiss refineries had to close due to coronavirus. The markup will disappear over time, but I do enjoy seeing bullion trading way over paper.

I suspect the story with bitcoin's hard fall is very similar: Some traders took leveraged long positions in order to profit on the coming halving. They got burned badly. Also, hedge fund participation in bitcoin has grown a lot in recent years. When the price goes down, those guys don't HODL, but cut their losses - even go short.

The inflation of BTC is still high, I personally look forward to seeing BTC price after nine years once three next halving happen and the BTC market will not have to absorb so much money due to high current inflation. At the current price is still like ten million dollars every day.

A very good point. It is about 37 days to halving, and in this time bitcoin will inflate by 460M USD. If miners would sell all their coins, that amount of money would be needed for bitcoin just to maintain this price level. At the current 124 billion market cap, bitcoin is still too small for many institutional investors. At 1 trillion market cap, bitcoin would be both more useful/liquid, and perhaps less likely to get banned.

Stopping the World economy for months will lead into a serious solvency crisis for companies and countries. In case the US dollar strengthens, the doomsday might arrive very fast. There are not many assets that are independent of the financial system. In case we end up with e.g. a debt jubilee, governments will try to close all exits before the haircuts begin.

 

[wonderwhat]

That's very true - buying physical gold I think I mentioned before somewhere is going to be seen as a potential money laundering event in Europe sooner rather than later. Banks already list companies dealing in precious metals as a high risk activity so chances are buying and personally holding the physical metal will also be viewed in such a light also.

Anyway the system is broken and broke also. I look forward to the watershed moment to see if BTC floats or sinks without fiat convertibility (fiat convertibility banking wise). If BTC floats then its pretty much the end of government control of financial system in its present form. Anyone who transferred their wealth into BTC would then be free I guess. I can't see governments allowing this situation to occur sadly. Leaders of countries disappear for merely suggesting moving away from selling oil in dollars so I actually would like to see what would happen if BTC succeeds .

You can create an IOU pegged to Bitcoin Price. Some Investments banks trying to offer this to BTC desperate clients based on reports. But one thing is certain, no one can prevent price crash caused by Gov actions.

BTC will die. Central Bank Coins going to pop up near soon.

 

[avalanche]

It actually only requires the US alone to ban it. The cascading regulatory effect will force every bank in the world that deals in USD to also ban it automatically. Correspondence banking relationships in USD require all banks that want to use USD to follow US blacklist, sanctions, restrictions and rules as the money passes and settles ultimately via New York Fed and hence US has domain over all USD transactions globally. No international bank in the world will want to be cut off from USD or even be put on US blacklist.

Just watch if tomorrow US says bitcoin is banned. Every bank operating in USD will ban it also. They have no choice. No bank wants to end up like BOV in Malta having to use an indirect relationship to get access to USD via Raiffeisen bank in Austria....lol.




Iraq, Libya both tried to move away from dollar and it didn't end well. Iraq even asked US soldiers to leave Iraq recently after killing of Iranian General but US blackmailed them saying they will be shut out of dollar and all went silent .

WSJ News Exclusive | U.S. Warns Iraq It Risks Losing Access to Key Bank Account if Troops Told to Leave

You got to de-dollarize in silence like Russia is doing i.e offload your US Treasuries and smile in Trumps face but laugh behind his back...no open confrontation . These US guys don't play fair. They will terrorise your financial system if you don't do what they say...lol....ask Turkey.

BTC might be beneficial to the plans of US (hell, who knows maybe US gov itself made BTC). If it has not been banned so far, they likely wont ban it in the next future. The very fact that Bakkt exists might be considered proof that US elites are positive with BTC

 

[void]

BTC might be beneficial to the plans of US (hell, who knows maybe US gov itself made BTC). If it has not been banned so far, they likely wont ban it in the next future.

from what I know second biggest owner of BTC is FBI, only Satoshi has/had more

not saying it's an argument for not banning it - actually if it's moved could be seen as a sign of upcoming problems :-D

 

[avalanche]

from what I know second biggest owner of BTC is FBI, only Satoshi has/had more

not saying it's an argument for not banning it - actually if it's moved could be seen as a sign of upcoming problems :-D

You dont take into account BTC holders who spreaded their wealth across hundreds of wallets to avoid popularity.