Just yesterday, I watched part two of an interview with famed investor Jim Rogers. He stated, as best as I can recall, that it will likely be better to be a farmer in 2023 than to work on Wall Street.
Jim Rogers also has been telling people to plow into Russian equities for many years now because "they are a
creditor nation". He also said in 1987 market crash that "he wanted to short but didn't think that the exchange will even be there to pay him out as he predicted a total economic collapse".
Also he has been Bullish on Commodities for the last few decades. If you keep saying it, eventually you will be right. It does not make you smart.
The guy is a
perpetual doomer predicting total collapse of the entire world for many decades. So far he has been 100% wrong, anybody following him would have underperformed in the good times, and losing -100% in the bad times.
Funnily enough I actually read an interview with him from last week in which he is gleefully talking about his amazing commodities predictions, and didn't say a single word about his awful Russia picks that resulted in -100% loss. Just google "Jim Rogers Russia" for a nice 15 minutes walk down memory lane...
And regarding his farming thoughts: Obviously he has not been talking to any farmers lately.
I talked with actual farmers and it seems from my very limited research that it is much smarter to buy the land and lease it to a farmer for a guaranteed yield, rather than farm it yourself and take the commodity price swing risk\weather-rain-drought risk\machinery costs\fertilizer costs swings\etc. Not to mention this literally means you put all your eggs in one basket = one piece of land in one country in which you are also exposed to land grabs by some new government\regulation\tax changes and the country has you by the balls- you can't sell your land in a hurry if you need to escape. This also comes back to a lack of liquidity- farms\land take a long time to sell especially in times of crisis when you need the money most, and it will take a few years just to break even on your
investment even if you are making 25% p.a. You need to be paid a premium for that lack of liquidity.
I'm sure it can be a good investment if you know what you are doing and are diversified enough.
What if you partner with a farm management company that is owned by a local multi-generational farming family in a country with a large and growing middle-class and where the farms provide quality jobs to the locals? Obviously, you do not choose a country that is infamous for its radicalism and socialism.
Tell that to families that invested and
built Shanghai, making billions until the communists rose to power. Since I know you like books I highly recommend you read "The Last Kings of Shanghai" about this particular subject and sad tale. The biggest investment risk - as anybody that invested in Russia found out - is political\regulatory risk and the only way to avoid it is to diversify.
Its all about politics it seems.
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