Where should one keep their wealth to avoid future potential sanctions?

[backpacker]

Been hearing that for at least 10 years, so far everybody that said that was wrong.

During these 10 years the value of this obscure "currency" declined significantly. Just open a chart and compare EUR ./. USD or EUR ./. CHF - not exactly a stellar example of a prosperous and we'll managed currency.

Every week in this forum people talk about how wires in USD are scrutinized\blocked and how everybody needs to avoid USD to keep their BK accounts alive (with some banks not even giving a USD IBAN at all), all these people end up using EUR instead.

.... which has very little to do with the value of a currency.
And the people who already today can only transact in EUR will anyway have to rethink their business model in light of Europe now stepping up its sanctions regime.

 

[369]

During these 10 years the value of this obscure "currency" declined significantly. Just open a chart and compare EUR ./. USD or EUR ./. CHF - not exactly a stellar example of a prosperous and we'll managed currency.

.... which has very little to do with the value of a currency.
And the people who already today can only transact in EUR will anyway have to rethink their business model in light of Europe now stepping up its sanctions regime.

EUR is a placeholder for Yuan and a proxy for the chinese so they can avoid us financial controls.Else EUR would be long time gone.
Like i posted already many times in 2012 they agreed on a tri polar monetary system (instead uni which US demanded) which will be USD,CNY,AU
Also maxmmm calling EUR a good currency with a track record of over 10% real inflation per year for nearly two decades makes me smile

 

[backpacker]

And when RMB is pegged to USD for now who needs USD and risk of arbitrary sanctions.

China will never peg RMB to USD in the traditional meaning of that word (e.g. AED or SAR or HKD pegged to USD -> aka "fixed rate peg"). That would be self-humiliation as it would clearly demonstrate that China does does not trust in the stability of its national currency.
It is, however, pegged in a more sophisticated (indirect) way to keep its value artificially low
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/030616/why-chinese-yuan-pegged.asp

We are going to eventually have two separate financial systems. One future thinking and dominated by China and CIPS and the other legacy and failing that will be dominated by US and USD.

That's quite possible. Specifically now, with the Euro having lost almost all its appeal.

 

[Martin Everson]

That would be self-humiliation as it would clearly demonstrate that China does does not trust in the stability of its national currency.

The RMB peg is more to do with competitive export power. By ensuring RMB does not appreciate too much and harm exports. The peg is what SNB had for CHF against EUR before they removed it some years go. It's a smart move that has worked against the US economically. Yes you cannot compare it to peg of AED etc.

 

[EuroKiss]

China will never peg RMB to USD in the traditional meaning of that word (e.g. AED or SAR or HKD pegged to USD -> aka "fixed rate peg"). That would be self-humiliation as it would clearly demonstrate that China does does not trust in the stability of its national currency.
It is, however, pegged in a more sophisticated (indirect) way to keep its value artificially low
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/forex/030616/why-chinese-yuan-pegged.asp
That's quite possible. Specifically now, with the Euro having lost almost all its appeal.

Russia already have her swift analogue:
SPFS
(Btw the page of the Central Bank of Russia is blocked in the triple-vaxed f**king italy…)
As per my previous post also India is on her way, and so on.
Swift per se is a very simple messaging protocol, what’s important is CBDC+messaging+cross border clearance.
As Martin Everson stated, China doesn’t want to hurt commerce with an overvalued currency, so maybe they will enforce a real division between RMB and Yuan (right now it is just a nuance).

 

[369]

Russia already have her swift analogue:
SPFS
(Btw the page of the Central Bank of Russia is blocked in the triple-vaxed f**king italy…)
As per my previous post also India is on her way, and so on.
Swift per se is a very simple messaging protocol, what’s important is CBDC+messaging+cross border clearance.
As Martin Everson stated, China doesn’t want to hurt commerce with an overvalued currency, so maybe they will enforce a real division between RMB and Yuan (right now it is just a nuance).

China is already switching their production from export to domestic needs since 2018.
In my personal opinion YUAN will stay solid to attract international investors to join CNY to make it a world reserve currency.

 

[EuroKiss]

If you want to know how the oil and gas market will be traded soon:
Petroyuan - Wikipedia

 

[Martin Everson]

I may start investigating putting some of my wealth into RMB with banks connected to CIPS system and offering UnionPay cards after reading the below. The big stumbling block is the bank account has to be in country that in end will not respect US or EU arbitrary sanctions. So maybe a Chinese bank in HK.

https://www.russia-briefing.com/new...s-key-banks-portfolios-and-implications.html/
P.S So Gazprombank and Sberbank were spared sanctions. I wonder why?

 

[JackAlabama]

I may start investigating putting some of my wealth into RMB with banks connected to CIPS system and offering UnionPay cards after reading the below. The big stumbling block is the bank account has to be in country that in end will not respect US or EU arbitrary sanctions. So maybe a Chinese bank in HK.

https://www.russia-briefing.com/new...s-key-banks-portfolios-and-implications.html/
P.S So Gazprombank and Sberbank were spared sanctions. I wonder why?

Holding under passports from which regions? Have my doubts with a western one.

 

[Martin Everson]

Holding under passports from which regions? Have my doubts with a western one.

Good question. A western passport won't be good. I need to think a bit more about it all.

 

[Golden Fleece]

P.S So Gazprombank and Sberbank were spared sanctions. I wonder why?

You must be watching fake news. Sberbank was sanctioned hard, forced to shut all its European divisions because they faced a financial collapse, and all their ADRs and GDRs were suspended. Just because a bank can still use SWIFT does not mean that it was not sanctioned. Sberbank was spanked hard.

https://www.reuters.com/business/fi...uropean-market-face-cash-outflows-2022-03-02/

Sberbank was among the list of Russian banks added to the UK and US sanctions lists after the invasion, with the British government highlighting the Kremlin’s controlling share and saying it was a “highly significant entity”.

https://www.theguardian.com/busines...of-europe-after-facing-failure-amid-sanctions
Now, there is a veto-proof majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress (which means any veto by President Biden would be overridden by Congress) calling for an import ban of Russian oil, which represents about 20% of Russian oil exports. We are not even close to an end of all this madness on both sides.

 

[backpacker]

Now, there is a veto-proof majority in both houses of the U.S. Congress (which means any veto by President Biden would be overridden by Congress) calling for an import ban of Russian oil, which represents about 20% of Russian oil exports.

Where did you get this number from? Oil exports from Russia to USA are nowhere near 20% of Russian oil exports. USA is not even under the top ten of oil export destinations ...

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100591/russia-main-crude-oil-export-destinations/And this explains it from both sides:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/3/how-much-oil-does-the-us-import-from-russia
Due to massive "self-sanctioning" by shippers and traders, further sanctions by the US with regards to oil will be.more of symbolic move. It will have a short term impact on prices but that's it - most likely.

 

[Golden Fleece]

Where did you get this number from? Oil exports from Russia to USA are nowhere near 20% of Russian oil exports. USA is not even under the top ten of oil export destinations ...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1100591/russia-main-crude-oil-export-destinations/

I could not access the pay site that you cited. It depends on the year. Before President Biden took office and killed the U.S. oil industry, the U.S. imported about 200k barrels of oil per day from Russia. Now, after Biden turned the U.S. from a net oil exporter to a net oil importer, it quadrupled to 800k barrels per day.

 

[backpacker]

I could not access the pay site that you cited. It depends on the year. Before President Biden took office and killed the U.S. oil industry, the U.S. imported about 200k barrels of oil per day from Russia. Now, after Biden turned the U.S. from a net oil exporter to a net oil importer, it quadrupled to 800k barrels per day.

Sorry, did not know about the paywall. The data is from 2020.
However, even newer data which is mentioned here (US imports, so you have to do the math) -> Percent Of U.S. Oil Imports From Russia Highest In Decades — At 3.5% does not account for 20% .

 

[EuroKiss]

Sberbank was spanked hard.

WE are spanked f**kin hard! Gasoline 2 freakin € per liter today!

 

[Martin Everson]

You must be watching fake news. Sberbank was sanctioned hard, forced to shut all its European divisions because they faced a financial collapse, and all their ADRs and GDRs were suspended. Just because a bank can still use SWIFT does not mean that it was not sanctioned. Sberbank was spanked hard.

The article says:

--- quote start

"The SWIFT disconnection does not directly impact Russian or Foreign bank account standard individual or business financial connectivity overseas as alternative options exist with Sberbank and Gazprombank. Account holders with any of the banks listed above may transfer their accounts to these banks and continue to access the SWIFT network. There are sanctions in place on Sberbank and Gazprombank but these do not affect normal bank account operating facilities."

---- quote end

Yes they were sanctioned let me stand corrected. What I meant to say is that they are not disconnected from SWIFT. Gas and oil sales will continue through them which makes sanctions pointless without hitting big ticket items.They are still connected to SWIFT and unlikely to be disconnected until west finds way to transact with Russia without them it is a largely symbolic exercise.

If there is something fake about the article please let me know and I will remove it. Otherwise I apologize for my choice of words of which what I meant to say is those banks are still connected to SWIFT.

P.S Yes Sberbank closed its European operations but that is not unexpected.

https://www.upi.com/Top_News/World-...ks-banned-swift-payment-system/3561646266510/
P.S Please lets be a bit careful when discussing facts here due to peoples sensitivities. It is not Putin or Russia's oil and gas sales harmed by these joke sanctions but ordinary Russian people. Collective punishment is never a good idea. If west was serious they would stop buying Russian fuel and send in their own armies to Ukraine to help. Instead the cowards allow their own citizens to volunteer to throw their lives away fighting in Ukraine against Russians. Then they send in weapons to Ukraine which is like pouring fuel on a fire. There are no calm sensible minds seeking a peaceful solution between both parties its all emotions and no logic.

WE are spanked f**kin hard! Gasoline 2 freakin € per liter today!

Will only get worse it seems. But maybe talks with Iran and a return to JCPOA will bring Iranian oil back on to market to calm things down.


P.S It is in nobodies interest especially our leaders to ratchet up tensions especially when its normal people who will suffer and not those high up. Again both sides should seek peace.

Lets return to topic please .

 

[JackAlabama]

WE are spanked f**kin hard! Gasoline 2 freakin € per liter today!

The euro is weak, that is why. Lost alot against harder currencies of which there only a few left.

 

[Golden Fleece]

WE are spanked f**kin hard! Gasoline 2 freakin € per liter today!

You got spanked many decades ago when EU nations placed absurd levels of taxation on gasoline. For example, Germans pays almost $3 per gallon in gasoline tax. Until just recently, Americans paid less than $3 for a gallon of gasoline, including all taxes. But Germans pay that amount just in taxes!

At least any price increases that you are now experiencing are dictated by real market factors, not taxes.

 

[RealDude]

WE are spanked f**kin hard! Gasoline 2 freakin € per liter today!

My company car does not care.

 

[backpacker]

I may start investigating putting some of my wealth into RMB with banks connected to CIPS system and offering UnionPay cards after reading the below.

Check the Philippines: Many local banks offer UnionPay cards. Every Chinese bank in the country + even the largest private bank of the Philippines (BDO - Banco de Oro). Many smaller also do. Regarding acceptance: In SE-Asia it is as widely accepted as Visa.

You will need at least an ACR-I card to open a bank account in the Philippines.