opinionable I agree, there are some different opinions on
Stay or go? UK’s non-doms prepare for scrapping of tax status
cannot share the ft article for copyright issues
the other big issue they mention is inheritance tax that would tax them based on the 40% of their worldwide assets...
(imho where there's a will there's a way... pretty sure there would be a solution for that too)
this should be the LSE study...
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/bn38.2022.pdf
they're estimating how people will respond to such a reform by seeing what happened when the 2017 deemed domicile reform went in full force.
The issue is that the 2017 reform targeted just a small niche of very UK tied people compared to the whole chunk of non-doms...
(people living already 15 years in UK and people born there),
Of course those for sure had/will have more difficulty to move away after such a long time.
But also the stats say another interesting thing... :
Most of these unreported income and gains (55%) belong to non-doms who arrived in the UK in the past five years.
This makes the treatment of those who have been in the UK for a relatively short period crucial to the total revenue that could be raised from a reformed policy.
These in my opinion could "
easily" move away. Know plenty of people that left in that range of time.
But then the study ends with:
Our estimates suggest that abolition of the remittance basis would lead to 0.3% of remittance basis users(77 people) leaving as a result of the reform. After accounting for this limited migration response, including the loss of existing tax paid by non-doms who leave, the additional tax that would be received is £3.23 billion. The net additional revenue to government, after also accounting for the loss of the remittance basis charge receipts, is £ 3.16 billion.
So they're telling me that just 77 people would leave in case of such a drastic reform...
That's where I don't believe a single line of that study after that
in the official stats you can find a big decrease in people after the 2017 tax reform, thousands of them left not just a few... and it was a small cohort:
https://www.gov.uk/government/stati...ntary-on-non-domiciled-taxpayers-in-the-uk--2
And I knew the study smelled BS because I know a few dozen of those exilees... they are real people and they left.
Some back to their country, some to Monaco, some to USA, some to Italy(that had just ratified the 100k flat tax), some to Spain(beckham law). Some to Singapore. Some are in Dubai, some in weird places...
There was a time some guys were flying from monaco (nice) to london with their jets every time it was needed...
And the figure below from HMRC paper tells me I am not wrong.
So imagine what could happen after totally terminating the regime...