‘Petrified’ non-doms poised to flee UK over Labour’s tax plans

[wellington]

Also IHT tax for trusts overseas.

For Now, us non-residents are 'safe' but i imagine they will eventually get round to some sort of US style tax for non-residents (not sure how they will sell it though) - fortunately in some / most countries we can just transfer our assets to our non-British spouses/children before that occurs with relatively low to zero taxation.

But for anyone considering leaving the UK, now is surely the time.

 

[Martin Everson]

Wait till they increase the capital gains tax rate from 20-28% to same level as income tax rate . I wonder how happy wealthy people would be paying 45% capital gains tax rate on their investments as opposed to 28%.....lol.

Capital gains tax has been tinkered with for 60 years – please Labour, leave it alone​

MSN

UK's Labour considers upping capital gains and inheritance taxes, Guardian reports​

MSN

Btw It is reported that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects 20% of UK non-doms to leave because of the tax raid. That's 13,760 of the 68,800 non-doms. Sounds very conservative (no pun intended) so lets see how numbers look after April 2025 .

 

[Alonzo]

Well, it's official now.

Keir Starmer names new cabinet, with Reeves as chancellor and Rayner as deputy PM

The prime minister appoints his top team after pledging “the work of change begins immediately”.

www.bbc.com

Labour is in power.

The FPTP voting system is aggressively disproportionate.

Labour got 33.8% of the vote (9.7m) while Tories got 23.7% (6.8m) but yet has less than 1/3 of Labour seats.

Then you have Reform with 4 MILLION votes but gained only 4 seats...

 

[Marshal]

Reform... gained only 4 seats...

Farage must be very upset

 

[oldtimer2]

We are long past governments needing to justify their tax hikes in a world were the top 10% tax payers are already providing 90% of the tax income. Nowadays the new taxes are called solidarity payments etc etc .... and nobody bats an eye . It's easy to think the rich should pay more. Too bad when all business is indirectly owned by the govm't due to the tax burdens...with bureaucrats calling the shots and everyone says EU is heading down the slippery slope. the answer is clear to the bureacrats - we have no idea how to boost gov income or the economy through expanding business incomes, so we simply take whatever is around now and leave it for the next gov to worry about the downstream effects on business. Look at France Italy Spain and the UK already to see where this route goes.

 

[manukahoney]

The FPTP voting system is aggressively disproportionate.

Labour got 33.8% of the vote (9.7m) while Tories got 23.7% (6.8m) but yet has less than 1/3 of Labour seats.

It is indeed. And it's been abused by all parties a long time.
I assume Tories decided to loose the election to save the party from being overthrown by Reform. But, yes, it's mind blowing that a minority of leftist get into major power thanks to FPTP system.

 

[EliasIT]

Do you guys believe it will change now in the UK ?

 

[manukahoney]

Do you guys believe it will change now in the UK ?

FPTP? No way. It's the perfect system for gerrymandering and with Labour lowering down the voting requirements (like age, necessity for ID etc) and possibly importing more migrants they might stay in power forever.
"Land doesn't vote".

 

[Marshal]

Do you guys believe it will change now in the UK ?

For average folks life should be better under Labour, but if you are a multimillionaire my guess they will try to "milk" you more in taxes. Money doesn't grow on trees so someone has to pay up.

 

[manukahoney]

-3200 net loss in 2023
-9500 in 2024
I assume the same amount will leave in 2025, so roughly a loss of 20-25 thousands of well-off families in 3 years or around 35k in last 7 years (since Brexit). Statistics if wonky, but several sources give more or less the same estimate. Brexit stated the trend, Ukrainian war scared away Russian money, Non-dom played a big part, Tory meltdown finished the job.

35k is not that much actually, considering that most of those lived in London and South East, some will keep the properties, some will still send their kids to British boarding schools, so it's not all doom and gloom.

 

[Cloudbanck]

For average folks life should be better under Labour, but if you are a multimillionaire my guess they will try to "milk" you more in taxes. Money doesn't grow on trees so someone has to pay up.

I mean the tories pretty much did labour policies: increased the size of government, maintained high taxes, increased crazy regulations and kept local politician power to make life difficult for local entrepreneurs (there are tens of thousands unknown entrepreneurs facing the same problems as Jeremy Clarksons farm, and Peter McCormacks football club).

It will just be more of the same now, would expect life of average folks to keep on in the same stagnant gradual loss of purchasing power trajectory. And in the next elections voters will be disillusioned with Labour.

 

[manukahoney]

And in the next elections voters will be disillusioned with Labour.

Nope. Labour will get at least 3-4 years credit of public trust because every single problem will be explained "It's Tory fault, they f-d up the country in the last 14 years".
So they will easily win the next election, maybe without a super-majority, but very comfortably. Combine that with mass migration (ie uneducated poor Labour voters) and you can imagine 20+ years of uninterrupted rule by socialists.

 

[Martin Everson]

Labour is coming for your wealth – here’s where to escape their taxes​

MSN

For average folks life should be better under Labour, but if you are a multimillionaire my guess they will try to "milk" you more in taxes. Money doesn't grow on trees so someone has to pay up.

What you said is what the public hopes for......

It will just be more of the same now, would expect life of average folks to keep on in the same stagnant gradual loss of purchasing power trajectory. And in the next elections voters will be disillusioned with Labour.

.....but this is likely the reality under Labour

Nope. Labour will get at least 3-4 years credit of public trust because every single problem will be explained "It's Tory fault, they f-d up the country in the last 14 years".
So they will easily win the next election, maybe without a super-majority, but very comfortably. Combine that with mass migration (ie uneducated poor Labour voters) and you can imagine 20+ years of uninterrupted rule by socialists.

If a switch is made to proportional representation who knows what the landscape could look like.

Poll: Labour voters back proportional representation over first past post​

Poll: Labour voters back proportional representation over first past post - LabourList

first-past-the-post-labour-proportional-representation

labourlist.org

 

[manukahoney]

If a switch is made to proportional representation who knows what the landscape could look like.

Ok, let's imagine that. So Labour will not win with a super-majority, but rather have to form alliances with LibDem or Greens or new British Muslim party (mark my words, will be a thing in the UK), so anyways they will be in power. The only way they can lose if something majorly bad happens (war, natural disaster) and they fail in handling the situation (like most of the politicians do), so people will elect someone else to "fix the UK".
UK is not a poor country, there is a significant portion of well-off people and middle-class folks who tend to vote Conservative or someone similar. But it's much less than 40%, the rest are youth (Labour/Green), "assimilated" migrants (will vote for whoever supports Palestine more), local rednecks (Labour) and white unhappy women (LibDem/Labour/whoever supports Palestine more). So the only way Tory can get into power again is to surgically fight for every constituency and invest heavily in propaganda to incite the fight between Labour supporters (Palestine, LGBTQ and women rights are the current go-for, there surely will be something).

 

[Martin Everson]

UK is not a poor country, there is a significant portion of well-off people and middle-class folks who tend to vote Conservative or someone similar.

The tories do not stand for what they used to stand for which was low tax and business friendly etc. Under tory government UK has witnessed some of the biggest tax rises such as a 32% increase in corporate tax from 19% to 25% and VAT from 17.5% to 20%. They are also forced by the far right elements of the party i.e Braverman etc to push a daft anti immigration stop the boats agenda. Polls have shown immigration is not even in the top 3 concerns of British voters anyway. They failed to understand this and got served their papers to leave office by the public when they kept harping on about the daft Rwanda plan and not on more important issues.

General election 2024: what are the most important issues for voters? | YouGov

While 2019 may have been the Brexit election, few see it as a top issue this time round

yougov.co.uk

We can also see how Reform UK split the conservative vote as Labours share of the vote was not exactly impressive. I don't think people believe in the conservative party any more and those that cannot stand Labour voted other parties such as Reform UK. Basically an anything but conservative vote took place. If tories come back to power it wont be any time soon under any system until the memory of their 14 years of complete failure in office is erased from peoples minds. A 250+ seat loss is nothing short of a collapse and they need to analyse carefully what went wrong.

Also UK is a poor country with some very rich people...lol. Poor productivity and growth in absolute poverty and people are becoming worse off every day is a problem. There is a lack of investment in the right things such as improving productivity. The UK is also seeing the biggest rise in absolute poverty which is not good.

So I think UK have made a major mistake by cancelling non-dom scheme. They will not raise much money from the change. It would have been smarter to even bring in a super high non-dom fee like £200k a year non-dom fee. There would be many who would have stayed and paid.

P.S Good discussion and feel free to reply but also lets stick to the topic which is non-doms fleeing

 

[oldtimer2]

I think malta sees an opportunity to win some of those flee'ing non-doms via its Nomad program, which they raised from 32k to 42k minimum income but extended the number of years total allowable stay from 3 to 4 years. Easy solution for the wealthy and giving them up to 4 years - plenty of time for people to get used to malta and maybe decide to swap to some other program and stay. As for Labour changing anything - I think Truss has trying for the only viable way forward - but by then it was probably far too late to lower taxes, cut gown't expenditure and rely on British entrepreneurial spirit to increase the size of the taxation pot over time (to offset shorter term increased borrowing). I think it was the only option to potentially make the UK attractive again to entrepreneurs, and especially for local entrepreneurs to get them to stay rather than bolt out of the UK as soon as their income is high enough or their invention advanced enough. Compare that to the good old days when England and Scotland were world powerhouses for invention and industry, prior to all the money moving away. There are no great UK IT companies left in the UK since ARM sold to the Asians. But international banking perhaps wants every country in the same model - high taxes to pay high gown't borrowing debt. Keeping the wealthy non-doms is no answer to the chronic troubles in the UK.. Same as the EU.. lack of competitiveness, too much government over spending more than it raises leading to constant tax increases, all discentivising local business and increasing small business burdens and so stifling opportunities to grow. Flee'ing non-doms will accelerate the continued spiral downwards of the UK / EU approach to ruling. I imagine the Labour Party will not have any answers and within a couple of years will need a big distraction campaign.. something like "lets go back into the EU again". to keep all the voters distracted from the chronic problems. A war will achieve similar distractive results. War isn't the popular option that it was in times past, only anachronisms like Putin still think it's the way forward. Of course as long as comrades like the French government remain big investors in armaments companies there is always a chance wars might still find a way to happen or risk loosing the dividends from those investments. It's a complex world, and I think flee'ing non-dogs feel the chill of changing times where governments can now apply any new taxes they like as long as they are targeted to the so called "rich".who already one way or another pay the majority of taxes not to mention flow down benefits Overspending governments everywhere are uniting to narrow the options. The majority of voters will never object to higher taxes on the wealthy. How long malta and Cyprus etc will be able to keep their special tax regimes is yet to be seen. Some current programs have end dates in 2030. It seems various EU tax reduction programs have such end dates. So Malta and Cyprus might be interim locations at best pending the EU shutting the door on them... but for now what other options exist if you want English speaking and near to Western Europe and a robust local economy? I wonder whose stats we will be able to trust about the real number of flee'ing non-doms? Will anyone publish stats on where such flee'ing people decide to relocate to? Those would be interesting stats for those who follow the money .

 

[Martin Everson]

I wonder whose stats we will be able to trust about the real number of flee'ing non-doms? Will anyone publish stats on where such flee'ing people decide to relocate to? Those would be interesting stats for those who follow the money

Good question.

Visual Capitalist gives some idea of where millionaires are flowing too in general but no idea how reliable the data is.

And so does Henley Global below. Both parties data have different figures however .

Henley Private Wealth Migration Dashboard 2024

The Henley Private Wealth Migration Dashboard 2024 tracks wealth and investment migration trends worldwide. Find the Henley Private Wealth Migration Dashboard here.

www.henleyglobal.com

 

[Cloudbanck]

Well the Visual Capitalist graphic shown is for 2022, and Henley is projected for 2024. But they paint the same picture, millionaires leave the BRICS countries plus the UK, and move to the UAE, Singapore and the West (US, Australia, Switzerland, Mediterranean countries).

Makes sense, if I was a millionaire in China Id leave too, the risk of the chinese government making you disappear would not be worth taking. Why the chinese go to high tax Australia isnt totally obvious though, but proximity is a factor I guess, and also that it's easy to invest/launder money in Australian property, and that there is a sizeable chinese community there.

 

[Martin Everson]

Treasury raked in £9bn from non-doms last year​

MSN

--- quote start

The Treasury raked in almost £9bn in taxes from non-doms last year, official data has shown, as Labour prepares a crackdown that threatens an exodus of the super-wealthy.

Revenue from non-domiciled taxpayers jumped by £474m to £8.9bn in the tax year ending in 2023, according to data published by HM Revenue & Customs.

This was up 6pc year-on-year and the highest total since the tax year ending in 2017, when the Government tightened the rules on who was eligible to qualify for the tax status.

Experts warned that Labour’s plans to abolish the non-domiciled tax system risks drying up a crucial revenue stream for the Treasury.
So-called non-doms are people who live in the UK but who have registered a permanent address overseas. They have to pay British tax rates on the money that they earn within the UK, but not on earnings made internationally.

The number of non-dom taxpayers in the UK grew by 7pc year-on-year to 74,000, the latest figures showed. This was driven by an 18pc surge in new arrivals, with 12,900 non-dom taxpayers moving to the UK in the tax year ending April 2023.

But wealth managers have warned this inward flow could soon go into reverse, as Labour’s planned overhaul risks pushing some of the highest earners to lower tax jurisdictions such as Italy, which has a flat annual charge of €100,000 (£85,000) on income earned abroad.
Nicholas Hyett, investment manager at Wealth Club, said: “Non-doms will soon be extinct in the UK … these numbers are therefore a glimpse into the past, soon to be part of the fossil record.”

Mr Hyett urged Rachel Reeves to make sure not to alienate wealthy individuals with the new tax system.

He said: “While taxing the rich might raise more revenue, it also runs the risk that the global elite decide to move their taxable wealth somewhere with a lighter touch tax regime.”

More than two thirds of the £8.9bn paid by non-doms came from income tax, while £2.3bn came via National Insurance contributions. A further £384m came from capital gains tax.

--- quote end

Just goes to show how important non-doms are to UK with average non-dom contributing £120k in taxes.

Tax from UK’s 74,000 non-doms paid for 18 days of NHS spending in 2022​

MSN

 

[manukahoney]

Just goes to show how important non-doms are to UK with average non-dom contributing £120k in taxes.

DIRECT taxes, if I may.
Add to this stamp duties on multiple properties, VAT on spends etc etc. And most of it without putting any strain on public resources, ie going to private hospitals, sending kids to private schools, not claiming any benefits etc. And that is not counting the corporate taxes that are generated by those who moved in the UK, various venture investments and so on.
It's a stupid populist move that has nothing to do with economics, however that what voters are happy to swallow and politicians gladly offer.