Gotta admit that I too enjoyed the thoughts that you shared. Black swan events do occur but I doubt that anything will significantly impact Bitcoin since too much is being held and acquired by a relatively small handful of manipulating powers.
But I'd reconsider that 2-month max that you're thinking of... Ever heard the saying "Never short Bitcoin"? For the most part, I've found this saying to be true and Bitcoin has proven to be the best play for long-term wealth generation, particularly when holding it for the long term and even better when acquiring it regularly when the price falls. Cash out if you really need to but if you do, you may want to set some of that capital aside to buy more BTC when you can.
I respect your views very much, as I have had the same outlook in the past.
But let me explain my mindset a little. I have been mining BTC in 2011 on my old laptop, buying and trading on MTGox ( I even had a meeting with Karpeles at the Mt.Gox office in Shibuya (who was a fatty wearing a black Metallica t-shirt then). Only reason why I haven't join them was that 'officially' the staff wasn't allowed to trade, even in private.
Later on, I got rugged by MTGox (like so many) for >1000 BTC, and then I had enough and I left the market for a while. All I have left from that time is a Yubikey with the MTGox logo on it in my drawer. And for some J@*#(&%Y@ reason, I missed the deadline to file my claim with the trustee (really, really stupid reason: my email changed and so I missed the deadline by a week, as I read about it on the net too late).
I reentered the market later on @ $200-$600, and have been just a hodler, accumulating and hodling strong. On the side, I was working on the technical side with some of the bigger blockchains (they are still going strong today, but I won't DOXX myself by mentioning which).
Coming to my point, during the years I saw my wealth dropping 80% during the bear markets, as I didn't sell, following the same ideology you mentioned above. I still can remember how it feels, and I still can see myself going to some wage cuck job and checking the price on my phone in the morning on the way to work, seeing my wealth evaporate.
What I learned from it?
NEVER AGAIN.
What it did to me?
It killed my emotions in trading.
I don't care anymore if it goes up or down, I just want to make a profit from each move.
I feel nothing losing 100K in 3h anymore. After experiencing it so many times, it killed the emotions inside me and made me just rational instead of emotions or 'wants' taking over, learn risk management, and trade both sides.
Cycles are a fact, and taking profits is healthy. No one ever lost money taking profit.
One can always re-enter the market.
Mathematically, BTC is getting more scarce every day, as less and less of it get mined, while the world population increases, and people - as well as financial institutions - are purchasing more of it.
But let me tell you something, that very financial institutions are not hodlers, but make money trading, using options, futures, and everything they can get hold of, to make profits buying and selling. And they can see that the market believes in halving cycles, you can bet that they gonna short it hard when the time is ripe.
Should I hodl it, while the banksters make billions with their shorts, and lose 60-80% again, having to wait for years for it to get back up? That would be the definition of insanity, doing the same thing over and over again.
Shorting BTC with 10% of wealth? That's risk management, if my timing is wrong and I lose that, I am still good.
At least I get something to do, while waiting for a re-entry about 1-2 years later.
Reentering BTC lower? Hell yeah, sure thing.
But that's just me, everyone does his own thing.
