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It finally happened, BITCOIN broke past $100K!

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for those who care about USD denomination we are very likely far from the "conventional" top (almost one year I'd say) but I don't think it matters....
if all the expected US regulation change as expected then we will see such a massive institutional adoption and order of magnitude bigger demand over supply then no cycle will happen again
if the US build BTC national reserve then it might 5x over night and an unprecedented wave will spread through the world.... at least this makes sense to me, what do I know about others...

good for those who don't care about USD/BTC any more
Yeah I don't believe we will see a -50% day on btc ever again (unless tether goes tits up, and if that happens, arbitrage opportunities will be insanely good).
 
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tether is now part of the new gov.
yes, USDT strengthens its position
But in such a for the time unlikely case, would not all the tether capital flee into btc?
that's pretty optimistic... there will be a place for stable coins for quite a while (as long as dollar exists)
 
It's too early imo, we have at least a few more months of upside against USD.

BTC cycles have been extremely predictable for the last decade, I bet we get at least 4 more months of upside.
For reference:

- 2013 cycle
  • Top: November 29, 2013 (~$1,150)
  • Bottom: January 14, 2015 (~$170)
  • Duration: ~1 year, 1 month (about 396 days).
- 2017 cycle
  • Top: December 17, 2017 (~$20,000)
  • Bottom: December 15, 2018 (~$3,150)
  • Duration: ~1 year (about 365 days).
- 2021 cycle
  • Top: November 10, 2021 (~$69,000)
  • Bottom: November 21, 2022 (~$15,500)
  • Duration: ~1 year (about 375 days).
Market cap and volume will play a huge role in the future of BTC so I don't believe this time around you will get a chance to buy btc at 80% discount in 1 year time.

If you say that the cycles have been/are predictable, and as can be seen from your post the tops have been 4 years (+/- 2 weeks) apart, and now is 4 years from the last top, why based on that timeline, should there be another 4 moths of upside?
Not that I am arguing further upside from now. ;)
... just the data presented and conclusions drawn do not line up imo.
 
If you say that the cycles have been/are predictable, and as can be seen from your post the tops have been 4 years (+/- 2 weeks) apart, and now is 4 years from the last top, why based on that timeline, should there be another 4 moths of upside?
Not that I am arguing further upside from now. ;)
... just the data presented and conclusions drawn do not line up imo.
Bottom to peak in 2017 took 1068 days, and in the 2021 cycle it took 1061 days.
If you add 1000 days to the current bottom (which was around 16k on November 21 2022) you land on August 17 2025.
BUT I will say, in 2013 we did get a shorter bull market which only lasted about 750 days from bottom to peak (and that would land on dec 10 2025).

I'm not into timing tops perfectly, nobody can do that and you also can't sell that much at the top anyways, I like to sell on the way up and buy on the way down slowly, with no rush.
 
Bottom to peak in 2017 took 1068 days, and in the 2021 cycle it took 1061 days.
If you add 1000 days to the current bottom (which was around 16k on November 21 2022) you land on August 17 2025.
BUT I will say, in 2013 we did get a shorter bull market which only lasted about 750 days from bottom to peak (and that would land on dec 10 2025).

I'm not into timing tops perfectly, nobody can do that and you also can't sell that much at the top anyways, I like to sell on the way up and buy on the way down slowly, with no rush.

to be precise... the last bottom was probably a bit earlier as FTX was just a pleasant circumstance and sweet spot to buy with huge discount but without it we wouldn't go any deeper I believe
 
No hurry, give it time until end of February (if the accelerated cycle theory is right), it might go higher than that.
After that, seek shelter (in every kind of way, all markets are primed for a drop). Of course, no financial advice.
I have time, just won't risk to miss out of profits and don't want to make huge loss.
 
Just a drop or start of the bear market?
In short ........ I don't know, but currently the stock valuations are higher than ever, and it's cyclical.

Long version?

We are pretty much at an ATH, and a bear is just a part of the cycle. Or we get even more than that, something like a jubilee / debt reset.

You can see that we are almost or already in a recession. It rises slowly, and then it spikes.
1734100090531.webp


EU economy even worse, totally fucked (by their 'ally', the USA, bombing the Nordstream pipeline). Even if all the 'refugees', that have been supposed to be cheap labor for the factories (best case scenario) wanted a job now, they'd have to move to China, as all the factories are being closed because of the insane politics and energy prices in the EUSSR.
https://en.topcor.ru/45343-flagman-nemeckoj-avtopromyshlennosti-polnostju-uhodit-iz-germanii.html

Even Volkswagen is closing down everything as well now.
Morgenthau plan and Kalergi plan at the same time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morgenthau_Plan

Oh, does anyone want to laugh or cry about the stupidity of the German carbon agenda and their stupid laws to outsource their money to China, without anything in return? Governments hate their own people.
https://www.dw.com/en/how-a-chinese-firm-ran-a-billion-euro-carbon-credit-scam/a-71010148

Nobody expected the Ukraine conflict (not less than a senseless genocide on young people - on both sides) to last so long, even less people expected the genocide in middle east, which is expanding daily by the war criminals without any opposition besides of empty talk (and not even that). But why would anyone be surprised about it, just look at the leaders and their 'friends'.
https://globaleuronews.com/2023/06/...o-putins-comment-that-zelensky-is-not-jewish/
https://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jews-in-the-biden-administration
https://www.vtforeignpolicy.com/202...rumps-jewish-advisers-and-pro-israel-cabinet/

Now Canada is stealing weapons from their cuck citizens and donates them to Ukraine, it means they will all land on the black market and be distributed all around Europe. Wait, why is Trudeau so scared of his own people?
https://www.usnews.com/news/world/a...irearms-and-proposes-donating-guns-to-ukraine

No one expects CN-TW conflict getting out of control now either, but every thinking person can see that it would be the perfect time for that, as the US and its lackeys are busy using up their weaponry elsewhere.

Oh, not to forget that our favorite overlords, predicting 'shock events' and 'cyberattacks':
https://web.archive.org/web/2024081...sks-to-look-out-for-in-the-post-pandemic-era/

Sorry for all that off topic stuff, but black swan events are a thing. The 'cyber-attacks' are being announced by the WEF for long time already, as was their plandemic, so that the time might be ripe soon. Not that it would cause much harm to BTC itself, but if the internet would be affected it could affect our ability to trade it as we do today, and the stock markets too.

All of that might be poison for the financial markets.

Fortunately I am already far away in 'lala-land' myself, where I could care less about all of that, as it won't affect me physically, and I am pretty sure the internet will be still working here if s**t goes down. Maybe I'll even turn on the ASIC miner if the time comes.

I am not a doomer, but every year I see more and more weird s**t happening.
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best.
 
That was an overwhelmingly detailed response from you,such a great explanation and a really enjoyable read. It makes so much sense!

So that's why you’ve sold all your crypto, including BTC, because you think it has peaked now and won’t reach the levels it was at last week when everything was really high?

That being said, would you also say there’s a chance BTC could go higher, but it would depend on certain external events taking place?
 
Stay with BTC, shitcoins go up a lot and down even more.

Don't remind me. I lost 26 BTC and 48h sleep because of betting on the wrong side during the BTC vs. BTC.CASH hashrate flipping drama.

Like BETAMAX vs. VHS, in the end BTC won. (Lol, I think I must be getting old, no one even knows VHS anymore.)
Thanks for the advise, much appreciated.

I remember very well VHS ;)
 
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That was an overwhelmingly detailed response from you,such a great explanation and a really enjoyable read. It makes so much sense!

So that's why you’ve sold all your crypto, including BTC, because you think it has peaked now and won’t reach the levels it was at last week when everything was really high?

That being said, would you also say there’s a chance BTC could go higher, but it would depend on certain external events taking place?

I haven't sold my crypto yet (well, that's a lie, I sold some at 82K and 96K to cover margins, as the interest exploded, but I re-bought even more during the dip a few days ago. I am cautiously bullish, and positioned for the last up leg (max. 2 months, then I'll be out and getting ready to short after breakdown and retest (just risking 10%).

BTW: I am glad that you liked my thoughts.

Here is a more technical analysis of a possible bear market in the near future.
He's pretty diligent, and saves me so much time:
 
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I haven't sold my crypto yet (well, that's a lie, I sold some at 82K and 96K to cover margins, as the interest exploded, but I re-bought even more during the dip a few days ago. I am cautiously bullish, and positioned for the last up leg (max. 2 months, then I'll be out and getting ready to short after breakdown and retest (just risking 10%).

BTW: I am glad that you liked my thoughts.

Here is a more technical analysis of a possible bear market in the near future.
He's pretty diligent, and saves me so much time:

Gotta admit that I too enjoyed the thoughts that you shared. Black swan events do occur but I doubt that anything will significantly impact Bitcoin since too much is being held and acquired by a relatively small handful of manipulating powers.

But I'd reconsider that 2-month max that you're thinking of... Ever heard the saying "Never short Bitcoin"? For the most part, I've found this saying to be true and Bitcoin has proven to be the best play for long-term wealth generation, particularly when holding it for the long term and even better when acquiring it regularly when the price falls. Cash out if you really need to but if you do, you may want to set some of that capital aside to buy more BTC when you can.
 
I haven't sold my crypto yet (well, that's a lie, I sold some at 82K and 96K to cover margins, as the interest exploded, but I re-bought even more during the dip a few days ago. I am cautiously bullish, and positioned for the last up leg (max. 2 months, then I'll be out and getting ready to short after breakdown and retest (just risking 10%).

BTW: I am glad that you liked my thoughts.

Here is a more technical analysis of a possible bear market in the near future.
He's pretty diligent, and saves me so much time:
very good, I will watch the video in a few minutes. What you explained so far makes sense.
 
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read before you shout...

using and mining is something different - but I guess it doesn't matter to pay attention to details when one has some agenda to push
There is no agenda or shilling because if everyone on this thread dropped BTC and switched to XMR, it wouldn't change anything in the wider world. My posts are not an attempt to wake up the masses.

The point is if you look at cryptos with a view to making profit, you're in it for the wrong reasons. Mining is just a way to make a bit of free money on the side, it is not the focus of cryptos, which is decentralized currencies. This misuse of BTC has allowed the governments to control your BTC, defeating the entire purpose of its existence. Monero is currently the only viable currency to keep out of government control now. If BTC goes the way of tulips, those who misused it for profit will have deserved their losses.

ofc youre supposed to make a profit. Thats why every joe and jane from shitholes hold usd and not their shithole currency. Why is that?
Because they will make a profit. The driver of all economic activity is profit.

Another avenue are the oversees retriees, theres a whole bunch of threads only if mr sixpack should transfer his retirement money this month into the shithole currency or next month or next year. Again, all purely profit driven motives.
Its only natural to have profit motives when dealing with fx (aka holding bitcoin over my national fiat currency is the same form of speculation, some dude is holding usd over kwatchas or pulas.)


no

sheeps gonna sheeple, this is no arg here you provide.


it still is. you provide no proof otherwise. Even more so than before.
You're not supposed to use it as a get rich scheme.

What proof are you asking for, that BTC is primarily used for speculation and hardly anyone actually buys pizzas with it? This demand for proof of something so blatantly obvious is just an attempt at stalling the discussion. But here:

Almost no one uses Bitcoin as currency, new data proves. It’s actually more like gambling

Most bitcoin owners use them to speculate on crypto markets, survey finds

Agreed the sheep are going to sheep, and that's why KYC now controls most of the BTC investments whereas it didn't before. That's why BTC profits will now be taxed. That's why BTC can now be confiscated at the whims of the powers that be. BTC has become a poisoned well.
 
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