Similar for the US around 2032-35.
I think Germany might start edging back towards Russia. But they need to find some cohones. I mean the USA committed an act of war against them and Scholz did ZERO.This could happen overnight actually. Let me create a hypothetical scenario i.e China invades Taiwan and US retaliates by cutting China off from SWIFT and seizes its $760bn in US treasures (now established playbook since Russia saga). Countries continue to trade with China but this time totally outside the US dollar via China's CIPS payment network just like Russia using Yuan and local currencies. As it stands over 4,500 banking institutions from 183 countries have joined CIPS and more are joining each month. Remember China already has its banks in most countries around the world if you look at where i.e BOC has branches, so secondary sanctions by US will not work....lol. Business and trade will continue as China is and will remain a top trading partner to over 120 countries around the world. At this point dollars start flowing back into U.S causing inflation. US credit rating falls and US treasury yields rise as does US national debt, interest payments and foreign investment falls. A death cycle now emerges the US cannot escape and it implodes eventually and game over.
In terms of the EU it depends on how far they want to go which will cause their own end. Do they want EU to be a cold/hot war zone and univestable? What is Macron playing at? Do they want to be competitive by having cheap energy and low cost of production materials? A lot will be answered going forward. I don't like what I see happening in EU but the jury is out.
And as always......Get out of the EU while you still can .
P.S You can track the number of banks joining CIPS each month below in the annoucement releases. If anyone is betting on US and betting against China they are a damn fool.....lol.
https://www.cips.com.cn/en/index/index.html
Interesting scenarioThis could happen overnight actually. Let me create a hypothetical scenario i.e China invades Taiwan and US retaliates by cutting China off from SWIFT and seizes its $760bn in US treasures (now established playbook since Russia saga). Countries continue to trade with China but this time totally outside the US dollar via China's CIPS payment network just like Russia using Yuan and local currencies. As it stands over 4,500 banking institutions from 183 countries have joined CIPS and more are joining each month. Remember China already has its banks in most countries around the world if you look at where i.e BOC has branches, so secondary sanctions by US will not work....lol. Business and trade will continue as China is and will remain a top trading partner to over 120 countries around the world. At this point dollars start flowing back into U.S causing inflation. US credit rating falls and US treasury yields rise as does US national debt, interest payments and foreign investment falls. A death cycle now emerges the US cannot escape and it implodes eventually and game over.
In terms of the EU it depends on how far they want to go which will cause their own end. Do they want EU to be a cold/hot war zone and uninvestable? What is Macron playing at? Do they want to be competitive by having cheap energy and low cost of production materials? A lot will be answered going forward. I don't like what I see happening in EU but the jury is out.
And as always......Get out of the EU while you still can .
P.S You can track the number of banks joining CIPS each month below in the annoucement releases. If anyone is betting on US and betting against China they are a damn fool.....lol.
https://www.cips.com.cn/en/index/index.html
Well said. I second itI personally don't believe in a soviet run state, I believe in capitalism.
But china's economic will suffer deeply when sanctioned by US and I don't believe China will survive doing business with 3rd world countries.
Usa will sanction china and everyone who deals with china.
Also I don't belive usa will leave the spotlight without a war.
The Chinese know very well that their money machine is USA and I don't think they will mess around with that.
China is copying some tech of USA just to prove it's worth but I personally don't believe in a soviet run state,
2 things i don't agree withChina will switch to internal consumption to a large extent to offset a lot of this damage. But developed countries will still buy Chinese goods via these third countries. The same way Europe still buys Russia oil via India and other refiners. Demand for Chinese goods and components from west will not go away with sanctions as it has not with Russian oil and gas. That is the hard reality that nothing will work in west without Chinese components and even rare earth minerals etc..lol.
They cannot. BoC is in most countries and trade will continue outside the dollar.
In most scenarios I have seen with a war between US and China the US will lose. You cannot fight China in their backyard and hope to stand a chance of winning. You will be outnumbered and out gunned. China's military is huge and its capabilities are not limited.
Not true. US accounts for around 15% of China's exports. China has diversified its markets very well and can replace US demand by intenal demand down the line.
https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country
Again not true Tsinghua university in China alone is coming out with a lot of its own research in cutting edge technologies. China is leading in most tech and in next few years will likely lead in terms of semi conductor technology. It's frankly scary the speed of advancements China is making which is leading to US having no choice but to try and slow their advancement down by hook or crook.
2 things i don't agree with
1- Usa vs china at war
Usa will win 100%
2- usa tech vs china??? For real??
AIFair enough. Not gonna argue with that. We have seen US performance in Vietnam, Afghanistan and now against Houthi's in Yemen.....They achieved nothing in all cases I say no more....lol.
OK what tech does US posses that is more advanced than China?
They are already suffering.Export crashing.However in my opinion there is full intention in it by changing the econemy from an export one to a domestic one.Interesting scenario
But china's economic will suffer deeply when sanctioned by US and I don't believe China will survive doing business with 3rd world countries.
Usa will sanction china and everyone who deals with china.
Also I don't belive usa will leave the spotlight without a war.
The Chinese know very well that their money machine is USA and I don't think they will mess around with that. These days I see China is copying some tech of USA just to prove it's worth but I personally don't believe in a soviet run state, I believe in capitalism.
In most scenarios I have seen with a war between US and China the US will lose. You cannot fight China in their backyard and hope to stand a chance of winning. You will be outnumbered and out gunned. China's military is huge and its capabilities are not limited.
Again not true Tsinghua university in China alone is coming out with a lot of its own research in cutting edge technologies. China is leading in most tech and in next few years will likely lead in terms of semi conductor technology. It's frankly scary the speed of advancements China is making which is leading to US having no choice but to try and slow their advancement down by hook or crook.
You know the chinese company maybe which will produce these ?Tsinghua University’s Taichi Chip Surpasses Nvidia H100 in Energy Efficiency
You know the chinese company maybe which will produce these ?
If someone thinks that any country on this planet can win a total war with USA they must be nuts.
The biggest takeaway from the Ukraine war is the importance of drones . Chinese drones are used by both sides (DJI,MUGIN ,Altuel etc.. ) . China has the biggest drone manufacturing capabilities in the whole word (over 90%) . So I wouldn't think usa would win in a conventional war. And also larger drones like bayraktar(usa equivalent => mq9) have proven to be useless after the first months , because they are bulky and slow which makes them easy to shoot down .