Bitcoin below 31K - how far will this go?

[bizman]

It's about what you believe. Is there anything wrong in the believe of Bitcoin and crypto?

I hope it will rise to the roof of the Empire state building.

 

[Golden Fleece]

It's about what you believe. Is there anything wrong in the believe of Bitcoin and crypto?

I hope it will rise to the roof of the Empire state building.

Do know what is already on the roof of the Empire state building? Answer: GOLD!
https://www.nytimes.com/1950/07/28/...r climbed up,of the world's highest building.

 

[aage]

and down it goes again... let's hope it will rise to the 3 times highest ever

 

[johndunham]

It's about what you believe. Is there anything wrong in the believe of Bitcoin and crypto?

I hope it will rise to the roof of the Empire state building.

Nothing wrong with belief. It just has the tendency to bankrupt people.

 

[backpacker]

Even though I rarely agree with your opinions, this time I have to agree.
Crypto is a hype, it is the modern dot.com-bubble.
Of course, the technological advances it has brought to finance are obvious and are here to stay. Perhaps BTC will survive with some enthusiasts. But the rest of the market will be eaten up by banks & governments. Something like "The Revolution devours its children".
And that comes from someone who rode this crazy crypto bull-hype but then jumped ship because of having seen what happens to markets that go parabolic (Asian Tiger crisis, dot.com-bubble, housing crisis .... - at the end it's all the same).

Note: Equities pay a dividend - well, at least ten good ones do. What does crypto pay (not talking about these unsustainable Crypto Lending companies)?

Well, mainstream is waking up -> Crypto firms say thousands of digital currencies will collapse, compare market to early dotcom days
The "crypto bubble" copycats the "dot-com bubble".

 

[wellington]

8-15k (thinking 16k) but if the recession hits and depression then really bad, BTC never been a QT era either...

 

[04372]

It will be trading back inside the range in a few weeks time, same as SPX

 

[backpacker]

BTC will not disappear but the comparison to dot-com is valid and people who do not see the similarities are simply naive.
Ask yourself: Did MySpace disappear? Well, in theory it is still there - just that it is not usable anymore.

The reality for crypto is: There are to many small Newbies who are now panicking, exchanging their coins to fiat and therefore causing a downward spiral. Since there is no Plunge Protection Team, nobody stops this downward spiral. In fact, the current crypto collapse plays into the hands of governments (with the notable but irrelevant exception of El Salvador) and will expedite the adoption of CBDC.

It will not be long until we see a couple of Crypto Lending Platforms (who all pay unsustainably high interest rates to attract naive investors) will go bust.

As I said over and over --> Crypto firm Celsius pauses all transfers, withdrawals as markets tumble
And the next one will follow suit!

 

[369]

guys we follow a clear wyckoff schematic.News are made to justify these moves and not the other way round.
Small bounce till wednesday i guess and down to 18k (high probably caused by bad fed news with a 0.75 increase)

target hit now small bounce

 

[aage]

It's below 22K right now... I keep crossing my fingers the btc will go below 18K and then up.

 

[fortunespeculator]

It's below 22K right now... I keep crossing my fingers the btc will go below 18K and then up.

After 18 k and a brief rally should go to 12 k

 

[aage]

After 18 k and a brief rally should go to 12 k

You think 12K and what are the wise people say, when will it go up again ?

 

[fortunespeculator]

You think 12K and what are the wise people say, when will it go up again ?

Lets first get to 12k i will tell you once we are there.

 

[Golden Fleece]

You think 12K and what are the wise people say, when will it go up again ?

There is no need to wonder. At this point, it all depends on the stock markets because Bitcoin is now correlated to the stock markets. It is that simple. If the markets do down, then Bitcoin will go down (as investors deleverage). If the markets go up, then Bitcoin will likely go back up.

Just look at the price action today. A careful study of the hourly charts shows that Bitcoin bottomed at almost the same time as the stock markets. It also rebounded at the same time as the stock markets.

Anyone who owns or trades Bitcoin now needs to carefully follow the price action, and the underlying fundamentals, of the stock markets. It is impossible to follow the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin, because there are none (except perhaps in a few nations with capital controls). But the underlying fundamentals of the stock markets, which are terrible right now, will allow you to forecast the price action of Bitcoin.

If we enter a bear market (as the NASDAQ already is in), then Bitcoin is in deep trouble. If the stock markets decline for a year in a bear market, then Bitcoin will likely decline for a year.

 

[fortunespeculator]

There is no need to wonder. At this point, it all depends on the stock markets because Bitcoin is now correlated to the stock markets. It is that simple. If the markets do down, then Bitcoin will go down (as investors deleverage). If the markets go up, then Bitcoin will likely go back up.

Just look at the price action today. A careful study of the hourly charts shows that Bitcoin bottomed at almost the same time as the stock markets. It also rebounded at the same time as the stock markets.

Anyone who owns or trades Bitcoin now needs to carefully follow the price action, and the underlying fundamentals, of the stock markets. It is impossible to follow the underlying fundamentals of Bitcoin, because there are none (except perhaps in a few nations with capital controls). But the underlying fundamentals of the stock markets, which are terrible right now, will allow you to forecast the price action of Bitcoin.

If we enter a bear market (as the NASDAQ already is in), then Bitcoin is in deep trouble. If the stock markets decline for a year in a bear market, then Bitcoin will likely decline for a year.

Golden Fleece a nifty trader!!!
But not everyone can be a trader and look at hourly charts etc.

 

[Golden Fleece]

Golden Fleece a nifty trader!!!
But not everyone can be a trader and look at hourly charts etc.

That is just basic Investing 101. If you cannot perform such simple tasks, you should not be investing, much less speculating in something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Or was that a facetious remark?

 

[fortunespeculator]

That is just basic Investing 101. If you cannot perform such simple tasks, you should not be investing, much less speculating in something as volatile as Bitcoin.

Or was that a facetious remark?

No it was a remark to commend you on your analysis- I have a similar hypothesis as well.However bitcoin is almost mainstream now so it may not be possible for everyone to become a trader or look at hourly charts is what i meant.And not all traders are profitable either.

 

[Golden Fleece]

No it was a remark to commend you on your analysis- I have a similar hypothesis as well.However bitcoin is almost mainstream now so it may not be possible for everyone to become a trader or look at hourly charts is what i meant.And not all traders are profitable either.

I am not a trader either. I invest, which is why I do not own Bitcoin (which is a pure speculation).

I intended my analysis of Bitcoin to demonstrate its current correlation to the stock markets. An analysis of Bitcoin itself is useless because Bitcoin has no widely adopted utility. So, how can you judge its true value?

But you can now determine its general price direction based on a careful analysis of the macroeconomic view of the economy and the movement of the various stock markets.

For example, the NASDAQ lost about 78% of its value during the Great Financial Crisis (and it is currently down about 28%). If that happened again, Bitcoin could lose 95% of its value or even more. When investors panic, almost anything can happen.

 

[fortunespeculator]

I am not a trader either. I invest, which is why I do not own Bitcoin (which is a pure speculation).

I intended my analysis of Bitcoin to demonstrate its current correlation to the stock markets. An analysis of Bitcoin itself is useless because Bitcoin has no widely adopted utility. So, how can you judge its true value?

But you can now determine its general price direction based on a careful analysis of the macroeconomic view of the economy and the movement of the various stock markets.

For example, the NASDAQ lost about 78% of its value during the Great Financial Crisis (and it is currently down about 28%). If that happened again, Bitcoin could lose 95% of its value or even more. When investors panic, almost anything can happen.

Well i would consider you as a speculator (Trader,Investor,Speculator) all the same only the time lines may vary.Roughly the objective is almost the same and if you have started looking into hourly charts then you definitely have switched sides from being an investor to a trader. Without keeping odds in favour in a play nobody is going to succeed so it applies to all 3.

 

[Golden Fleece]

Well i would consider you as a speculator (Trader,Investor,Speculator) all the same only the time lines may vary.Roughly the objective is almost the same and if you have started looking into hourly charts then you definitely have switched sides from being an investor to a trader. Without keeping odds in favour in a play nobody is going to succeed so it applies to all 3.

I do not use hourly charts. I recently looked at the hourly charts just to confirm that Bitcoin was now marching in lockstep with the markets (i.e., experiencing daily highs and lows at about the same time). You cannot really do that using a daily chart.