I sent a long reply but I don't see it here. Regards Peter Taradash
I have been reading so many gloom& doom predictions lately. They sounded familiar.
I went back to something I wrte 20 years ago--here it is:
Doomsday Predictions 2001
Why Doomsday Predictions Seldom Work Out
How You Can Get Richer V-3, 2001
We just read another prediction that the dollar will collapse in the next couple of
years. Then the USA will quickly become a failed state with a 3rd World Economy.
If the American politicians were incredibly corrupt and inept like they are in Africa
or to a lesser extent in places like Argentina or the Philippines, a country run by them can indeed go down hill and stay down. But that scenario is not likely in
the USA. Why? Because it is a relatively free economy with only mildly stupid
leaders.
If the country you are worried about is a mostly laissez fair economy
the automatic pilot adjustments that occur in your country [or "Flag"] can be
turned into the exact opposite of what happens to your net worth.
Let's explain:
How well is the USA economy is doing? Depends on whom you ask. If you talk
with a banker heavy in bad
loans to marginal borrowers or to a homebuilder,
then you'll probably get a negative answer. But if you talk with a farmer or
a manufacturer with strong foreign business, then you'll probably get a
very positive answer. The different views are a result of the current weak
dollar, which far from being a negative for them, is helping to fuel an
export boom.
Plus the weak dollar will slow down imports. This, in classic Adam Smith
"invisible hand"
economics, will reverse the trade imbalance that plagues
the USA and will, at some point, reverse the dollar decline. How can you tell when that point has arrived? The Wall Street Journal publishes an arbitrage index cartoon almost every day. When the price of something like a "Big Mac" hamburger in America is laughably low compared to the same burger in other places; that means the USA currency is under-priced. A comeback for the dollar and the whole economy at that point is almost inevitable. That is why the stock market keeps jumping back after panic selling fueled by the doomsday boys.
For many years, a luxury apartment in Buenos Aires, Argentina was priced at about 2/3rds of the price of a similar condo in Paris France. Then, in the currency crisis of a few years ago, the value of the Argentine Astral fell by 80% while apartment prices in the local currency stayed the same--for a few months while things adjusted.
In other words, a million dollar value apartment could be bought [briefly] for $200,000. Many international investors and PTs borrowed to take advantage of this anomaly, and with borrowed money, made returns of 100X on their money within six months -- as property prices adjusted and ultimately and inevitably went back to traditional relative values.
{Grandpa update 2023- WE just left our rented apartment in Buenos Aires that our landlady bought for $80,000 , 22 years ago. It's worth about $800,000 now and brings in $2000-$3000 a month rent. BA is a great place to live because with dollars or Euros you get 4 times as much purchasing power when you exchange for Argentine Pesos ion the Blue Dollar market. I think Turkey may offer similar bargains today plus a free passport if you buy any $400,000 or more value in Turkish bargain property.}
Also, if there is political freedom, even if the democracy involved is not perfect, when the economy goes way off course, the electorate eventually throws out the rascals and puts in new leaders who change course. This is another self-correcting feature not available in places like Zimbabwe.
The Gloom & Doom Boys have been around for 10,000 years.
We just got through the predicted Y2K end of the world without any changes. Right?
So instead of wringing your hands and panicking that civilization as you
know it is about to end, just position yourself to be in any segment of the
market that will probably do well in the next bull market comeback.
This can be in your home market or where ever there is a crisis. Make deals that will do
well in any event. If you can, pick up distressed real estate that will give you a good rental return on
investment even if there are foreclosures going on all around you.
Don't complain and waste your breath pontificating about the idiocy of your elected leaders. Go ahead. Take action! Do the obvious!
Nobody becomes a
millionaire by jabbering, watching TV or reading blogs.
During the tail end of the
great depression in the U.S.A., around 1940, a
relative of mine picked up at a tax sale auction a run down, virtually
abandoned 36 unit apartment building [in a then crappy neighborhood] for a total
of $300, "all
cash." He personally moved in and rented out apartments for
$30 a month as he fixed them up. That one deal was the foundation of what became a great real estate fortune. When that neighborhood gentrified 20 years later, by 1960, each apartment was sold by him as a condo unit at around $100,000 @. Had he [or his heirs] held on, those units today, 50 years later, they would have been worth closer to $600,000 each.
This is not an unusual tale. The wealthy of today simply were in a position to do well financially no matter what happened, but were all set to join the ranks of the ultra—high-net-worth-crowd if & when economic growth resumed.
Grandpa's Note: Property I bought in California in 1970 for $100,000, I sold in 1980 for $1 Million.
In 2020 I read that it was sold for $100 Million.Yeah, I should have held on. But what the heck, I bought other stuff that did almost as well.
In
Monaco, the Pastore Family did exactly the same thing starting with
nothing -- in 1938 or thereabouts. They bought, redeveloped & never sold much. Today they own, free and clear, about 28,000 apartments, stores, and warehouses on the Riviera, each one of which is worth today, on average, 5 million EUROS. (in 2001!) This does not include several businesses related to construction, building materials, plus a high end international real estate brokers and auction houses. They only buy bargains.
Today, their $300,000,000,000 [dollars] in net worth puts them galaxies ahead of Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, the Walmart Heirs -- or anyone else on the Fortune Rich list . They are however low profile PTs, and not well known. They have never been on the Fortune list. Where do they live? In Monaco; though nobody knows exactly where. Monaco is no economic powerhouse and has virtually no exports. No "poor people" at all. Some 35,000 people [including myself] are doing very well there, thank you. What's the attraction or the secret?
An unregulated free economy where the most productive people in the world can do their thing – free of income taxes! (Grandpa Note 2023- The family's net worth is close to a TRILLION DOLLARS now.)
There are also many super rich people in 3rd World Countries who are making
serious money today. Thus, even if the USA would become less of a free
economy & go down the drain, not all investors there would end up losers.
Think! Be prepared to get richer & position yourself accordingly.