Everything works until it stops working.Hi Johnny
Anti fragile - - robust either term is cool with me
what i am suggesting is obviously no curve fitting of the data and nothing that maybe is based on particular i hate the word gimmick but sort of current edge in the market which is or might be transitory
E,g totally made up but for the point - - say you notice that the USDJPY in the Asian session always seems to have a pull back mid session from a high or low to the mid session point.
So you get an EA coded with a Bollinger band or Keltner band to look for Asian session extremes and trade them back to a midpoint or a pre determined number of pips. You back test this for say 3 years and all good - - but this was a temporary edge/ gimmick of the market now and something changes fundamentally with some aspect of the USA or JPY economy - - that edge will start to fade.
The simpler stuff e.g. your example of the Turtles - a breakout trader - well - that's based on human emotion and as long as humans are trading or coding the robots - - well emotion is always going to be in there. Its not always going to have stellar years but when emotion comes into the market - - its going to pick up on it
That sort of idea.. the portfolio is the idea that different approaches to fundamental aspects of markets can have different entries and exits and say that turtle break out robot - - well most of the time the break out fails or isn't substantial enough to make a profit or its a break even / loss . Well find a complementary robot that smooths out with losses.
And go for the longer term charts/ time frames - - if you want excitement - - Vegas/ Macau are there for a reason
Funny thing is that most of the performance in the stock market is done overnight.
Taleb wrote about fragility and made most of his money with books not by trading.
It’s all a fugazi…