US losing its geopolitical dominance?

[Martin Everson]

"it may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal" - Henry Kissinger

Canada and Mexico learning the hard way .

I wonder if after this 25% slap that America made on them they will go back into an intimate relationship with America like abused wife?

I can say that in my part of the world the US government is not at all respected but only feared and that is a big difference. It's geopolitical dominance will fail when the fear of America reduces over time. Canada and Mexico both need to diversify there trading relationships just like China. As trade with America only makes up around 15% of China's total exports.

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country

Whereas Mexico and Canada make up 34% of US exports and China only 7.1% for a combined amount of 41.1% of US exports. That could be a big hit to US exports if this is not worked out....lol.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/exports-by-country

Bottom line Trump made a geopolitical faux pas in the tariff war and is already back tracking on some of them....

Trump Pares Back Canada, Mexico Tariffs in Latest Whipsaw on Trade​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/oth...ariffs-in-latest-whipsaw-on-trade/ar-AA1ApgIg

 

[melzvy]

P.S What you are seeing with Trump is the naked face of US imperialism/capitalism and its last desperate attempts to assert its will and maintain its hegemony in what is becoming an empire in terminal geopolitical and economic decline in a coming multi-polar world.

This!..

Also to add to the last comment ("re-worded" with Grok AI):

"History suggests a pattern where democracies, sensing their decline, morph into empires or tyrannies in a futile attempt to halt the fall. They might delay it, but not stop it, often with wars marking the process. This unraveling stretches over years—typically 5 to 10—not months or a couple of years."

The key question is, knowing this pattern, what are we doing in the side of the 'emerging powers' to capitalize on what’s coming, or at least preserve our way of life, so we’re not caught off guard when the shift happens?

 

[wonderfulboy]

You are leaving out the most important reason for US dominiance - the fact that back in the day it collected a lot/most gold from the rest of the world and persuaded other countries to use USD as reserve currency.
From there on, by printing=deflating dollars and "selling" them to the rest of the world, they are collecting wealth from everybody holding a dollar.

Bitcoin is changing this.

let's hope bitcoin is changing this.

 

[Martin Everson]

Well the US empire has now resorted to theft of foreign countries assets through the courts.

Missouri judge finds Chinese government liable for $24B in damages for ‘hoarding’ protective equipment during COVID pandemic​

https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/us-ne...g-protective-equipment-during-covid-pandemic/

--- quote start

“China refused to show up to court, but that doesn’t mean they get away with causing untold suffering and economic devastation,” Bailey said. “We intend to collect every penny by seizing Chinese-owned assets, including Missouri farmland.”

--- quote end

Well the Saudi's will be next and probably blamed for 9/11 I guess. Also DeepSeek has exposed U.S tech firms wanting to dominate AI space. Money has been flowing into China stocks.

China’s top tech stocks add $439bn as ‘Mag 7’ sink​

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/international/chinas-top-tech-stocks-add-439bn-as-mag-seven-sink/

--- quote start

A $439 billion rally in Chinese tech megacaps this year has left their once-unbeatable US peers in the dust, an outperformance that many investors say has room to extend.

An equal-weighted basket of China’s seven tech heavyweights including Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings — dubbed the “7 titans” by Societe Generale SA — has gained more than 40% this year. That compares with an about 10% drop in an index of the Magnificent Seven stocks, whose slump has also pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index to the brink of a correction.

-- quote end


I think the U.S may start seizing U.S Treasuries and other assets held by Sovereign states such as Saudi Arabia and China with court rulings. I mean the man still wants to take over Gaza, Greenland and make Canada 51st state etc....lol. Trump must be a Russian asset as everything he is doing is to isolate US from its closest allies and destroy US credibility on world stage .

To me its clear that the U.S wants to ensure all countries around it and close allies are made into puppet regimes to serve the U.S best interest at a cost to their own economies. Geopolitically the way they are going about it with Tariffs and seizures is thuggish. It is literally the actions of a banana republic....lol

 

[wellington]

BTC acts like leveraged NDX after 2019

Nah, BTC is correlated with Global Liquidity @94% (like NDX) each time Global Liquidity rises 1% - BTC follows roughly 8-12 weeks later with a 15% move.

Gold likewise is correlated with Global Liquidity but it's move is 9/10% for each 1% in Global Liquidity, the reason BTC is more 'volatile' is because its both 'technology' as well as 'monetary-inflation' hedge - note its not a variable inflation hedge (high - street).

So BTC will rise until it doesn't at that point the Dollar/Pound or what ever would be relaunched as something new and BTC will price against that.

 

[JackAlabama]

Nah, BTC is correlated with Global Liquidity @94% (like NDX) each time Global Liquidity rises 1% - BTC follows roughly 8-12 weeks later with a 15% move.

Gold likewise is correlated with Global Liquidity but it's move is 9/10% for each 1% in Global Liquidity, the reason BTC is more 'volatile' is because its both 'technology' as well as 'monetary-inflation' hedge - note its not a variable inflation hedge (high - street).

So BTC will rise until it doesn't at that point the Dollar/Pound or what ever would be relaunched as something new and BTC will price against that.

well said.

 

[FATCA]

Nah, BTC is correlated with Global Liquidity @94% (like NDX) each time Global Liquidity rises 1% - BTC follows roughly 8-12 weeks later with a 15% move.

Gold likewise is correlated with Global Liquidity but it's move is 9/10% for each 1% in Global Liquidity, the reason BTC is more 'volatile' is because its both 'technology' as well as 'monetary-inflation' hedge - note its not a variable inflation hedge (high - street).

So BTC will rise until it doesn't at that point the Dollar/Pound or what ever would be relaunched as something new and BTC will price against that.

So can you predict BTC and NDX price on mid May? Why aren't you a billionaire?

 

[void]

Why aren't you a billionaire?

perhaps he is...

 

[Martin Everson]

Prevailing view among Americans is that U.S. influence in the world is weakening – and China’s is growing​

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...the-world-is-weakening-and-chinas-is-growing/

I think the American people are under no illusions about the state of U.S geopolitical influence.

 

[FATCA]

Prevailing view among Americans is that U.S. influence in the world is weakening – and China’s is growing​

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...the-world-is-weakening-and-chinas-is-growing/

I think the American people are under no illusions about the state of U.S geopolitical influence.

I thought americans were retarded?

 

[melzvy]

interesting post .....

 

[thomasparra]

interesting post .....

View attachment 8893

This was always written in the book to be the dystopian future of capitalism.

 

[wellington]

So can you predict BTC and NDX price on mid May? Why aren't you a billionaire?

Yes you can utilise various systems / techniques to forecast forward either directionally or price range, the first thing to do is to build a Global Liquidity tracking system (that's not M2 or CB Balance Sheets), that will take you 6 months and approximately 200,000$ and will then cost roughly 300,000$ to maintain before factoring in data providers (500,000$ a year).

There are some providers that have opened parts of their own system(s) or others that have absorbed some of my technologies or others that have their own methods, with price ranges available to the average person.

- Real Vision - 2,000-10,000$ a year (https://realvision.com)
- Capital Wars - 750$ - 60,000$ a year (https://capitalwars.substack.com)
- Terminal - 75$ a year (huge system) (https://ai.catenacap.xyz)
- Bealzabub - 500$ a year (https://bealzabub.substack.com/)

Etc.

Then either use their system(s) or take their data and do your own math/calcs based on their data and then work / calc over time against assets and correlations.

That would provide daily, weekly, monthly GL tracking -> you could use that for HFT or for Macro.

Then with that and understanding how it all works you can branch out to other system(s) for different asset classes.

A lot of the system(s) i made over the year(s) when public have transitioned to various parties incorporated within their own system(s) and are accessible to outsider(s), simplifying things for people that don't understand GL.

As for your last comment - I'm comfortable...

 

[JustAnotherNomad]

Terminal is your company?

 

[Zala]

Well the US empire has now resorted to theft of foreign countries assets through the courts.

Missouri judge finds Chinese government liable for $24B in damages for ‘hoarding’ protective equipment during COVID pandemic​

https://nypost.com/2025/03/07/us-ne...g-protective-equipment-during-covid-pandemic/

--- quote start

“China refused to show up to court, but that doesn’t mean they get away with causing untold suffering and economic devastation,” Bailey said. “We intend to collect every penny by seizing Chinese-owned assets, including Missouri farmland.”

--- quote end

Well the Saudi's will be next and probably blamed for 9/11 I guess. Also DeepSeek has exposed U.S tech firms wanting to dominate AI space. Money has been flowing into China stocks.

China’s top tech stocks add $439bn as ‘Mag 7’ sink​

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/international/chinas-top-tech-stocks-add-439bn-as-mag-seven-sink/

--- quote start

A $439 billion rally in Chinese tech megacaps this year has left their once-unbeatable US peers in the dust, an outperformance that many investors say has room to extend.

An equal-weighted basket of China’s seven tech heavyweights including Alibaba Group Holding and Tencent Holdings — dubbed the “7 titans” by Societe Generale SA — has gained more than 40% this year. That compares with an about 10% drop in an index of the Magnificent Seven stocks, whose slump has also pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index to the brink of a correction.

-- quote end


I think the U.S may start seizing U.S Treasuries and other assets held by Sovereign states such as Saudi Arabia and China with court rulings. I mean the man still wants to take over Gaza, Greenland and make Canada 51st state etc....lol. Trump must be a Russian asset as everything he is doing is to isolate US from its closest allies and destroy US credibility on world stage .

To me its clear that the U.S wants to ensure all countries around it and close allies are made into puppet regimes to serve the U.S best interest at a cost to their own economies. Geopolitically the way they are going about it with Tariffs and seizures is thuggish. It is literally the actions of a banana republic....lol

The United States is not truly a country — it’s essentially a corporation. Its CEO is appointed by the board of directors (cleverly designed to make voters choose between two options), and the board members are undoubtedly capitalists. Capitalists, in turn, are puppets of capital. Ultimately, capital knows no borders — which means "America" can be anywhere, not just in North America

 

[W Fish]

The United States is not truly a country — it’s essentially a corporation. Its CEO is appointed by the board of directors (cleverly designed to make voters choose between two options), and the board members are undoubtedly capitalists. Capitalists, in turn, are puppets of capital. Ultimately, capital knows no borders — which means "America" can be anywhere, not just in North America

You are right.
There is one more essential bit.
Like you say - capitalists are puppets of capital (as it should be) and capital is ruled by FED.

"America" is everywhere where USD is used as (at least part) of reserves. This presence is manifested by sellin paper dollars with cost of production near zero to the rest of the world for real value.

 

[wellington]

You are right.
There is one more essential bit.
Like you say - capitalists are puppets of capital (as it should be) and capital is ruled by FED.

"America" is everywhere where USD is used as (at least part) of reserves. This presence is manifested by sellin paper dollars with cost of production near zero to the rest of the world for real value.

You can't blame the US for this, its the EURODOLLAR market that drives the demand for dollars, are you aware for every treasury there's 47 claims and 3/4 $ transactions offshore are refinancing transactions, and the Eurodollar debt is 380 Trillion $ and 75 Trillion of it is rolled over annually, and its not the US that drives this but the market itself?

 

[W Fish]

You can't blame the US for this, its the EURODOLLAR market that drives the demand for dollars, are you aware for every treasury there's 47 claims and 3/4 $ transactions offshore are refinancing transactions, and the Eurodollar debt is 380 Trillion $ and 75 Trillion of it is rolled over annually, and its not the US that drives this but the market itself?

I am not blaming, everybody would do the same if they had the possibility, it is a rational way (from a business perspective) to act.
The "market" can "drive" it because the "market" is not free but manipulated by FED, ECB and national CB-s.
On a free market the currency rates and also prices would adjust and there would not be any "eurodollar debt".

 

[wellington]

I am not blaming, everybody would do the same if they had the possibility, it is a rational way (from a business perspective) to act.
The "market" can "drive" it because the "market" is not free but manipulated by FED, ECB and national CB-s.
On a free market the currency rates and also prices would adjust and there would not be any "eurodollar debt".

You do realize what eurodollar debt is?

Eurodollar debt is when i need money to open a factory, i raise money in the private/public markets in domestic currency, but because my lenders don't trust the currency (say Kenyan Shilling) they price in $.

Every year i have to service that debt, and if business isn't good, roll it over when it comes up for renewal.

Thats called the Eurodollar market, its not physical dollars, but contracts priced in Dollars, as the Dollar is the cleanest s**t in the laundry.
That market is personal, commercial, state and isn't recorded like normal contracts in ledgers that can easily be tracked, and as 75 trillion $ rolls over annually (refinancing) and a ever-growing amount of it (380T$) its not something that can go away, and the only way you can service it is in real dollars, or the currency equivalent in $ if the party wants (or some other currency) but because the sheer volume of it exists, it makes the $ which as base money is minimal in comparison, create demand (strength) for the dollar, so regardless of the manipulation you refer to - roughly a 8-10% debasement tax each year to stop the entire system imploding due to domestic demographics, debt load and refinancing mechanisms, you can't get rid of the dollar, because there's just too much demand for it.... and its the cleanest s**t in the laundry.

Hence you have the dollar milkshake -

You can thank the UK, Swiss that created this as post war, the World wanted Dollars, and the US had capital controls.

It's also the bedrock of the UK Financial Services offering and offshore industries/like wise in part Swiss.

 

[W Fish]

You can thank the UK, Swiss that created this as post war, the World wanted Dollars, and the US had capital controls.

You are leaving out the most important reason for US dominiance - the fact that back in the day it collected a lot/most gold from the rest of the world and persuaded other countries to use USD as reserve currency.

It seems we are essentially talking about the same thing, different wording and possibly diving to different depths as for the core reason and modus operandi.?