The Johnny Doe IBKR portfolio

[wellington]

Slow horses also deserve some affection. I like how @JohnnyDoe take care of cats and slow horses.

Missing the point, if it's sub 12% PA (pre-tax) and more so (post-tax) then it's essentially debased as annualised refinancing of state debt is a case of 8% paid for refinancing cost (stealth tax) that increases balance sheet which then increases assets nominal values (various degrees) then inflation (variable goods inflation) 2/4% (usually double reported).

Then traditional taxes.

 

[wellington]

I sell only to keep the portfolio balanced or if the initial investment rationale is no longer present.

Of course you don’t need to think too much about these details when you average +180%.
With just an annual compounding, the value of your investment x becomes x*(2.8)^n years. That is, every year your investment is multiplied by 2.8, which means that if you invest $10,000 you will have $296,000,000 after 10 years (and almost $9 trillions after 20 years).

It doesn't work like that.

You enter as a macro trade (bottom zone of the liquidity market) which means you have a very volatile first year (may be 95% down), second year you have 100-1000% gains (unrealised or realised to average losses/gains later), third year you have blow off tops so have volatile motions to exit.

Fourth year you've exited and twiddle your thumbs.

 

[wellington]

I.e Liquidity is currently slowing its rate of change - towards peaking/rolling over , means that volatility is there and the best gains have already been secured, its heightened risk period, but also potential of upside moves are wilder so risk/allocate.

But you could also be holding something that goes down 20-95%.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

It doesn't work like that.

You enter as a macro trade (bottom zone of the liquidity market) which means you have a very volatile first year (may be 95% down), second year you have 100-1000% gains (unrealised or realised to average losses/gains later), third year you have blow off tops so have volatile motions to exit.

Fourth year you've exited and twiddle your thumbs.

I prefer the roulette, with a fair and certain 35:1 payout, plus some free drinks and a night at the hotel de Paris with compliment of SBM.

 

[rss]

You enter as a macro trade (bottom zone of the liquidity market) which means you have a very volatile first year (may be 95% down), second year you have 100-1000% gains (unrealised or realised to average losses/gains later), third year you have blow off tops so have volatile motions to exit.

 

[Mercury]

Remember:
Dividends=real money that can be used to buy btc and other stuff
Gains=fairy dust

This. Furthermore dividends will mitigate sequence of returns risk whereas with capital gains one may have to sell assets at loss during a lasting bear market. Capital gains strategy for income is far from passive/reliable as it needs market timing.

 

[Radko]

This. Furthermore dividends will mitigate sequence of returns risk whereas with capital gains one may have to sell assets at loss during a lasting bear market. Capital gains strategy for income is far from passive/reliable as it needs market timing.

That's why a lot of people have 80% Stocks, 20% Cash.
That 20% cash should be enough to live off of for a few years in case of a recession.

 

[Mercury]

That's why a lot of people have 80% Stocks, 20% Cash.
That 20% cash should be enough to live off of for a few years in case of a recession.

Sure if your 20% cash can cover 10 years (worst case scenario) living expense.
The issue here is during this recession period you are not able to invest/DCA down as your cash is used for living (unless you have other income sources), waiting fingers crossed the return of the bull market.

 

[Radko]

Sure if your 20% cash can cover 10 years (worst case scenario) living expense.
The issue here is during this recession period you are not able to invest/DCA down as your cash is used for living (unless you have other income sources), waiting fingers crossed the return of the bull market.

Keep in mind that the 20% cash can return some interest, and the 80% stocks can yield dividends, so you can use some of the interest and dividends for living expenses, and some to DCA down into the market.
Probably the key thing here is living in a country where your monthly living expenses are low, such is the case of Thailand.

Having said that, I don't buy anything when valuations are as high as they are now, so I have a lot of cash ready to deploy, in the meantime I'm getting 4%~5% on that cash.

It's crazy what's happened during the last 2 years, we will see what the next 5 years bring.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I don't buy anything when valuations are as high as they are now

I’ve been hearing that since when the S&P hit 1000 (or btc 1000). Never try to time the market.

 

[Radko]

I’ve been hearing that since when the S&P hit 1000 (or btc 1000). Never try to time the market.

I was there during the dot.com bubble, and I was there during the financial bubble of 2008, if I learned something is to not buy anything when things are soooo damn expensive , but I get the point.

 

[daniels27]

I was there during the dot.com bubble, and I was there during the financial bubble of 2008, if I learned something is to not buy anything when things are soooo damn expensive , but I get the point.

Can I buy your house in the Canary Islands?

 

[Radko]

Can I buy your house in the Canary Islands?

Do you have 1.2M Euros?

 

[daniels27]

Do you have 1.2M Euros?

Not for the okupas that will be coming