Our valued sponsor
Safe Havens for Bitcoin During a Banking Crisis?
- Thread starter run
- Start date
Only reason to hold eth these days except transacting in is staking it - yield (consider it your bond side of your portfolio - bond yield and bond price rises)
BtC
eTH
Sol
Sui
File
Render
Half a dozen shitcoins
could it possibly happen? it came as something unnatural and it can vanish as fast again, or it can be made worthless like Diamonds are now.
One btc always = one btc
Perhaps you mean btc exchange rate against USD going to zero?
Can this happen?
Possibly, yes. Probably, no.
Whereas it’s a mathematical fact that the value of any fiat currency tends to, and eventually reaches, zero.
Never been more serious.
History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes.
And this looks like a 4th chorus to me.
It's not if, but how long more, 2 months (accelerated, and 2-months-after-rate-cut-high-before-all-markets-drop, or 12 months as expected.
Oh, disclaimer, that's no financial advice, I am not an analyst, I am just doing mind acrobatics.
You are responsible for you own decisions and actions, not anyone else.
Need more charts?
Man this thread sent me on a trip down memory lane! Linden dollars, Virwox and even NXT?! I remember overwriting a text file with a passphrase to a wallet with tens of thousands worth of NXT and then running a file recovery program called Photorec for 3 days and it actually retrieved it and saved my a*s 
Remember the time before Bitcoin when it was just Perfect Money and Liberty Reserve and instead of shitcoins you invested in HYIPs which were just straight up pyramid schemes? Some of those were gigantic, I remember one called Profitable Sunrise that even had a former Miss America shilling it.
I see speculating on altcoins as an evolution of playing those early HYIPs, back then you had nothing to go on but pure hype and marketing and that still is the same for most shitcoins but now you can find a real working product which was like the holy grail back then, to find an investment that actually had a real source of income. Now that can be easily found with Defi and staking, liquidity pools, etc.
Remember the time before Bitcoin when it was just Perfect Money and Liberty Reserve and instead of shitcoins you invested in HYIPs which were just straight up pyramid schemes? Some of those were gigantic, I remember one called Profitable Sunrise that even had a former Miss America shilling it.
I see speculating on altcoins as an evolution of playing those early HYIPs, back then you had nothing to go on but pure hype and marketing and that still is the same for most shitcoins but now you can find a real working product which was like the holy grail back then, to find an investment that actually had a real source of income. Now that can be easily found with Defi and staking, liquidity pools, etc.
Great thread! Good stuff. There are lots of rabbit holes to dig. Thank you all! Those of us with amnesia due to our recent boating accident, thank you dearly! 
Since I see from some posts your opinion is respected, here's a question for you: 1) given Bitcoin being perceived as risk-on asset and its being very neatly correlated to SPX, would you not say that in case of a crisis whereby SPX crashes, so will bitcon; 2) bitcoin's prior cycle only reached 69k whereby the s2f model predicted it to go much higher, it also went below the previous cycle's peak of 19k at prior bottom (even if you consider s2f a meme, aren't bitcoin cycles also memes that were memed into existence); long story short, if the rainbow chart with bitcoin cycles breaks down, how do you see bitcoin surviving? 3) bitcoin's fees are pretty low and for many miners not profitable on their own, the more it goes into ETFs that are traded offchain the less btc moves offchain, soon fees for economic security of bitcoin won't make sense; -- so basically if we have a major financial crisis incoming that can wipe out banks and likely drag bitcoin down with it (unless by some unclear miracle it decouples from SPX and starts behaving like gold) what's your thesis for holding bitcoin over the imminent mega-crash that may be coming? I don't even take more extreme scenarios of war, internet shutdown or launch of quantum computer that can break sha256 isntantly hacking all bitcoin wallets and killing the basic narrative of bitcoin's network as the most secure in the world.....
By whom?
0.41 (average over the past 5 years) is not a “very neat” correlation
I don’t have a crystal ball, and anyway it’s completely irrelevant what btc will do during a stock market crisis.
I don’t do horoscopes. But I will be happy to buy all your bitcoins at $10k now or at any time in the future.
I will leave it to @wellington to show reply with some of his great charts.
I share your concerns, with blackrock and banks holding a big amount of bitcoin, they are able to orchestrate drops at will, especially when playing the ETF vs. on-chain-BTC like they already did with Greyscale's product. With more etfs, futures and options, the doors are open for that greedy banksters. I think that this cycle should still work out ok, and I still hold on-chain-btc and sell puts on it (right now).
Regarding the quantum computer breaking encryption, your bitcoin holdings would be your smallest problem, as this would mean that suddenly all passwords and codes for EVERYTHING become obsolete, from your online banking with traditional banks, all credit cards and digital payments, even that upcoming CDBCs, stockmarkets, to your health insurance, your countries military agenda and secrets, secret services and police databases, and everything else that's digital and accessible via the net. That's gonna be an apocalyptic event with huge consequences.
It would be a good idea to get into some physical valuables before it happens, or even better: lots of guns and ammo, and a really really safe bunker with enough food supply for shortages (even better if you can 'create/grow' it).
Hmmm, why does Bill Gates with his farmland purchases come into my mind right now, does he know more than we know about the current quantum development? After all, he believes and tells the world that he somehow changed from being a monopolist (selling windows preinstalled on every computer), to Epstein's friend and frequent visitor to the pedo island, to 'the science' himself, making $$$ with the vaccine scam, to now going into manufacturing his version of "soylent green". None of it is very 'philanthropic', but calling it so saves a lots of taxes for the sociopaths.
Read from someone who already addressed the matter in a scientific way, instead of relying on urban legends: https://ar5iv.org/pdf/1711.04235
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2402.00922
On SHA-256:
https://ar5iv.org/pdf/2202.10982’
https://ar5iv.org/html/2409.19932v1
https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/12/9/1337
In summary, for the lazy ones who don’t want to read the papers: quantum computing is not going to affect btc or other hashing based applications for decades. In any case, there is already a plethora of solutions that can be implemented to these applications to make them quantum-resistant.
All this will become ineffective against robots.
The guy was a great software developer. The fact that he has had success in one business doesn’t mean that he is a universal genius.
It is a typical example of the appeal to authority fallacy.
count me in for that deal, all game
You mean you always hold 1 BTC as a minimum for investment purpose?
what a post much to read, thanks.
No, I mean that the value of 1 btc will always be 1 btc. I hold in btc the greatest part of my liquid assets, and I don’t care about what others believe its value in USD or other fiat currency is.
As I see the biggest risk to Bitcoin is not that it's price might go down, but the US elite. Currently they see it as a play tool for the commons, but they might see it as a threat to the $ soon.
We are at all the time just one executive order from seizing all the ASIC miners in the US.
With that the US gov can start mining empty blocks with 0 transactions, and then bitcoin could easily get into a death spiral.
Nobody could transfer bitcoins because all the blocks are mined empty, all the miners in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Germany will stop because they just lose on electricity and gain nothing,
as time goes the US can lower it's hashrate for the attack and in the end to keep mining empty blocks in the next 100 years will cost them nothing.
I'm not saying this will happen but the risk is always there, the US did strange things to defend the dollar, just remember the Gold Reserve Act.
Altough it's surprising how lenient they are with bitcoin, and how strict they were to other private currencies like Liberty dollar.
Looks like they still don't consider bitcoin as a threat, or maybe they just want Russia, China, Iran, North-Korea to be dependent on Bitcoin before their move?
Price dropping would just invite new speculants and young people to try it and get new believers.
Sometimes it makes me a bit worry that Bitcoin is very unpopular among GenZ, even if they are in crypto, mostly in memecoins and the majority leaves quickly because very few wins on those.
What is not are the addresses where the public keys are exposed, because with QC it will be trivial to get the private key from the public key.
Bitcoin is full with those, Satoshi's and many OG miners' coins are unsafe, about 2 million BTC.
Those "forever lost" bitcoins will likely come back to circulation within 5-10 years.
Many said that was Satoshi's goal, to make a big nice BTC reward to whoever reaches Quantum supremacy first and accelerate its development.
As Bitcoin price grows the reward pot becomes higher and higher.
This is just a one time problem though, if you use one-time cold wallets your BTC is safe as you have never signed a transaction with it.
Quantum computers can only get the private key from the public key, not from the hashed address.
We are at all the time just one executive order from seizing all the ASIC miners in the US.
With that the US gov can start mining empty blocks with 0 transactions, and then bitcoin could easily get into a death spiral.
Nobody could transfer bitcoins because all the blocks are mined empty, all the miners in China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Germany will stop because they just lose on electricity and gain nothing,
as time goes the US can lower it's hashrate for the attack and in the end to keep mining empty blocks in the next 100 years will cost them nothing.
I'm not saying this will happen but the risk is always there, the US did strange things to defend the dollar, just remember the Gold Reserve Act.
Altough it's surprising how lenient they are with bitcoin, and how strict they were to other private currencies like Liberty dollar.
Looks like they still don't consider bitcoin as a threat, or maybe they just want Russia, China, Iran, North-Korea to be dependent on Bitcoin before their move?
For the ecosystem the price going down is not a big risk, funny but very high price and lots of hodlers but no users is the worst scenario for bitcoin.
Price dropping would just invite new speculants and young people to try it and get new believers.
Sometimes it makes me a bit worry that Bitcoin is very unpopular among GenZ, even if they are in crypto, mostly in memecoins and the majority leaves quickly because very few wins on those.
Most of the hashing and mining part are safe from quantum computers.
What is not are the addresses where the public keys are exposed, because with QC it will be trivial to get the private key from the public key.
Bitcoin is full with those, Satoshi's and many OG miners' coins are unsafe, about 2 million BTC.
Those "forever lost" bitcoins will likely come back to circulation within 5-10 years.
Many said that was Satoshi's goal, to make a big nice BTC reward to whoever reaches Quantum supremacy first and accelerate its development.
As Bitcoin price grows the reward pot becomes higher and higher.
This is just a one time problem though, if you use one-time cold wallets your BTC is safe as you have never signed a transaction with it.
Quantum computers can only get the private key from the public key, not from the hashed address.
Not necessarily, sure if someone intercept your internet traffic they will break your TLS easily with quantum computers, but it's just an individual problem, any large gov agency probably can do those MITM attacks currently to any individual, most of the servers will still be safe enough as they still be able to restrict IPs etc.
You don't want to know that
but I can tell you it is more than what you can count fingers on all hands on 20 people.
Latest Threads
-
Assistance needed with Company Structure UAE - WY LLC
- Started by conglomerator
- Replies: 0
-
-
Obtain an Irish intra-community VAT number for a non-resident with an Irish limited company- Started by qltd
- Replies: 3
-
Is it really useful to empty accounts at the end of the year?
- Started by Var12
- Replies: 5
-
How do you own UK real estate anonymously the "Russian" way?
- Started by cherry
- Replies: 10
