look I am not saying the usd is going into hyperinflation, nobody knows, but still looking at the state of things this is getting worrying ...
btw
bitcoin is very popular in venezuela and argentina, I read in venezuela you can even pay your taxes in btc. the law will always change as needed, its literally impossible to prevent people from using bitcoin, there is no way to enforce it. while its impractical for groceries, it is still doable to buy stuff directly with bitcoin peer to peer.
The M2 supply chart is very relevant in my opinion. If anyone cares about official inflation defined by CPI, that makes very little sense. If you are not really in the very low income bracket with most of your income going towards food+accomodation, then your REAL inflation was more like 10 % per year and in 2020 it even increased to 15-25 % per year. Equities going up, rare assets and collectibles going up, select services (such as education, lawyers, house work...) going up. Sure, your new iPhone will have more RAM, a faster processor and it will be cheaper. However, does that really justify the rest to make official CPI to be 2 %? I think not.
And this is if you live in e.g. the United States. If you live in Turkey or Argentina, NOT ONLY the assets went up but EVEN THE CPI (food, services, utilities) went up by 50%+ per year.
I seriously doubt Venezuela would allow anyone to pay taxes in a commodity / foreign currency or Bitcoin. However, the process is always the same - local currency loses value until noone wants to hold it and the citizens use something else instead - in Zimbabwe they use the
US dollar now. USD has the big advantage of being the reserve currency (Chinese hold large amounts of US debt and treasuries) as well as being the energy currency (Saudis agreed to trade oil for dollars so that there will always be demand for dollars).
If that changes and US dollar becomes weaker and weaker and loses its worldwide power, that is probably good news for Bitcoin and other
cryptocurrencies.
the point is despite regular bear market of -85% (about once every 3y so far), on average and over a 3-5 years period bitcoin increase in USD value well over 100% year on year. This is literally the best asset (dare I say currency ?) you could own long term, period.
one fundamental is, the production of bitcoin is reduced by 50% about every 4 years, today there is half less bitcoin being created per day than last april for instance, as the last halving was in May 2020. the current price increase we are witnessing is the direct result of this.
now the assumption that can be debated is, will the demand for bitcoin keep increasing ? that's the bet people like me who put their money in this are making.
Yes, absolutely. Even if you were the biggest idiot in the world and bought at the top in Dec 2017, today you are in the green. No large-scale asset compares to this. You can find small stocks that will become 10-baggers or even 100-baggers but Bitcoin is a worldwide phenomenon that does this again and again - in these four year fractals.
its simple, the more people will jump on the bitcoin train, the more people will want to get in. Metcalfe's law kind of applies in this case, think facebook growth from 1M users in 2004 to 1B users in 2012 but replace user with money.
think about this, someone join facebook and tell their friends to join in, how many friend the average person has ? this is how fast the network will grow.
now with bitcoin its not about the amount of friends but the amount of money you are putting in, how many friends does Paul Tudor Jones bring in when he join facebook ? now how much money is he putting into bitcoin ?
i am badly paraphrasing Michael Saylor here but you can see how bitcoin is prone for an absolute mad exponential growth the like that has never been seen in history. The incentive to join the bitcoin network is infinitely more valuable than facebook, we are talking money here !
don't listen to me, just watch the video I posted above, the guy explained all this in the most brilliant fashion with a very deep knowledge of the financial space.
It is funny that now even institutions can get involved and what is most interesting they can get involved without risk and profit from Bitcoin. The easiest way for the is probably to buy the Grayscale trust (GBTC) immediately when issued, hedge against price drop with futures, hodl for 6 months, sell it and collect the premium. Rince and repeat and the institutions can basically get a risk-free 20-30 % p.a. profit if they know how to do it. Compare that with stupid US treasuries yielding sub 1%.
with this why not use bitcoin as a saving account ? I had CHF as savings for many years and was not living in Switzerland, I had to convert to local currency to do my groceries, guess what ? now I moved to bitcoin instead of CHF !
better than that, I will be borrowing against bitcoin as collateral and will never have to sell my bitcoin !! on top of that bitcoin is literally the best asset to own hands down.
when bitcoin surpassed the market cap of gold it will start to become as volatile as gold and will keep increasing because of the many more properties bitcoin has over gold, guess where the volatility is going as the marketcap incrases ? no more crazy bear market then.
I think this is one of the biggest misconceptions of people who think Bitcoin is hyped by speculation and is a bubble. There really are people who have no need to sell it. If you are a HNWI and you're able to save 99% of your earnings, if you put some amount of it into
crypto/Bitcoin, you have no need to sell after a year - given its historical track record. The more
rich people come to the conclusion they don't want bonds or gold, the more people will be involved in Bitcoin.
why this will not collapse as some people think ? because the fundamental are rock solid! why would you NOT want to use bitcoin as a long term store of value as oppose to anything else ?
techonology risk ? like what ? an UFO landing on earth to give us infinite energy ? well guess what there is a solution to that too !
There are many technology risks, probably the biggest are 51% attack, quantum computing and transaction censorship. If you consider BTC's game theory, noone really wants to do a 51% attack even if they were able to do it (look at BCH...). Quantum computing is usually mentioned by people who do not understand cryptography but yes, it may force the network to upgrade to something better and theoretically almost all addresses (including Satoshi's coins) are threatened. Transaction censhorship could happen e.g. in mining pools and in exchanges - what can happen is that a bifurcation of Bitcoin will evolve and there will be "nice" and "clean" Bitcoins custodied by someone like Paypal or
Revolut and "dirty" self-custody Bitcoin held by regular people.
You can go back to history of countries who tried to control their own currency - usually in the former Soviet block. There was the local currency, only legal tender and exchange to anything else was blocked or heavily regulated. Yet still there were people who somehow managed to get dollars or German marks or Swiss francs or whatever into the country and they were offering it at the real street rate. It was possible to avoid state controls even with fiat money, with crypto the easiness of that is 10x better.
This is where the intellectually-rich debate with BTC holders ends, hence discrediting it. Quickly: do you know which are the 2 best performing stock markets in the world for the last 2 years? MERVAL and BVC. Where? ARS and VEF are their currencies, find out. Check those charts and see their % gain. BTC ill be past 1MM if it matches it. However, do you know why almost nobody in those countries has profited from it, let alone hunger and poverty on the rise? That's right, big/huge currency debasement, like
Germany 1922-23. Now, apply that to an scenario where the USD collapses (alongside other FIAT ccies), hyperinflation follows (really big) and BTC is NOT a legal medium of exchange...what will happen to those millions you own in BTC but that you have to
cash out in USD/Fiat to LIVE or do your daily things (because storing it does not work anymore as you need to convert them because your salary/earnings are not enough)? That's right...you'll be holding toilet or wheelbarrow (quickly-debasing) paper.
Colombia and Argentina indexes, correct? You say "noone in these countries profited" and that is not true. Let's say I live there and I have two options - keep money in the local cash or buy the local index. I will always do the second option, inflation will go up - but the companies' market cap will also go up accordingly and usually more. So then it is up to the companies' forex position (are they long or short foreign currency in their costs? Are they exporting a lot?).
Take these indexes, use their USD-values and compare it to indexes in some "low inflation" countries such as Japan or Switzerland. You will be surprised that in USD terms these emerging indexes didn't do as badly as you may think. Especially if they are export and commodity countries.
The second part of your text - USD collapses and hyperinflation follows and BTC is not a legal medium of exchange. What will happen to my Bitcoins? Absolutely nothing, I will not be willing to sell my Bitcoin for worthless fiat, same as gold, I will not be willing to sell my
gold bar for dollars. You miss the point that many people
DO NOT NEED TO CASH OUT out of Bitcoin. It is like a self-reinforcing mechanism combined with Lindy effect. Something better than a central bank controlled currency was created. I do not need to go back to fiat currency, I will use only the absolute minimum of USD possible and I will definitely NOT be holding wheelbarrows of
paper money. People already taught this lesson in communist countries back in 1950s.