Betfair thinks that Trump is about 5 times more likely to win than Biden

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Jun 9, 2021
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#1
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https://www.betfair.com/exchange/pl...tion-2024/election-winner-betting-1.176878927
Back Odds for Trump: 1.67: Implies a probability of ~59.88%. Bet $1 to get $1.67 if Trump wins.
Back Odds for Biden: 8.2: Implies a probability of ~12.20%. Bet $1 to get $8.20 if Biden wins.

Trump is seen as more likely to win, with his implied probability (~59.88%) being almost 5 times higher than Biden's (~12.20%).

Is it Joever?

 
Reactions: 0xDEADBEEF and jafo
#6

I think Trump may have this in the bag.

I still cannot believe that the claimed most powerful country in the world can only find these two candidates, (Trump, Harris) from their national talent pool, to be the next apparent leader of the "free world". The country does not have much of a future as a global leader going forward if this is all they can produce.

 
Reactions: jafo and 0xDEADBEEF
#8
0xDEADBEEF said:
Trump's competition:
Click to expand...
I have watched "public servants" and their sycophants in awe and bewildered since I was a child...and here is my take on them and their statist mentality...

Could a "few dastardly useless, delusional self-appointed unproductive political parasites in gangs under the ruse of government" dupe gullible people into supporting the SECOND worst person on the planet by running the WORST person against him/her?

 
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#12
Highly unlikely he wins, 14M illegals since 2020 all of which will be voting, as most blue states will not check ID or proof of citizen and will allow mail in ballots. The push for illegals was to repopulate congressional districts lost to migration to red states during the pandemic.

It also doesn't matter if he wins. He, like all presidents in the US, is a literal puppet, a scarecrow. He is a grifter, he came to office to refinance his and his son in laws real estate portfolio. Not to mention, he is, like all US politicians, subservient to the Israeli lobby. Voting in the US is a ritualistic charade that gives the illusion of choice. Donations are all that change policy, there is a ton of data to prove this. You can start with OpenSecrets.
 
Reactions: Alonzo, Martin Everson and jafo
#16
At current Betfair prices,

Harris 1.95
Trump 2.12

64 million traded. But it's still very early. That market is 113% over-round, so it's not a tight book.

I'd like to see the prices at this point in 2016.

I watched some of the debate, and Harris was more coherent than normal, so it seems fairly likely the questions came in advance, and she was working on a script. As anyone who has seen her speak without one knows she can't make any salient point.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1833658814932959574
 
#18
Alonzo said:
After watching the debate, Trump's odds of winning is very low. I'll be very surprised if he does get reelected
Click to expand...

You greatly overestimate the IQ of the average American voter sadly...lol.
 
Reactions: jafo and Alonzo
#20
I still remember when he won the media talked trash about him "clown runs for prez"



It seems to me that he has some die hard fansbut a lot of his votes come also from people that for whatever reason don't openly admit they vote from him.
 
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