Safest Countries to Buy Land/Home?

[Liam13]

Pretty much everything there i agree with, except this.

Property in the US and western markets trail that including the UK/EU core cap cities.

Have lost roughly 2.5% PA against currency debasement from 2013-2021, nominally they've risen..

And that's before you even consider the depreciation of the Euro (and for that matter the Pound) over the period, and the future debasement/depreciation that is baked in.

Alongside Governments that are in debt up to their eye balls and will become increasingly 'violent' as the walls close in.

I dont disagree, and I am not recommending you put 100% in Real estate or 100% in these countries. But debasement compared to what? I plan to retire in Thailand, so I would rather have my revenue center in countries with EUR/USD/GBP, convert the income/dividends to Thai Bhat, which i assume will only go down compared to these currencies. At the end, it is about your assumptions and your available alternatives. EU/US is heavily in debt but they still have the financial/military power albeit declining. I've worked with many institutions/investors across the world, and they are all doing their best to transfer a big chunck of their assets to EU/US, at last as a hedge to their local currency and local politicians. The West is a mess, but it is not better elsewhere, that's my conviction based on significant work in EM

 

[Mercury]

I plan to retire in Thailand, so I would rather have my revenue center in countries with EUR/USD/GBP, convert the income/dividends to Thai Bhat, which i assume will only go down compared to these currencies.

I wouldn't bet on THB weakening long term against EUR/USD/GBP.

 

[JackAlabama]

I dont disagree, and I am not recommending you put 100% in Real estate or 100% in these countries. But debasement compared to what?

compared to bitcoin.

I plan to retire in Thailand, so I would rather have my revenue center in countries with EUR/USD/GBP, convert the income/dividends to Thai Bhat, which i assume will only go down compared to these currencies.

1 eur was 44 baht in 2014 whereas today just 38 including the recent weakness due to the mess of 2023, it was down to even 33 in 2019. You also have low inflation due to many commodities being available whereas eurozone has not much in terms of commodities but have harsh and long winters.

At the end, it is about your assumptions and your available alternatives. EU/US is heavily in debt but they still have the financial/military power albeit declining. I've worked with many institutions/investors across the world, and they are all doing their best to transfer a big chunck of their assets to EU/US, at last as a hedge to their local currency and local politicians. The West is a mess, but it is not better elsewhere, that's my conviction based on significant work in EM

eu is a papertiger and has no real power except propaganda. eur is a doomed currency on top of that (its internal construction is wrong and cannot hold value).
usa will likely split making them also lose power globally with the usd not being the reserve currency but they remain a strong spot (at least the better parts). at least usd is constructed correctly as a currency.

 

[Liam13]

compared to bitcoin.

1 eur was 44 baht in 2014 whereas today just 38 including the recent weakness due to the mess of 2023, it was down to even 33 in 2019. You also have low inflation due to many commodities being available whereas eurozone has not much in terms of commodities but have harsh and long winters.

eu is a papertiger and has no real power except propaganda. eur is a doomed currency on top of that (its internal construction is wrong and cannot hold value).
usa will likely split making them also lose power globally with the usd not being the reserve currency but they remain a strong spot (at least the better parts). at least usd is constructed correctly as a currency.

These are all assumptions about very complex systems

 

[JackAlabama]

These are all assumptions about very complex systems

not really, its called long term trends and less assumptions than what you put up. but you do you.

 

[wellington]

EUR/USD/GBP, convert the income/dividends to Thai Bhat, which i assume will only go down compared to these currencies

When i first moved to Thailand, i was given 50 baht to the pound.

I've since seen lows of 34 baht to the pound.

Thailand is in the monsoon region, it is admittedly on the 'wrong-side' of the demographics boom, BUT as part of the region it will be a net benefiter in growth in the region over the next two decades, as the 'china credit impulse' is replaced with the 'india credit impulse' as a leading indicator to the main markets, and funds seep into Thailand from the growth regionally.

So no, Thailand THB will continue to gain strength against USD/EUR/GBP.

 

[Liam13]

When i first moved to Thailand, i was given 50 baht to the pound.

I've since seen lows of 34 baht to the pound.

Thailand is in the monsoon region, it is admittedly on the 'wrong-side' of the demographics boom, BUT as part of the region it will be a net benefiter in growth in the region over the next two decades, as the 'china credit impulse' is replaced with the 'india credit impulse' as a leading indicator to the main markets, and funds seep into Thailand from the growth regionally.

So no, Thailand THB will continue to gain strength against USD/EUR/GBP.

Slightly different story when compared to USD. My prefrence is to get my "retirement" income in USD/EUR/GBP, I might be wrong though

 

[scooterguy]

I have been asking myself the same question. I've looked at Western and non-Western countries (Philippines, Thailand, UAE etc.). Here are my key observations:
- I've decided to give up on Asia: too complex, no urban planning, very illiquid second markets, and generally hard to get your money out, typically not possible to own land, low rights as a foreigner, currency risk etc. Singapore might be interesting but super regulated and you have to pay a stamp duty of 30%. There might be some specific cases but I find it overall "unsafe" and "illiquid"
- US is bubbly and too influenced by the stock markets, high correlation in case of a financial crash.
- I ended up investing in Paris and London. Anti-climax haha but overall fits what I am looking for: no currency risk, relatively good protection, and low downside risk on the long term. Just compare the documents you get when buying in Paris vs the documents you get in Asia or other parts of Europe (basically very low information asymmetry).
- I decided not to look at Eastern Europe/Turkey because of currency risk (in Turkey) and population negative growth (eastern europe for both risks)
- climate change: This is something to pay attention to, which rules out many areas as unsafe also.
If you dont want to invest in Europe/US, then maybe focus on other types of assets...

Could you please share some more information regarding your investments London? (at least as far as you are comfortable with). What kind of real estate, where did you find it, how you are looking to profit from it, etc.?

I'm also looking into buying real estate in Europe, and London is among my options.

 

[JackAlabama]

Slightly different story when compared to USD. My prefrence is to get my "retirement" income in USD/EUR/GBP, I might be wrong though

just because of usd reserve currency status, but this is on the way out and might not even last until the end of this decade. But this does not include eur/gbp, only usd. The underlying facts have already changed and the valuation of the usd is artificially high so it will reset bc the market forces are too strong to resist over the long term.

 

[Liam13]

just because of usd reserve currency status, but this is on the way out and might not even last until the end of this decade. But this does not include eur/gbp, only usd. The underlying facts have already changed and the valuation of the usd is artificially high so it will reset bc the market forces are too strong to resist over the long term.

I am of course aware of this narrative/theme, but what's the alternative, if you had to pick-up a fixed-income asset in the long term (so excluding precious metals, btc): which currency will you select? or maybe a basket of currencies? Which ones?

Could you please share some more information regarding your investments London? (at least as far as you are comfortable with). What kind of real estate, where did you find it, how you are looking to profit from it, etc.?

I'm also looking into buying real estate in Europe, and London is among my options.

I got a buying agent, and I went with the most climate resilient areas so focused on North London. It was "just' a studio of around 250k GBP. Low yield I presume, around 4%, but my real estate part of the portfolio is more for "safe" fixed income when I retire. You can go with more speculative and high yield opportunities but it is not what I like these days...In Europe real estate, I have now exposure to UK, FR and NL. Too bad if they go down and I get confiscated, I am just a powerless guy trying to get by...I cannot hedge all risks....

 

[Cloudbanck]

I am of course aware of this narrative/theme, but what's the alternative, if you had to pick-up a fixed-income asset in the long term (so excluding precious metals, btc): which currency will you select? or maybe a basket of currencies? Which ones?

Definitely a basket. Id pick AED, SGD, CHF, and why not throw in minor positions in like THB, MXN, GEL.

AED, yes, I know it is pegged to the USD, but I think if the USD goes down they may repeg the AED higher, or peg it to something else more stable.
They have actually re-pegged higher before. In 1967 the UAE used the Dubai Riyal which was pegged to the British Pound Sterling at 1 shilling and 6 pence. That year, the sterling devalued, but the Dubai Riyal changed the peg to 1 shilling and 9 pence to keep its value in relation to gold.
Also you can get great interest rates in AED (basically you get USD rates) without annoying US witholding taxes.

SGD: Singapore is an usually well managed country, with strong rule of law, economic freedom, no crazy high taxes, strong growth, attracting smart/rich people. SGD reflects this. Although no one is fully shielded from a scenario of a big USD and EUR crisis, Singapore is at least further away in Asia.

CHF: It is the best performing currency in the world over any long term horizon, outperforming even the USD. Yes, interest rates are low in CHF, but in the past it has still been a good safe bet, appreciation has compensated for low interest rate. Switzerland has an unfortunate position in the middle of the eurozone I know, and cant totally deviate from EUR short term, but in a Euro break up scenario people will flee to the CHF.

 

[JackAlabama]

I am of course aware of this narrative/theme, but what's the alternative, if you had to pick-up a fixed-income asset in the long term (so excluding precious metals, btc): which currency will you select? or maybe a basket of currencies? Which ones?

@wellington wrote about that, so I just copy from him quoting where the demographic growth is going to be.
btc overweight and equities focused. Not really into fixed income in an inflationary world. Although if one must have, usd based ones still ok and I still hold some or corp bonds of emerging market companies.
Can still do usd tho, no need to put all in one basket.

I got a buying agent, and I went with the most climate resilient areas so focused on North London. It was "just' a studio of around 250k GBP. Low yield I presume, around 4%, but my real estate part of the portfolio is more for "safe" fixed income when I retire. You can go with more speculative and high yield opportunities but it is not what I like these days...In Europe real estate, I have now exposure to UK, FR and NL. Too bad if they go down and I get confiscated, I am just a powerless guy trying to get by...I cannot hedge all risks....

Definitely a basket. Id pick AED, SGD, CHF, and why not throw in minor potions in like THB, MXN, GEL.

AED, yes, I know it is pegged to the USD, but I think if the USD goes down they may repeg the AED higher, or peg it to something else more stable.
They have actually re-pegged higher before. In 1967 the UAE used the Dubai Riyal which was pegged to the British Pound Sterling at 1 shilling and 6 pence. That year, the sterling devalued, but the Dubai Riyal changed the peg to 1 shilling and 9 pence to keep its value in relation to gold.
Also you can get great interest rates in AED (basically you get USD rates) without annoying US witholding taxes.

yah why not.

SGD: Singapore is an usually well managed country, with strong rule of law, economic freedom, no crazy high taxes, strong growth, attracting smart/rich people. SGD reflects this. Although no one is fully shielded from a scenario of a big USD and EUR crisis, Singapore is at least further away in Asia.

singapore clearly peaked, and recent trends are highly disturbing. twitter account of AntonKreil gives some insights. Although hard to find a good replacement, if anyone has suggestions, id be curious to hear them.

CHF: It is the best performing currency in the world over any long term horizon, outperforming even the USD. Yes, interest rates are low in CHF, but in the past it has still been a good safe bet, appreciation has compensated for low interest rate. Switzerland has an unfortunate position in the middle of the eurozone I know, and cant totally deviate from EUR short term, but in a Euro break up scenario people will flee to the CHF.

country has stopped being neutral and faces immense pressure from the empire to fall in line. Also a strong socialist push is underway similar but softer than in Germany. Curious to see how it develops, also the new mega bank ubs is way too big for the country and opens all kinds of risks. Proceed with caution.

 

[Liam13]

Definitely a basket. Id pick AED, SGD, CHF, and why not throw in minor positions in like THB, MXN, GEL.

AED, yes, I know it is pegged to the USD, but I think if the USD goes down they may repeg the AED higher, or peg it to something else more stable.
They have actually re-pegged higher before. In 1967 the UAE used the Dubai Riyal which was pegged to the British Pound Sterling at 1 shilling and 6 pence. That year, the sterling devalued, but the Dubai Riyal changed the peg to 1 shilling and 9 pence to keep its value in relation to gold.
Also you can get great interest rates in AED (basically you get USD rates) without annoying US witholding taxes.

SGD: Singapore is an usually well managed country, with strong rule of law, economic freedom, no crazy high taxes, strong growth, attracting smart/rich people. SGD reflects this. Although no one is fully shielded from a scenario of a big USD and EUR crisis, Singapore is at least further away in Asia.

CHF: It is the best performing currency in the world over any long term horizon, outperforming even the USD. Yes, interest rates are low in CHF, but in the past it has still been a good safe bet, appreciation has compensated for low interest rate. Switzerland has an unfortunate position in the middle of the eurozone I know, and cant totally deviate from EUR short term, but in a Euro break up scenario people will flee to the CHF.

SGD is also semi pegged to a basket of currencies and might be devaluated to encourage exports. Same for AED, it can also devaluated to encourage more investments after another bubble collapse..? Same for CHF. Hence diversification, I got that, but Singapore government or the emirati familes might have other agendas in the very long term, and will prioritize their survival.

 

[wellington]

SGD is also semi pegged to a basket of currencies and might be devaluated to encourage exports. Same for AED, it can also devaluated to encourage more investments after another bubble collapse..? Same for CHF. Hence diversification, I got that, but Singapore government or the emirati familes might have other agendas in the very long term, and will prioritize their survival.

AED = pegged to $ (for now)
HKD = pegged to the $ (likely to break at some point)

SGD = will be devalued but it is a safe haven stop gap if there's issues with the $ (also singapore isn't in debt like the IMF states, it's a really strong country fiscally - and the currency is just routinely debased to fit in the middle of int trade.
*I hold my emergency savings in SGD.

 

[Cloudbanck]

SGD is also semi pegged to a basket of currencies and might be devaluated to encourage exports. Same for AED, it can also devaluated to encourage more investments after another bubble collapse..? Same for CHF. Hence diversification, I got that, but Singapore government or the emirati familes might have other agendas in the very long term, and will prioritize their survival.

Devalue against what? And don't say precious metals or Bitcoin, the premise of the question was which fiat currencies to pick. (I totally agree that one should have a large BTC position)

And yes I know UBS is huge, and there is somewhat of a socialist push. And yes the son of Lee Kuan Yew, isnt quite as sharp as his father. And the UAE has a worrying trend with new taxes and regulations.

But you can find worse issues for all the other fiat currencies/countries. Except possibly Argentina that is trending in the right direction, but good luck with investing in their currency!

 

[wellington]

S

Devalue against what? And don't say precious metals or Bitcoin, the premise of the question was which fiat currencies to pick. (I totally agree that one should have a large BTC position)

And yes I know UBS is huge, and there is somewhat of a socialist push. And yes the son of Lee Kuan Yew, isnt quite as sharp as his father. And the UAE has a worrying trend with new taxes and regulations.

But you can find worse issues for all the other fiat currencies/countries. Except possibly Argentina that is trending in the right direction, but good luck with investing in their currency!

Singapore is a trading post
UAE is a trading post
HK is a trading post

Of all the three trading posts I would look to where there is stability in the next ten years in addition where the growth is.

That’s not China (demographics)
That’s not the Gulf (stability/sanctions/demographics)

Only one country is on the fringe of the monsoon region whilst having a LONG history of navigating geopolitical change whilst also being a important transfer hub between East and West - singapore

 

[Cloudbanck]

S


Singapore is a trading post
UAE is a trading post
HK is a trading post

Of all the three trading posts I would look to where there is stability in the next ten years in addition where the growth is.

That’s not China (demographics)
That’s not the Gulf (stability/sanctions/demographics)

Only one country is on the fringe of the monsoon region whilst having a LONG history of navigating geopolitical change whilst also being a important transfer hub between East and West - singapore

Agree about HK. You dont want to be under the increasingly authoritarian thumb of China. They are not going to close down HK entirely, but will keep curtailing economic freedom there step by step, and doubt they will treat foreigners well, especially in a situation with more tension hot/cold war with Taiwan/the West.

Regarding the Gulf, I dont think the sanctions (if you mean greylisting of the UAE) has much impact, and with the EU's reduced geopolitical significance sanctions will be less and less important. And the demographics of the UAE are great, it is a place where millionaires/entrepreneurs/smart people move to, and the population is increasing - that's exactly what you want. It's a plus that the native population is so small, that decreases the calls for high taxes/large welfare state.

I also think that physical goods, and manufacturing will play increasingly smaller importance in the future. The future lies in innovation, brain power, expressed via services that take over the world economy. Being a trading post is slowly becoming less important, but having economic freedom, strong property rights and attracting entrepreneurs/talent is important and will increasingly become more important.

 

[wellington]

Ref SGD
https://www.silverbullion.com.sg/Articles/Detail/Why-Singapores-Debt-is-Often-Misunderstood/10629

 

[Liam13]

Ref SGD
https://www.silverbullion.com.sg/Articles/Detail/Why-Singapores-Debt-is-Often-Misunderstood/10629

Btw, anyone has expressed doubts about SilverBullion on this forum as I am quite new? I am wondering why their are using an unknown auditor for such an important exercise ( precious metal holdings!). I am considering to buy more gold with them, hence the question

 

[wellington]

Regarding the Gulf, I dont think the sanctions (if you mean greylisting of the UAE) has much impact, and with the EU's reduced geopolitical significance sanctions will be less and less important. And the demographics of the UAE are great, it is a place where millionaires/entrepreneurs/smart people move to, and the population is increasing - that's exactly what you want. It's a plus that the native population is so small, that decreases the calls for high taxes/large welfare state.

I also think that physical goods, and manufacturing will play increasingly smaller importance in the future. The future lies in innovation, brain power, expressed via services that take over the world economy. Being a trading post is slowly becoming less important, but having economic freedom, strong property rights and attracting entrepreneurs/talent is important and will increasingly become more important.

Gulf (UAE) makes its funds from transitioning goods and services east-west, many people assume oil/gas, numerous new industries have propped up and add to those endevours.

The unfortunate thing about UAE like HK, is it's not Singapore, a choke hold, UAE is a gateway to the oil/gas regions of the Gulf/ME, HK the gateway to China, Singapore however is the path from East to West, though demand from China will decline, Singapore will remain a important transition point and it's various industries can offset the decline in shipping through the straits on demand of China.

Though as its now the monsoon region on the rise, and we are evidently now seeing this more and more (India) leading (see credit) -> UAE may obtain a important trading post more importantly than it is currently for India.

Otherwise, aside from that....

Areas of investment (growth) 1-2 decades.. then see where you can fit in, has rule of law etc, growth etc.