how to benefit in times of crises - COVID-19 - Corona

[Martin Everson]

Well the interest rate cut has failed to settle the US markets. They are down again and even triggered a circuit breaker (15 minute halt to trading) yet again. The third halt to trading in 8 days.....crazy. This folks is what stopping a US stock market collapse looks like i.e emergency Sunday rate cuts to near zero percent and periodic halting to trading as markets continue to go down, down and down .

Stock market news live: Stocks plunge, trigger circuit breaker after Fed unveils emergency stimulus

They need to close the US stock exchanges for some weeks until corona virus fears subsides . They shouldn't let the markets bleed to death slowly. Just halt all trading until further notice.

There are no real buyers out there just algos and index funds left in US market...lol . The US hasn't even reached anywhere near the peak of the corona virus....so sad.

Stay safe all.

 

[Tax Cow]

@US Stock Market

The real value of DOW30 is $15,000. Anything above that is stimulus, optimism, stock buybacks, and artificial interest rate engineering. Industrial profits are tight like a teenager, and evermore of what the US companies make gets copied at better margins abroad.

Still a long way to go for the DOW. With or without the virus.

 

[kkein]

Short sellers are making shitload of money these days. If you know how to do it, granted. If not, you may as well lose everything. I think today alone was a +200% return on investment on short selling stocks.
If you ask how to profit long term, well, it's about predicting how the market and the industry will be affected and will shift after this exceptional event. Something easy to understand after it happens, always difficult before.

 

[Educate]

This is what I was waiting for for last 3 years.

This is your chance to buy Bitcoin and stocks cheap.

"Buy when there is blood in the streets"

 

[rowena]

I don't believe this s**t going to end soon(3-6 months). It is better to stay in cash USD or EUR. Fortunately, I sold my all stocks last week but staying cash can be also a problem in upcoming months because financial institutions going to face huge problems. It is better to stay with high rating institutions only.

 

[iloveyouguys]

Well the interest rate cut has failed to settle the US markets. They are down again and even triggered a circuit breaker (15 minute halt to trading) yet again. The third halt to trading in 8 days.....crazy. This folks is what stopping a US stock market collapse looks like i.e emergency Sunday rate cuts to near zero percent and periodic halting to trading as markets continue to go down, down and down .

Stock market news live: Stocks plunge, trigger circuit breaker after Fed unveils emergency stimulus

They need to close the US stock exchanges for some weeks until corona virus fears subsides . They shouldn't let the markets bleed to death slowly. Just halt all trading until further notice.

There are no real buyers out there just algos and index funds left in US market...lol . The US hasn't even reached anywhere near the peak of the corona virus....so sad.

Stay safe all.

When do you think it would be a good idea to get out of USD and move into CHF? (Assuming CHF is your favorite)

If they close down the markets, how many weeks would they do this for? I think market close harmed them in 2008. I'm currently profiting from certain ETFs and stocks going down and want to stay in the US market as long as possible.

You studied finance in university? Sounds like you have a solid understanding which I don't have

 

[Martin Everson]

When do you think it would be a good idea to get out of USD and move into CHF? (Assuming CHF is your favorite)

There is risk with CHF. The SNB will drive CHF rates even more deeply negative than current -0.75% if they see large movements into CHF as a safe haven. A strong CHF would be devastating for Swiss economy during this crisis.

If they close down the markets, how many weeks would they do this for?

As long as needed. They need to stop people making panic investment decisions to sell...lol. Unlikely to happen but who knows.

I'm currently profiting from certain ETFs and stocks going down and want to stay in the US market as long as possible.

I would avoid ETF's totally during a financial crisis and especially complex inverse ETF's go with single stocks. Have you ever read fully the prospectus of of the ETF's you bought? Have your read any redemption or termination clauses in the ETF to see if its safe to buy? They often have many event clauses that could cause them to terminate.

Anyone wiht UBS's Leveraged Monthly Pay Etracs 2x series of ETF's is shafted right now. Like 7 ETF's of the range and still counting have been terminating due to price fall event clause in ETF....lol. I know people hit by this and they didn't read small print in ETF brochure

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-130800477.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-2xleveraged-125200759.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-124600399.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123800346.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000502.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000520.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000745.html

 

[bibing]

Buy 3M
You're welcome

and this is for 30 characters required here

 

[Nicholas Van Orton]

The bloody EU rejects France/Italy/Spain request for €400Bln relief injection into the economy. They say they 'will work something out' without detailing either the figures or the timing for it.

Utterly unbelievable. This is just starting. For those who 'believe' in the Euro, better have other currencies at hand and pronto....

 

[Nicholas Van Orton]

And won't brag about my TShitLA short position, because what I'm seeing everywhere right now doesn't look good, and while I welcome my profits, I pity what's ahead for the common people...this is pure elites-game that we have no idea where is it leading....people confined in their homes, a de facto martial law / state of siege without the SLIGHTEST evidence of this so-called big pandemic real effects....this is not for this forum, I know, but certainly we're seeing history in the making, and I have the bad feeling not with a happy ending.....

 

[Martin Everson]

Utterly unbelievable. This is just starting. For those who 'believe' in the Euro, better have other currencies at hand and pronto....

Well a weaker euro right now might help Eurozone exports but the US will weaken the dollar to compete and that will be followed by all other major currencies battling it out by lowering their currency to stay competitive i.e Swiss, Chinese, Canadian, British etc etc. I say "exports" but with a shutdown even this will be weaker .

this is pure elites-game that we have no idea where is it leading.

This may lead to a long term depression. Right now only market people care about is the supermarket. However I am watching the bond market carefully and have my hedging in place.

Hopefully this panic fades in a few months after the virus peaks. However the luckiest person in the room right now is the short.

 

[iloveyouguys]

There is risk with CHF. The SNB will drive CHF rates even more deeply negative than current -0.75% if they see large movements into CHF as a safe haven. A strong CHF would be devastating for Swiss economy during this crisis.



As long as needed. They need to stop people making panic investment decisions to sell...lol. Unlikely to happen but who knows.



I would avoid ETF's totally during a financial crisis and especially complex inverse ETF's go with single stocks. Have you ever read fully the prospectus of of the ETF's you bought? Have your read any redemption or termination clauses in the ETF to see if its safe to buy? They often have many event clauses that could cause them to terminate.

Anyone wiht UBS's Leveraged Monthly Pay Etracs 2x series of ETF's is shafted right now. Like 7 ETF's of the range and still counting have been terminating due to price fall event clause in ETF....lol. I know people hit by this and they didn't read small print in ETF brochure

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-130800477.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-2xleveraged-125200759.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-124600399.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123800346.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000502.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000520.htmlhttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/ubs-announces-mandatory-redemption-etracs-123000745.html

When should I get out of USD and where to put money instead, in your opinion?

I'm trading options with things like SPY. Not playing with inverse ETFs, too risky

 

[Martin Everson]

When should I get out of USD and where to put money instead, in your opinion?

See below what I wrote way back in Sep 2019 (it all came true btw) :

Hold cash and cash like instruments for me is the most sensible way to go in an overpriced market where valuations are at all time highs. I won't risk big capital on speculating. You have certainty with AAA treasury bonds and cash but with equities your simply speculating in where you think the stock price might go. The market seems to agree with that with yields on most AAA turning negative globally. I would rather know I am loosing 0.5% a year on a bond than buy equities and lose 30-50% and thats how the market is seeing it right now.

I'm trading options with things like SPY. Not playing with inverse ETFs, too risky

Have you read the 95 pages of SPDR SPY page brochure you are trading options on? . You shouldn't trade derivatives on a product you do not fully understand. You need to fully understand how an ETF works on a technical level and look for any clauses in the documentation that could shaft you.

https://us.spdrs.com/public/SPDR_500 TRUST_PROSPECTUS.pdf

 

[iloveyouguys]

See below what I wrote way back in Sep 2019 (it all came true btw) :






Have you read the 95 pages of SPDR SPY page brochure you are trading options on? . You shouldn't trade derivatives on a product you do not fully understand. You need to fully understand how an ETF works on a technical level and look for any clauses in the documentation that could shaft you.

https://us.spdrs.com/public/SPDR_500 TRUST_PROSPECTUS.pdf

Nice job for protecting your wealth. Even if I read such documents, I can't understand them I am a simple man. I predicted things will get worse due to coronavirus so I bet on it.

You said cash. I assume you would want to move to gold soon because of inflation

 

[kkein]

Nice job for protecting your wealth. Even if I read such documents, I can't understand them I am a simple man. I predicted things will get worse due to coronavirus so I bet on it.

You said cash. I assume you would want to move to gold soon because of inflation

Read above. Martin already wrote to get cash, not gold.

 

[Martin Everson]

You said cash. I assume you would want to move to gold soon because of inflation

No just cash.

I also predicted somewhere that physical cash will start exchanging hands at a premium to bank cash. If cash were to devalue substantially then we will no longer have a financial crisis but a systemic crisis. The very fabric of the global monetary system will have fallen apart. Gold will not gain in such a mad max scenario as governments will be draconian and simply confiscate or outlaw any transactions held in anything other than national currency and marshal law will be instilled.

P.S Did the US really just announce they will buy up to $1trn of commercial paper? That means they just announced they are willing to bail out the entire US commercial paper market. In plan English bail out the USD money market savings account and funds . So they know FDIC won't work....lol . You need physical cash folks. Don't wait for any bank to give you an excuse of why they can't give you your own money...think Lebanon banks..lol.

Anyway stay safe people and hopefully this will be over soon.

 

[iloveyouguys]

No just cash.

I also predicted somewhere that physical cash will start exchanging hands at a premium to bank cash. If cash were to devalue substantially then we will no longer have a financial crisis but a systemic crisis. The very fabric of the global monetary system will have fallen apart. Gold will not gain in such a mad max scenario as governments will be draconian and simply confiscate or outlaw any transactions held in anything other than national currency and marshal law will be instilled.

P.S Did the US really just announce they will buy up to $1trn of commercial paper? That means they just announced they are willing to bail out the entire US commercial paper market. In plan English bail out the USD money market savings account and funds . So they know FDIC won't work....lol . You need physical cash folks. Don't wait for any bank to give you an excuse of why they can't give you your own money...think Lebanon banks..lol.

Anyway stay safe people and hopefully this will be over soon.

Thanks for clearing that up

Question. Why would you be bothered by no FDIC if you don't need to withdraw your money RIGHT NOW? It's just numbers on a database. You can transfer those numbers from Bank A to Bank B and Broker C all over the world.

Have some physical cash that will last for a few years, ok I understand that.
Have some physical cash to buy cheap properties, ok I understand that too.
But what's the point of taking all your money to physical cash, when you don't need that? In last 100 years, markets consistently grew on average. Sitting on ALL cash is stupid because of inflation and opportunity cost. Isn't it? Just throw it on the market with +2 decades horizon and you will profit, unless something worse than great depression is coming.

 

[Nicholas Van Orton]

Thanks for clearing that up

Question. Why would you be bothered by no FDIC if you don't need to withdraw your money RIGHT NOW? It's just numbers on a database. You can transfer those numbers from Bank A to Bank B and Broker C all over the world.

Have some physical cash that will last for a few years, ok I understand that.
Have some physical cash to buy cheap properties, ok I understand that too.
But what's the point of taking all your money to physical cash, when you don't need that? In last 100 years, markets consistently grew on average. Sitting on ALL cash is stupid because of inflation and opportunity cost. Isn't it? Just throw it on the market with +2 decades horizon and you will profit, unless something worse than great depression is coming.

OP, never forget what they did to people in Cyprus (UE-SSR) in 2011...in the 'name of the greater good'. What MbS is pointing at is that those numbers in a database may be something that the powers that be are willing to play with at some point, and I pray I'm totally and unequivocally wrong... This is Stalin's or any communist weirdo WET dream come true....no war, no danger, just psychosis and there you have it...people treated like cattle and their lives threatened....for that bloody greater good....

 

[Martin Everson]

Question. Why would you be bothered by no FDIC if you don't need to withdraw your money RIGHT NOW?

Again I am from US or in USD. However I guess you are referring to those that are. You should be worried as if you have your life saving and bank collapses then you only have the FDIC coverage. If FDIC goes bust like it was days away from going bust during last crisis then you lose money.

But what's the point of taking all your money to physical cash, when you don't need that?

Read carefully what I wrote. I said cash and cash like instruments i.e AAA sovereign treasury bonds.

Sitting on ALL cash is stupid because of inflation and opportunity cost. Isn't it?

So warren buffet is stupid with his $160bn cash pile in US treasuries..lol? What is stupid is buying overvalued stocks to try and beat inflation. Look what just happened to fools right now who followed that strategy in S&P 500...lol.

Sitting on ALL cash is stupid because of inflation and opportunity cost. Isn't it?

Again it is not unless you can find value. The equity markets are completely overvalued and stock picking i.e trying to find value stocks is like hunting for truffles in the amazon rain forest in flip flops. Equities are the lowest and riskiest form of investment in a companies capital structure. You buy stocks when you are an insider and know whats happening in the company now and in the future. Otherwise you are just an outside speculator fool reading the front cover of the book without knowing whats in it. The equity markets are still overvalued right now even with the drop.....lol.

P.S I feel sorry for those planning to retire this year who hand not switched to cash or MM strategy their pension or retirement strategy. They will have to delay their retirement I guess or accept a substantial change in their retirement goals.

 

[iloveyouguys]

Good points

If FDIC goes bust like it was days away from going bust during last crisis then you lose money.

How can you tell it was days away from going bust in last crisis?