looking at the overall state of public infrastructure and how they work, i have a lot of doubts anything of sophisticated spy ops being able to be achieved.
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Gold Smuggling
- Thread starter wellington
- Start date
Knowing the people building out the backend side of it as they used to work for my company - from a AI perspective or data sifting and matching - ID hazard a guess it will be beyond expectations - also note I know that they also brought a Chinese infrastructure over in the dying days of the last administration which commenced in 2019 as well as extensive training.
Having said that the front end and security wise
Moving on from the “what if’s” -> seriously would it be worth the risk testing such in Thailand - bare in mind there was a Dutch guy years ago sentenced to 100 years after the Dutch government made inquiries -
Thai Goverment position was the funds were made from cannabis cafes which was illegal at the time so they stripped all his assets under money laundering and sentenced for 100 years - I believe he was released to the Dutch a few years ago and they immediately released him having realized that a civil matter had essentially resulted in such draconian measures by the Thai government, to give an indication of how petty they are they will even seize a cat saying its proceeds of laundering etc.
Having said that the front end and security wise
Moving on from the “what if’s” -> seriously would it be worth the risk testing such in Thailand - bare in mind there was a Dutch guy years ago sentenced to 100 years after the Dutch government made inquiries -
Thai Goverment position was the funds were made from cannabis cafes which was illegal at the time so they stripped all his assets under money laundering and sentenced for 100 years - I believe he was released to the Dutch a few years ago and they immediately released him having realized that a civil matter had essentially resulted in such draconian measures by the Thai government, to give an indication of how petty they are they will even seize a cat saying its proceeds of laundering etc.
They take the easy way out. Get a request, public interest is high in the case and they will slap you with whatever they can come up with to keep up with the appearance. Thats the way of life in all over Asia (Carlos can sing a song of that matter as well). The nail and the hammer thing.
I see it in africa, they somehow get very advanced spy tech or infra for biometric driver licenses and similar toys, but then its becoming basically useless as complex infra decays rapidly and requires vigor, diligence and hard work to maintain and develop further.
Id easily bet on Vietnam succeeding with such a thing much more for example, just from a work style perspective (having questions there too tho).
Sure you had very qualified staff, but even these will be quickly assimilated into the public service sector environment, where brightness just doesn't pay off and you gotta advance with lets say different means
.Also from a game theory point of view, they cant be too harsh on expats, they will simply leave and take the cash with them. The sea region still allows for great arbitrage plays for lets say the next 10 years to come.
But overall I agree with your points and I redirected my equity investing away from Thailand to some degree. It is just too much uncertainty to be make the juice worth the squeeze.
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100% this! You just described 90% of the countries right here. They can't keep up with the discipline to get things done! The only downside to this is if someone suspects "Gunther" (random name, of course). The people trying to protect their salaries & keep their jobs will make up evidence to appease their overlords, and Gunther will be the "sacrificial lamb." It even happens in "advanced societies" with "checks and balances": Innocence Project - Tens of Thousands Wrongly Convicted
PS. I wish I could upvote this 1 million times!
... Speaking as an expat, "Exactly".
... Very wise to avoid the squeezes.
@JackAlabama; if you've got any other, similar advice, I'll listen carefully.
well others from the region, like Vietnam. Not an easy market to access, but Thai based brokers can do it.
Malaysia and Indonesia have the drawback of having bad currencies. Other than that, certain African nations are interesting due to being very cheaply valued, but hard to execute.
There are still a few good plays in Thailand tho, namely in the agriculture-commodities space, I just make sure to have adequate position sizing of the portfolio due to whats going on.
Good observation, @DeepDrilling. Very good.thread which got almost 9000 views
Why so many, many, views?
Any thoughts?
My own speculation is that as "the state" clamps down on most kinds
of productive activity, everywhere, smuggling (of all kinds) will become a productive
and profitable activity.
Productive, but, of course, risky.
Readers of this forum (including the lurkers) seem well-attuned to the nuances of profit and risk in a flood of state oppression.
(Of course, plenty of agents of state oppression are lurking here, too. But always and everywhere there are spies, eh?)
There is a simple rule for the gold business - if you are not successfully in it for years - better to keep your hands off and don't even think about any lucrative discount opportunity.
You burn very quickly and guaranteed pay lots of learning fees along the painful learning curve.
You burn very quickly and guaranteed pay lots of learning fees along the painful learning curve.
Most believe in Gold when it comes to world crisis. I have a 1 Kg Bar in my office - looking at it and feel it from time to time is better than sex.
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