US losing its geopolitical dominance?

[FATCA]

I trust only one country's stock market returns: US.
For a few reasons:
1. US has oceans as its borders. No other real country has this advantage.
2. Ruthless capitalism is practiced better in the US than anywhere else. To profit, US and US companies sometimes k*ll and ab*se American and other children including the ones 10km away.
3. US controls majority of tools of information generation and distribution, e.g internet, motion picture, radio, schools, science. US has excellent brainwashing skills.
4. [This is not 100% certain but] US has been controlled by the same group for more than a century (See welcometothemachine dot co). I don't know what they want but I am guessing they would want to maintain the system they built.

Anything changed lately? I don't see anything significant changing in the points I wrote above. What do you think?

I ask because as soon as market thinks US is going to lose its geopolitical dominance in the world, US stock market should start experiencing something worse than great depression.

 

[W Fish]

You are leaving out the most important reason for US dominiance - the fact that back in the day it collected a lot/most gold from the rest of the world and persuaded other countries to use USD as reserve currency.
From there on, by printing=deflating dollars and "selling" them to the rest of the world, they are collecting wealth from everybody holding a dollar.

Bitcoin is changing this.

 

[thomasparra]

You are leaving out the most important reason for US dominiance - the fact that back in the day it collected a lot/most gold from the rest of the world and persuaded other countries to use USD as reserve currency.
From there on, by printing=deflating dollars and "selling" them to the rest of the world, they are collecting wealth from everybody holding a dollar.

Bitcoin is changing this.

What if the US hypothetically buys 50% of the current BTC supply? It would be around 1T in USD so they can afford it.

 

[daniels27]

What if the US hypothetically buys 50% of the current BTC supply? It would be around 1T in USD so they can afford it.

It gives them close to no advantage. They could then dump bitcoin and make the market rate dive. But they can do this already today with just one post on Truth Social or elsewhere, which cost them nothing.

 

[thomasparra]

It gives them close to no advantage. They could then dump bitcoin and make the market rate dive. But they can do this already today with just one post on Truth Social or elsewhere, which cost then nothing.

Then this invalidates the argument that BTC is the end game as a cryptocurrency or safeguard. As a reminder the annual federal budget of the US is about 4 times larger than the current market size of BTC. I was just trying to understand the rationale of W Fish.

 

[W Fish]

What if the US hypothetically buys 50% of the current BTC supply? It would be around 1T in USD so they can afford it.

That would be a smart move. They are actually having a summit about it on March, 7.
Your calculation about affordability is wrong:
1. They have other things, more important (in their and their voters opinion) to spend budget money on.
2. What effect would that buying have on price? Could they "afford" it with the new price?

Where did I talk anything about "end game as a cryptocurrency or safeguard"?

My rationale is that Bitcoin adoption is reducing the ability of US to gather wealth from the rest of the world by printing/inflating dollars in general.
In particular US (nor any other country) can not inflate away wealth from holders of Bitcoin.

 

[Martin Everson]

1. US has oceans as its borders. No other real country has this advantage.

Advantage in terms of what exactly?

2. Ruthless capitalism is practiced better in the US than anywhere else. To profit, US and US companies sometimes k*ll and ab*se American and other children including the ones 10km away.

Yes runaway capitalism is a problem. Get rich of die trying or shall we say let others die while your trying to get rich.

3. US controls majority of tools of information generation and distribution, e.g internet, motion picture, radio, schools, science. US has excellent brainwashing skills.

Yup these soft powers are fading however and people have woken up from being brainwashed due to alternative media and narratives prevelant.

4. [This is not 100% certain but] US has been controlled by the same group for more than a century (See welcometothemachine dot co). I don't know what they want but I am guessing they would want to maintain the system they built.

I have no idea.

Anything changed lately? I don't see anything significant changing in the points I wrote above. What do you think?

I ask because as soon as market thinks US is going to lose its geopolitical dominance in the world, US stock market should start experiencing something worse than great depression.

I would not tie US geopolitical dominance and stock market together. The US is losing its dominance in almost every field and most importantly in the field of morality and fairness on the global stage.

Its weaponising of the dollar has made countries seek to de-dollarize and now tariffs may re-route trade away from US in long term unless a reversal is made. The problem is China has the biggest middle class in the world. The dominance of the US will long term be gone and replaced with China.

But if your pointing out you only trust US stock market, well I am not a stock investor but size does not always equate to trust. I think people like regulation and deep liqudity of US equity markets compared to others. Lets hope there is no great depression as war often follows .

 

[batantantan]

1. US has oceans as its borders. No other real country has this advantage.

Not an imaginary country? Real!

And you have never heard of:
- Madagaskar
- Canada
- Greenland
- Iceland
- Palau, Bermudas, St. Lucia and dozen of others
- Malaysia (Thailand on the north, Singapore on the south, similar to US)
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Panama (again, a country on the north, and other on the south, similar to US)
- Nicaragua, Costa Rica
- Australia
- New Zeland
- UK
- Cuba
- Domincan Republic

?

 

[daniels27]

Not an imaginary country? Real!

And you have never heard of:
- Madagaskar
- Canada
- Greenland
- Iceland
- Palau, Bermudas, St. Lucia and dozen of others
- Malaysia (Thailand on the north, Singapore on the south, similar to US)
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Panama (again, a country on the north, and other on the south, similar to US)
- Nicaragua, Costa Rica
- Australia
- New Zeland
- UK
- Cuba
- Domincan Republic

?

They are all fake. Trust me

 

[daniels27]

My rationale is that Bitcoin adoption is reducing the ability of US to gather wealth from the rest of the world by printing/inflating dollars in general.
In particular US (nor any other country) can not inflate away wealth from holders of Bitcoin.

They just need to announce that the US will ban any person, both natural and juridical, from holding, transacting with and batering bitcoin. Then, they can buy all they want at discount. Then they announce that the US will ban any person, both natural and juridical, from holding, transacting with and batering USD in 2050. Then, they can sell all bitcoin at a high markup.

Really, in theory I agree with you. But with the volatility of BTC, there is still much left to be demaded.

 

[luap]

1. US has oceans as its borders. No other real country has this advantage.

Wasn't one of trumps main election points controlling one of the borders?

 

[void]

What if the US hypothetically buys 50% of the current BTC supply? It would be around 1T in USD so they can afford it.

they can't as there is no such liquidity in the markets
those who own it aren't selling and especially not for worthless USD
even if there was enough liquidity it could never happen without dramatic price increase (not talking about 2x)

once first serious nation (including any meaningless EU country) starts buying BTC the price will 10x overnight because of the snowball effect... no one can afford to stay behind
it will happen, it's non-optional, US can speed it up or slow it down, they can secure their position in the world or let others to seize the opportunity - what are the politicians and central bankers waiting for I don't understand, they have nothing to lose (everyone can see the financial system is a sand castle) and everything to gain

- Madagaskar
- Canada
- Greenland
- Iceland
- Palau, Bermudas, St. Lucia and dozen of others
- Malaysia (Thailand on the north, Singapore on the south, similar to US)
- Indonesia
- Philippines
- Panama (again, a country on the north, and other on the south, similar to US)
- Nicaragua, Costa Rica
- Australia
- New Zeland
- UK
- Cuba
- Domincan Republic

sovereignty and possession must be backed by physical power and ability to protect it - ask yourself a question which countries in the world actually exist not only on paper because of some temporary consensus
as usual I can only refer to Softwar by Jason Lowery (tough 400 pages worth reading) as the eloquent resource on this topic

which brings us back to bitcoin as no power in the world can take it from you and benefit from it - you can take it to the grave if you wish

 

[batantantan]

sovereignty and possession must be backed by physical power and ability to protect it - ask yourself a question which countries in the world actually exist not only on paper because of some temporary consensus

All of them exist.

And if one implied your logic that there'd be perhaps 3...10 countries in the world that exist, whilst others do so temporarily, mostly on paper, by some historic accidents.

 

[daniels27]

which brings us back to bitcoin as no power in the world can take it from you and benefit from it - you can take it to the grave if you wish

Didn't we just discuss this above? I think the volatility and the way bitcoin depends on the mood of the US president, clearly prove the opposite.

But in any case, if I walk around the world, I do not get the impression that bitcoin is taking over the planet. It rather seems that China is strenghten its dominance in many developing countries that the US has been more and more neglecting. And I also did not fail to notice that in many UN level discussions I was part, those countries are more and more siding with China rather than the US which does not really support them.

Trump's plan to counter those developments by even more neglect of small countries and its support of Russia does not really add up for me. It is not like he can be nice to Russia and then, he wins over China. The Russian-Chinese friendship will outlast Trump's remaining life expectancy.

 

[batantantan]

And if one implied your logic that there'd be perhaps 3...10 countries in the world that exist, whilst others do so temporarily, mostly on paper, by some historic accidents.

**applied
** then there'd

 

[HardRJones]

The US will remain a major player in the global order as long as it doesn’t fragment and dissolve into civil war. Even if its relative influence declines, the absolute influence will remain large.

Geographic isolation is a real thing. Canada and Mexico are weak and militarily/politically impotent and benign. There are other problems stemming from their proximity but it’s not like having Russia or China on the border.

Size, population, and sheer quantity of natural resources are another real thing. The US will continue to have vast quantities of farmland, fresh water, oil, minerals, and timber, and a large but not overcrowded population.

The US tax regime and some of the unpleasant cultural exports get a lot of negative attention. They are indeed horrible. However, outside of the tax regime the US does have a lot of personal freedom still ingrained into government and culture, and has a very straightforward business environment. The government corruption really isn’t worse than most places, including the EU, even though it gets a lot of attention these days. Some of that attention is because many Americans still believed in the fundamental honesty of government and are shocked at the scale of corruption, i.e. it was not just a few bad actors but actually approaches something like the EU, which everyone seems to shrug off as expected and say “bunga bunga” about.

Economic and capital inertia is also a thing. There are large capital and financial infrastructures in place and those will be slow to degrade even as the business climate becomes less favorable.

The US continues to be the healthiest nag in the glue factory when it comes to reserve currency due to the above factors and the fact that almost every nation’s debt and deficit is unsustainable. I don’t see anything fully supplanting the USD, with caveats discussed below.

I do see a continuing development of a multipolar world consisting of blocs and economic conduits between blocs. The US, EU, and the west are one such bloc. China, Russia, and friends are another. India currently acts as a conduit but might develop its own bloc in the future. Serbia, Turkey, and Armenia appear to be positioning as conduits, though Russia might force Armenia down the path Georgia appears to be taking. The central Asian states might turn out to be interesting. Brazil is an interesting case to watch, as well, as is El Salvador. This segmentation into blocs has and will continue to lead to a relative decrease in US influence. I don’t know how this development will ultimately shake out, but there is a lot potential opportunity if one can identify conduit nations and establish yourself in them to get a piece of these inter-bloc economic activities and flows. I’d expect new arrangements for payment and settlement within the blocs and between them which will decrease use of the USD as a reserve currency but not significantly supplant it. You see some of this already with India and Russia, and within the EAEU.