The Johnny Doe IBKR portfolio

[wellington]

USA will die slowly and gradually like the Great British Empire and all the other empires before it. Acwi will adapt to the new reality, as an index is a dynamic environment.


Hollywood did a great job.

US entered decline after 911 British only stopped training the yanks on how to run a fleet during the 80s

They were a economic super power from the 40s mainly due to their lend lease program which gutted the wealth of the British Empire and overseas territories -> sending gold, and broke the back of Britain by being one of the few countries to actually repay it after financing Germany’s rebuild (think we repaid WW1 just a few years ago).

Also the US push for the breaking of empires alongside our completely leveraged position fighting for Europe and freedom (remember the yanks only arrived towards the end, the Russians would have arrived slightly later but otherwise it would still have been won).

From the 80s when the US could finally field a fleet without training conductors onboard that’s when they become a world super power - Saudi has all the tools for example but none of the knowhow on how to operate without US trainers or mercenaries from the private military services) that was basically the US up until that point and with the absorbing of the brightest minds from Germany and theft of British, French atomic knowledge (and then shutting them out) the US was well placed to become a world leader.

But 9/11 changed everything - they over extended themselves and have continuously done so since.

They can of-course reprice the gold in their vaults to modern values to extinguish their debts but the world would be very volatile during that period.

The dollar isn’t itself the world reserve currency, the demand for $ to service the Euro dollar market which is the world reserve currency (ledgers) is 400 trillion in value of offbook and on book debts that’s the only thing really keeping the $ alive internationally, the oil demand for dollars is the basics of its velocity but is tiny in the world of trade so when you begin to see debts being created in higher velocity then you know the dollar will end and the US will then start to implode.

For now it’s like a supernova sucking everything in and up.

 

[Martin Everson]

@Martin Everson Have you seen this?

https://www.shadowstats.com/inflation_calculator

No

 

[Martin Everson]

The whole word is tied to one country: USA. If USA collapse, it would be end of humanity.

You may want to cancel your FOX News subscription. Hope this is just sarcasm

 

[Cavaliere]

USA will die slowly and gradually like the Great British Empire and all the other empires before it. Acwi will adapt to the new reality, as an index is a dynamic environment.

Given your conviction, I would have expected more directional plays towards that happening. You are very concentrated in US-related products in your portfolio. The gov. bonds you own are... from the US. I will not delve deeper but if I will I am sure I will find that your investment strategy is strongly biased towards the opposite of what you are certain of happening over the long term.

Furthermore, there may be other empires that claim the position as great power #1, but they will likely not be as capitalistic. If you look at which countries will challenge the US, they will most likely not be an investment space as great as the US is. Stock-markets are a product of capitalism after all, and it is rabidly capitalist countries that provide superior returns.

and all the other empires before it

And like all other empires before it, decade after decade after decade people will claim the imminent downfall of the empire in question long before it actually happened. You could have said the same after The Siege of Vienna, The Opium Wars or The Battle of Plassey. Yes, the downfall of the empire was foreshadowed by these events, but they existed for a very long time after. The US has not even had such a moment as of yet, the likelier empire to decline is China with its terrible demographics, internal pressures and incredibly high upkeep to keep the population in check.

Whatever you are reading into the decline of the US, you might as well read into China which fell apart a great many times while the US never did so apart from the Civil War which was succesfully repelled.

Given your conviction though, I would be interested to hear a concise thesis on what will happen and how you will profit of it. When Oswald Spengler wrote "The Decline of The West", the greatest boom in wealth and living standards happened afterwards, and for over a hundred years before that book intellecuals had been shouting that the West was in terminal decline. None of it proved true...

 

[JohnnyDoe]

You are very concentrated in US-related products in your portfolio.

I am not. You don't know how I balance my holdings.

Given your conviction though, I would be interested to hear a concise thesis on what will happen and how you will profit of it.

I am not making predictions, I am just observing what is happening.

 

[Sols]

The topic is Johnny Doe's IBKR portfolio and closely related matters. Let's try to not turn this into politics.

 

[jafo]

The topic is Johnny Doe's IBKR portfolio and closely related matters. Let's try to not turn this into politics.

Thank you!

 

[Oumerty]

Thank you for sharing such a detailed asset allocation

Love how you spread and balanced risk to minimise maintenance whatever may happen geopolitically

See you use one of the most reputable brokers out there

You opened me the world of ETFs

Great Jonny

 

[Dreamy]

Where are the actual shares of specific companies? Only ETF?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Where are the actual shares of specific companies? Only ETF?

I’m holding RIVN, BAC, MMM, VZ

This is not financial advice. The reasons why I bought these shares might not be good for you, then and/or now.

 

[Cavaliere]

I would just sit and wait.

Bulls make money, bears make money but pigs, pigs get slaughtered.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Updated for 2024. The yield is now 9,6%.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

A few days ago I added BAYN to my portfolio, as it has a yield of 8.5% and a P/E of -8 (yes, it’s negative).

 

[Jerry1911]

They can of-course reprice the gold in their vaults to modern values to extinguish their debts but the world would be very volatile during that period.

Could you please expand on this?

A few days ago I added BAYN to my portfolio, as it has a yield of 8.5% and a P/E of -8 (yes, it’s negative).

Isn't that because they've been losing money for quite some time now?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Isn't that because they've been losing money for quite some time now?

no it’s because of fear of the consequences of the Monsanto lawsuits, but so far they haven’t paid out a single cent and it seems to me that their position is strong. Dividends could be cut as well, but this should be already priced in. If it happens and the return falls below 6% I will sell when price goes up.

 

[jafo]

A few days ago I added BAYN to my portfolio, as it has a yield of 8.5% and a P/E of -8 (yes, it’s negative).

If you don't mind me asking, why did you choose BAYN?

PS. I'm asking, because I tried to calculate its intrinsic value and frankly I can't figure sh1t out! My fundamentals might be totally off too or the most common denominator...its calculation is above my IQ capacity (which isn't much, to be honest )

 

[ImKing]

This is a very good and useful thread if you, like me, want to start a stock portfolio from scratch. Great initiative by the OP.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

If you don't mind me asking, why did you choose BAYN?

Dividends, sector diversification, value, future outlook.

PS. I'm asking, because I tried to calculate its intrinsic value and frankly I can't figure sh1t out! My fundamentals might be totally off too or the most common denominator...its calculation is above my IQ capacity (which isn't much, to be honest )

This is a good start: Bayer Aktiengesellschaft (BAYN) Company Information - Simply Wall St
You can also check how the Monsanto lawsuits are progressing in the news and on pacer.

This is a very good and useful thread if you, like me, want to start a stock portfolio from scratch. Great initiative by the OP.

I have a focus on dividends, so my portfolio might not fit you if you seek pure growth. For example, I expect certain holdings to never increase or to lose value.
Additionally, I am deliberately underweighted in tech.

 

[thomasparra]

I have always been torn between full growth vs. div stocks for part/most of my portfolio. Nowadays, I am happy with the risk free rate of 4.5% in long term US treasuries. But I can see the appeal, under normal and lower risk free rate periods to have a part of your assets in div stocks for income.

 

[JohnnyDoe]

I have always been torn between full growth vs. div stocks for part/most of my portfolio. Nowadays, I am happy with the risk free rate of 4.5% in long term US treasuries. But I can see the appeal, under normal and lower risk free rate periods to have a part of your assets in div stocks for income.

You can use dividends to buy growth stocks. 4.5% is below inflation, not a good investment.
There are also very good bonds yielding 7-12%, most with $100k-500k minimum size though and I’m not sure you can buy them all with IBKR (I do that via the bank).