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The end of tax havens?

Frank Funk

Frank Funk

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Jul 9, 2022
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The Balkan
#1
A service I am subscribed to released a report saying that tax havens will have to pick up compliance or be excluded from the financial system.
In 2009, the political leaders of the G20 countries declared that "the era of banking secrecy is over". During the ensuing years, the 8 RESEARCH REPORT: JULIUS BÄR 13 July 2022 succinctly named Global Forum on Transparency and Exchange of Information for Tax Purposes ("the Global Forum") forced other jurisdictions to eliminate banking secrecy, at least vis-a-vis tax authorities. This little-known organisation has completely transformed the operating landscape for offshore financial centres. Since 2017 and 2018, almost all offshore financial centres participate in the Automatic Exchange of Information ("AEOI") on financial accounts held by non-residents.
We are soon going to witness the next shoe dropping. Many people will realise that governments the world over will increasingly restrict how they can utilise their wealth, based also on where they keep it. Watch this space for an earthquake that will hit investors with offshore wealth, and which will shake the foundations of the financial industry over the coming months and years.

Clean jurisdictions: countries such as Switzerland or the Channel Islands (Guernsey, Jersey), which cooperated with these new global plans
The stragglers: countries such as Panama, the British Virgin Islands, the Cayman Islands, Malta, or Cyprus, which dragged their feet while adjusting to the new standards and implemented many changes half-heartedly.
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Any plans or opinions around this?
 
#2
bulls**t.... there will always be tax havens, the question and difficulty is where to set it up and how to do so.

It's a problem now a days, but it's possible if you have a good business case and plenty of money.
 
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#6
A tax heaven will just become a low/no tax jurisdiction in which one will have to live to take advantage of it. Monaco isn't going anywhere.

The idea that you could simply take briefcases full of money to a Swiss bank and deposit it no questions asked is silly to begin with and only benefitted those with, well suitcases full of cash. Reduce or eliminate your tax liability legally and live free, is probably easier today than at any other point in history.
 
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#8
JackAlabama said:
They will switch to use bitcoin, than no arbitrary power can exclude anyone.
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Yeah I am thinking the same. As regulations on Tax Havens get more complex, only the powerful and the wealthy (who likely already do not pay their fair share in taxes!) will be able to set up such structures and get away with it. This will just make our unequal societies even more so. Bitcoin will be just about the only thing that can help to level the playing field a bit.
 
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#9
DBeker said:
Yeah I am thinking the same. As regulations on Tax Havens get more complex, only the powerful and the wealthy (who likely already do not pay their fair share in taxes!) will be able to set up such structures and get away with it. This will just make our unequal societies even more so. Bitcoin will be just about the only thing that can help to level the playing field a bit.
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The really wealthy and powerful can live in high tax countries and get their custom tailored rate. They might pay up to like a 7digit sum (which is very small of overall income earned).
But that is such a small number of people.

So yah, some smaller nations can opt to trade internationally in Bitcoin only (e.g. Russia would accept Btc for energy) while still keeping their local currency for seignorage privilege of the local ruling class.

https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/russia-is-open-to-selling-natural-gas-for-bitcoin
 
#11
Sols said:
It's not the end of tax havens. It's the continued, ongoing end of secrecy. Those who still rely on secrecy are indeed in for a bumpy ride, but that's practically no one serious and legitimate.
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agreed though I do think that cryptocurrency does through a bit of a curve ball in the path of total financial transparency. Crypto can be on/off ramped with no KYC and always will be able to at a premium. Holding or simply swapping through Monero skirts blockchain analysis. Their will always be tax evaders and other more serious criminals who need to move illicit funds anonymously, dirty money is never going away and I suspect crypto is where its new home will reside in the next decade as a lot of it already does currently of course too.
 
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#12
Frank Funk said:
A service I am subscribed to released a report saying that tax havens will have to pick up compliance or be excluded from the financial system.
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The 160 jurisdictions that make up the OECD Forum on Transparency is just to keep U.S happy sadly as it pays the lions share of the bills ;). Always good to stay in their good books.

I think the global financial system as we know it will fracture along geopolitical lines at some point with a BRICS system on one side and the current U.S dominated one on the other.

Only then people will get to choose between friendship with U.S on one side and economic hard reality on the other. Threats of exclusion will work in the short term as exclusion is brutal for small tax havens like mine (Bahamas). We are not self sufficient in any shape or form to argue...lol. But long term the U.S's financial order and its control of the global financial system will diminish. This will make threats by OECD's Global Forum on Transparency and its largest funder the U.S an exercise in self harm ;).
 
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#13
Martin Everson said:
The 160 jurisdictions that make up the OECD Forum on Transparency is just to keep U.S happy sadly as it pays the lions share of the bills ;). Always good to stay in their good books.

I think the global financial system as we know it will fracture along geopolitical lines at some point with a BRICS system on one side and the current U.S dominated one on the other.

Only then people will get to choose between friendship with U.S on one side and economic hard reality on the other. Threats of exclusion will work in the short term as exclusion is brutal for small tax havens like mine (Bahamas). We are not self sufficient in any shape or form to argue...lol. But long term the U.S's financial order and its control of the global financial system will diminish. This will make threats by OECD's Global Forum on Transparency and its largest funder the U.S an exercise in self harm ;).
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So your theory is basically that with BRICS we may see the classical offshore system come back since the small tax havens could use BRICS as oppossed to SWIFT thus the OECD and US losing basically all its leverage... so now we are in a unsustainable transitionary period where they attempt to crack down on all havens but we will eventually see this system collapse due to the emergence of a multipolar world? China/Russia will be incentivized to allow these havens as a way of further trying to hurt the west perhaps through erosion of their tax base?
 
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#14
Vor said:
So your theory is basically that with BRICS we may see the classical offshore system come back since the small tax havens could use BRICS as oppossed to SWIFT thus the OECD and US losing basically all its leverage... so now we are in a unsustainable transitionary period where they attempt to crack down on all havens but we will eventually see this system collapse due to the emergence of a multipolar world? China/Russia will be incentivized to allow these havens as a way of further trying to hurt the west perhaps through erosion of their tax base?
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Pretty much, yes. You already see a lot of talk around Russia, China and co. working on a commodity backed currency, Egypt, KSA and Turkey joining Brics, KSA considering other currencies for oil payment and them giving Biden the cold shoulder, Russia talking about friendly countries and Gold/BTC...
And let's not forgot that (I think) 80+ countries have not condemned the Russian invasion or stayed neutral on the matter, most of the global south does not give a f about the western direction around this.

Just imagine during the OPEC+ meeting on Aug 3rd they announce payment in some other currencies is possible.

We are in the budding phase of a multipolar world, let's just hope for a smoothish transition.
 
#15
Martin Everson said:
The 160 jurisdictions that make up the OECD Forum on Transparency is just to keep U.S happy sadly as it pays the lions share of the bills ;). Always good to stay in their good books.

I think the global financial system as we know it will fracture along geopolitical lines at some point with a BRICS system on one side and the current U.S dominated one on the other.

Only then people will get to choose between friendship with U.S on one side and economic hard reality on the other. Threats of exclusion will work in the short term as exclusion is brutal for small tax havens like mine (Bahamas). We are not self sufficient in any shape or form to argue...lol. But long term the U.S's financial order and its control of the global financial system will diminish. This will make threats by OECD's Global Forum on Transparency and its largest funder the U.S an exercise in self harm ;).
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Good analysis.
My crystal ball calls for 3 blocks.

The us one with the usd for the west and japan/southkorea, the china one with their yuan cbdc for maybe the -stans and some close trading partners and eventually some african nations.
and then the brics/developing block with a basket of national currencies, commodity based things and bitcoin. Absent of a "trusted" standard, this basket will be a mix.

Moving between these blocks will be a key skill and a good spot to make money but it will not be easy and might be even illegal.
 
#19
RealDude said:
Let's wait until the real estate bubble explodes in China and then see what happens.
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Simple. Lockdowns.
Second. Money printing. Which will come to the west afterwards (lets say a 9months period).

China is not the driver any more. That is yesterdays news.
Brasil and India are more interesting as well as the nations not in there yet.
 
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