Russia's economic, political and social prospects

[mraleph]

The ГАЗПРОМ profits sharply declined without positive perspective as per their consolidated reports

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-plans-cut-staff-central-office-2025-01-13/

and

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025...-off-1600-managers-amid-wartime-losses-a87589

and

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gas-giant-braces-mass-layoffs-plunging-profits-2013925

Their contribution to Russia's budget is/was paramount.

Power of Siberia and other energy export routes are desaturated.

Russia's energy sector has been sanctioned and with them any connected entity anywhere by United States and United Kingdom with EU to follow suit

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...y-will-destabilise-global-markets-2025-01-13/

It's reasonable to assume that president elect Donald Trump's administration will pursue the same policies.

What are OCT community thoughts about future of Russia?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

What are OCT community thoughts about future of Russia?

Thread 'Russia residence - my journey'

Sep 21, 2024

Applied via Shared Value Residency

• JohnnyDoe
• Replies: 102
• Forum: Second Citizenship, Golden Visa & Immigration

• 
• 
• 

 

[John Spectre]

long term: it will collapse.
in the short term: it could swim around sanctions for a very long time, trying to show that everything is okay there.

 

[mraleph]

long term: it will collapse.
in the short term, it could swim around sanctions for a very long time, trying to show that everything is okay there.

The fact that Ukraine declined to extend a gas transit contract is another factor that impacts an economic basis and budget of Russian Federation.

Thread 'Russia residence - my journey'

Sep 21, 2024

Applied via Shared Value Residency

• JohnnyDoe
• Replies: 102
• Forum: Second Citizenship, Golden Visa & Immigration

• 
• 
• 

Your content is always interesting. But, I feel I should say that establishing residence or business presence in Russia may not be the best course of action, considering bleak strategic perspective.

Russia's ally, Islamic Republic of Iran was also effectively strategicaly defeated by Israel. Syria's civil war has ended with Israeli and Western influence. Iran also engages EU member countries in nuclear diplomacy talks.

PRC will be crumbled by looming US tarrifs.

The idea of multipolar world and BRIKS is being deconstructed systematicaly.

So, is Russia now isolated diplomatically and broken economically?

 

[polonieth]

The ГАЗПРОМ profits sharply declined without positive perspective as per their consolidated reports

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russias-gazprom-plans-cut-staff-central-office-2025-01-13/

and

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025...-off-1600-managers-amid-wartime-losses-a87589

and

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-gas-giant-braces-mass-layoffs-plunging-profits-2013925

Their contribution to Russia's budget is/was paramount.

Power of Siberia and other energy export routes are desaturated.

Russia's energy sector has been sanctioned and with them any connected entity anywhere by United States and United Kingdom with EU to follow suit

https://www.reuters.com/business/en...y-will-destabilise-global-markets-2025-01-13/

It's reasonable to assume that president elect Donald Trump's administration will pursue the same policies.

What are OCT community thoughts about future of Russia?

You referenced the Moswcow Times - CIA Backed,

Reuters - their anti-soviet work stems back to the 60s, and even in 2021, leaked documents revealed that Reuters was still involved in an information warfare program run by the British Foreign Office and British intelligence contractors to “weaken Russian influence” and effect “attitudinal change” in various parts of the world...

So remember to take what you read here with a big pinch of salt. Or are you on the payroll too?

 

[JohnnyDoe]

Yes, Russia is dying. The future is Greenland.

 

[mraleph]

You referenced the Moswcow Times - CIA Backed,

Reuters - their anti-soviet work stems back to the 60s, and even in 2021, leaked documents revealed that Reuters was still involved in an information warfare program run by the British Foreign Office and British intelligence contractors to “weaken Russian influence” and effect “attitudinal change” in various parts of the world...

So remember to take what you read here with a big pinch of salt. Or are you on the payroll too?

Whatever the references - they're Western, but they are quoting the official ГАЗПРОМ annual and consolidated reports with board's recommendations. You may find and inspect the ГАЗПРОМ document from the following, Russian source

https://m.47news.ru/articles/263385/

I don't quite understand why are you commenting the sources and not a cross-referenced content that is authentic. Sources may be compromised but it's comparison process that establishes the credibility of the source and authenticity of the information.

I'm trained to acquire knowledge from contradictory sources and think impartiallly as much as possible without biases of any kind.

Your question about me being on a Western intelligence organizations payroll can be asked inversely - are you on a payroll of a СВР or ГРУ?

And to answer your question - no, I'm on my own payroll.

 

[polonieth]

I think it's even worse news for the EU. But no mention of that in those pieces.

Europe will lose up to 10% of its annual energy consumption, with the most affected countries being the Eastern countries outside of the EU - Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine. The latter, who are saying this is another 'victory' will be deprived of direct Russian gas supplies and 1 billion dollars each year paid as a transit fee.

Russia will lose 5 billion dollars annually, but it will continue to supply Europe with gas via the TurkStream pipeline, so it still has something.

But the ties between cheap Russian energy and Western Europe will be reduced even further, and the EU industrial sector will basically cease to exist. Germany especially is going to be massively fucked. Maybe they even leave the EU.

The Ukrainian energy sector will also be weaker than ever and will require Europe to reverse some of its gas supplies to them further destroying the EU economy.

It's a lose-lose kind of situation for both Russia and EU. Winners here are the US and Turkey.

I guess Putin was mistaken to rely on Europe as a partner and thinking some contracts would keep things in going. They proved to be completely untrustworthy. But not sure the takeaway is Russia is finished though or has a bleak outlook. It will still supply via Turkey. Its the EU economy will be crippled, but what else is new.

And an American wants to buy Nord Stream 2?

"Lynch argued that after the war ends, it will be “tempting for both Russia and its former customers in Germany and Europe to turn on the pipeline, regardless of who owns it,” the WSJ writes. According to the paper’s sources, the investor believes he could acquire the operator, valued at approximately $11 billion, for “pennies on the dollar.” He has also said that many investors will avoid bidding due to geopolitical risks, while other potential buyers many not align with U.S. interests.

The businessman told the WSJ that the pipeline’s auction is a “once-in-a-generation opportunity for American and European control over European energy supply for the rest of the fossil-fuel era.”

 

[mraleph]

I think it's even worse news for the EU. But no mention of that in those pieces.

Europe will lose up to 10% of its annual energy consumption, with the most affected countries being the Eastern countries outside of the EU - Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine. The latter, who are saying this is another 'victory' will be deprived of direct Russian gas supplies and 1 billion dollars each year paid as a transit fee.

Russia will lose 5 billion dollars annually, but it will continue to supply Europe with gas via the TurkStream pipeline, so it still has something.

But the ties between cheap Russian energy and Western Europe will be reduced even further, and the EU industrial sector will basically cease to exist. Germany especially is going to be massively fucked. Maybe they even leave the EU.

The Ukrainian energy sector will also be weaker than ever and will require Europe to reverse some of its gas supplies to them further destroying the EU economy.

It's a lose-lose kind of situation for both Russia and EU. Winners here are the US and Turkey.

I guess Putin was mistaken to rely on Europe as a partner and thinking some contracts would keep things in going. They proved to be completely untrustworthy. But not sure the takeaway is Russia is finished though or has a bleak outlook. It will still supply via Turkey. Its the EU economy will be crippled, but what else is new.

And an American wants to buy Nord Stream 2?

Status quo ante bellum.

NS/Северный поток 1 & 2 (unofficialy, air is being pumped thru pipes to prevent corosion) and TS/Турецкий поток will probably be acquired by third parties held by US and Middle Eastern entities who will be compliant with the EU third party access exemption.

The gas will flow from ГАЗПРОМ and Central Asian republics towards Turkey and Europe.

The net losers will be Ukraine and Poland.

But, my question - though implicative - was precise. OCT community thoughts and opinions about rapid loss for ГАЗПРОМ, implications for a Russian budget and mid-term prospects. Greenland, Panama and Canada issues are probably going to be rendered as planned which may mark the end of an era and a new partition of the interest spheres. Realpolitik. And has a relevance to thread question.

And, no, I'm not against any beligerent - Russia, China and West - in any kind. Only impartial. Not accepting any beligerent's propaganda that their system is a paradise