Thesis: US, Europe and Russia are distracted with each other. So they will attack TR less (politically, economically, ...) and they will need TR more. This means a more stable TR. This should increase prices of immovable property, especially finite ones.
I am considering agricultural and residential land to bet on TR. Houses have less upside potential. Stock market is too corrupt.
What I am hoping: We'd skip a global real estate crash. We get low rates instead. I exit when Fed starts to increase rates, depending on how aggressive they are.
Upside potential
- If low interest rates return, house prices might see another 150% increase like it happened with covid pandemic. Locals don't protest so it can happen.
- Location I am looking at is safe from earthquakes. 2023 quake increased prices here significantly.
Risks
- A global real estate market crash.
- Low interest rates not returning anytime soon.
- Istanbul earthquake (and a few million deaths) might lead to cancellation of property rights.
- TRY devaluation might cause too much devaluation of local assets.
- - Carry trade situation might lead to this.
- - Government is stabilizing TRY by burning money to buy (and sell) lira. Government might decide TRY is too expensive.
What do you think? Especially about the risks? I'd highly appreciate your insight if you have experience in timing the market or understanding geopolitics
I am considering agricultural and residential land to bet on TR. Houses have less upside potential. Stock market is too corrupt.
What I am hoping: We'd skip a global real estate crash. We get low rates instead. I exit when Fed starts to increase rates, depending on how aggressive they are.
Upside potential
- If low interest rates return, house prices might see another 150% increase like it happened with covid pandemic. Locals don't protest so it can happen.
- Location I am looking at is safe from earthquakes. 2023 quake increased prices here significantly.
Risks
- A global real estate market crash.
- Low interest rates not returning anytime soon.
- Istanbul earthquake (and a few million deaths) might lead to cancellation of property rights.
- TRY devaluation might cause too much devaluation of local assets.
- - Carry trade situation might lead to this.
- - Government is stabilizing TRY by burning money to buy (and sell) lira. Government might decide TRY is too expensive.
What do you think? Especially about the risks? I'd highly appreciate your insight if you have experience in timing the market or understanding geopolitics
