Far-right leader Geert Wilders wins Dutch election - Nexit ???

[Alonzo]

https://www.politico.eu/article/far-right-leader-geert-wilders-wins-dutch-election-exit-poll/
FantomOffshore Do you think the Netherlands will leave the EU? I see that a lot of parties in NL are surprisingly eurosceptic.
They might leave if PVV has enough collaborators for an outright majority (76 seats).

 

[Martin Everson]

Netherlands leaving the EU errrr.....zero chance. Not even Orban's Hungary thought that was a good idea in reality despite his anti-EU rhetoric.

I think he will be ineffective without a majority. If Netherlands thought they had a reputation on the international stage that may disappear if Geert does not police his own views and polices. Only internal division will prevail just like in US.

But interesting times for Netherlands and I wish them well.

P.S Still waiting for someone to blame his win on Putin

 

[Percy]

Agree with @Martin Everson. The other main parties have already ruled out working with Wilders and he just does not have the numbers, skills or nous to be able to become PM. Having said that, was a little surprised at how many people still voted for him.

 

[Alonzo]

Netherlands leaving the EU errrr.....zero chance. Not even Orban's Hungary thought that was a good idea in reality despite his anti-EU rhetoric.

I think he will be ineffective without a majority. If Netherlands thought they had a reputation on the international stage that may disappear if Geert does not police his own views and polices. Only internal division will prevail just like in US.

But interesting times for Netherlands and I wish them well.

P.S Still waiting for someone to blame his win on Putin

Then what EU country do you think can survive if they somehow leave the EU?

 

[wellington]

A wash of Right of Center and Extreme Right would do Europe good.
Balance out the Extreme Left.

 

[Cavaliere]

Then what EU country do you think can survive if they somehow leave the EU?

I personally think that the EU could be remoulded if FN wins in France, AfD in Germany and Meloni is in power in Italy. Until there is a strong national-socialist / fascist force (which are legitimate political streams) nothing much will happen to the Dutch EU membership. I strongly believe AfD for Germany will accrue even more power than the PVV, and if that happens eyes will be on France. Were the French elections to coincide with a strong inflationary flow and / or recessions who knows what could happen as then there would be a major block in the EU that would be a hardliner against migration.

There are easily exploitable sentiments so this bloc could come up with some kind of "united native Europe" ideology against foreign infiltrators. That everything non-European threatens the ancient and supreme European way of life. Most Europeans are in the end conservative. They don't want to give up their way of life and regional drinks and food is deeply entrenched in many of the European nations that are threatened by green energy policies / global warming by making them too expensive for ordinary people to enjoy. This will be one of the major developments to be exploited by nationalists, as well as inflation which can be casted as capitalism gone too far.

The fact that the Dutch elected the farmers party as #1 in the regional elections rhymes very much with the farmer as the perfect national-socialist, unburdened by cosmopolitics, capital to forego work and foreign influences. The supreme soul of the nation state burns inside him, ready to zealously toil for the benefit of the only nation he deeply knows. Also pay attention to the historically low fertility rates and how this could be used (we must multiply lest we are taken over by muslims).

Trying to take on the EU alone is never going to work, and a Nexit would be disastrous for business. In my opinion, if someone is annoyed by the EU rules, internal gridlock is vastly preferable over a full-exit.

A wash of Right of Center and Extreme Right would do Europe good.

Be careful what you wish for, national-socialism is at heart a deeply anti-capitalist force with as culprits of the propagation of capitalism the UK (which has left the EU and is a bit of an outcast) and the United States.

In my opinion one of the biggest failures of the EU is the inability to have united at least Western-Europeans across the lower-classes. Frankly people were more concerned about helping non-Europeans and now the existence of the bloc is threatened by sentiments against those very same non-Europeans.

 

[Martin Everson]

Then what EU country do you think can survive if they somehow leave the EU?

Leaving the EU is not an option but civil disobedience maybe. Think of Hungary but with more clout if Netherlands decides to go full rogue on EU. Again I doubt it as he does not have the numbers to do anything. He will likely be a lame duck ushered out at the next election through the backdoor.

I personally think that the EU could be remoulded if FN wins in France, AfD in Germany and Meloni is in power in Italy. Until there is a strong national-socialist / fascist force (which are legitimate political streams) nothing much will happen to the Dutch EU membership. I strongly believe AfD for Germany will accrue even more power than the PVV, and if that happens eyes will be on France. Were the French elections to coincide with a strong inflationary flow and / or recessions who knows what could happen as then there would be a major block in the EU that would be a hardliner against migration.

There are easily exploitable sentiments so this bloc could come up with some kind of "united native Europe" ideology against foreign infiltrators. That everything non-European threatens the ancient and supreme European way of life. Most Europeans are in the end conservative. They don't want to give up their way of life and regional drinks and food is deeply entrenched in many of the European nations that are threatened by green energy policies / global warming by making them too expensive for ordinary people to enjoy. This will be one of the major developments to be exploited by nationalists, as well as inflation which can be casted as capitalism gone too far.

The fact that the Dutch elected the farmers party as #1 in the regional elections rhymes very much with the farmer as the perfect national-socialist, unburdened by cosmopolitics, capital to forego work and foreign influences. The supreme soul of the nation state burns inside him, ready to zealously toil for the benefit of the only nation he deeply knows. Also pay attention to the historically low fertility rates and how this could be used (we must multiply lest we are taken over by muslims).

Trying to take on the EU alone is never going to work, and a Nexit would be disastrous for business. In my opinion, if someone is annoyed by the EU rules, internal gridlock is vastly preferable over a full-exit.


Be careful what you wish for, national-socialism is at heart a deeply anti-capitalist force with as culprits of the propagation of capitalism the UK (which has left the EU and is a bit of an outcast) and the United States.

In my opinion one of the biggest failures of the EU is the inability to have united at least Western-Europeans across the lower-classes. Frankly people were more concerned about helping non-Europeans and now the existence of the bloc is threatened by sentiments against those very same non-Europeans.

You raise some good points here. I think only if the political situation changes in Germany it could cause issues for the EU. The rest of the countries are lower down on the poll of political and economic importance and clout. I think sound liberal minds will win in end otherwise the EU project could become dangerously destabilized.

P.S You forgot to mention everyone will blame Putin for those wins...lol.

 

[Cavaliere]

Again I doubt it as he does not have the numbers to do anything. He will likely be a lame duck ushered out at the next election through the backdoor.

Much too early to say, if the elections would be done over again today, the PVV would win even more seats likely. Also do not disregard the outsize influence of Voetbal Inside, a soccer talk-show which has recently been positive towards Wilders. The media-tycoon behind it would love to see the public broadcasting company abolished which is something the PVV wants to do. The lead-ideologist behind the PVV, Martin Bosma, has also said a couple of times that he wanted John de Mol to have the broadcasting right for soccer in The Netherlands which would give him incredible amounts of power. On top of that, John tried to buy the leading right-wing Dutch newspaper "De Telegraaf" through an acquisition of TMG (Telegraaf Media Group).

Furthermore, the left-wing fusion of PVDA and GroenLinks has turned out to be a massive failure, leaving the Left without much agency, it's very unlikely they would gain any votes would the election be called again.

The game of poker is still in full-play, and will likely take some months. I would say the cards are stacked in the favor of Wilders, as the VVD not wanting to negotiate allows him to blame them for not adhering to the will of the people and call the election again. After which he would likely receive a lot of disregarded VVD votes.

85% of VVD voters wanted to see VVD rule with PVV, but they chose to just not partake into any negotiations for now. A cynic could say because Rutte wants to take the helm at the NAVO and told his party no to not lose his friends in Brussels.

Lastly, if you look at other countries in Europe, once a populist gains hold / takes the lead it is very hard to get rid of them! Everything that goes wrong is the mistake of partners and everything that goes right is what they did. Combined with proper media back-up in the form of John de Mol, normalization of extreme views, neighboring countries with increasing extremism as well and a LOT of problems that are still unsolved, Wilders odds look quite good to be a force to be reckoned with.

The huge inflationary pressure on food is also not to be joked with, with two years of El Nino approaching we are certainly in for wild times. Just this month olive oil increased massively. Food prices are still rising faster than wages, and that is a big problem. It will only get worse as there are still a ton of people around who flat-out don't believe in climate-change and entire countries that misuse it for political gain like the US.

Not a big fan of The Netherlands right now. Problems stay unsolved, costs are spiraling, aging population and water infrastructure that will increasingly cost more money to keep up with global warming and the gas well is dry. Before The Netherlands discovered gas, they were a very average economy. The really got rich due to gas in spite of what the Dutch keep telling themselves. Yes, they are traders, but so are the Greek.

I think only if the political situation changes in Germany it could cause issues for the EU.

Maybe, I am quite confident the AfD party will accrue a lot of power and they are also leading the polls. The German state has a lot of poison-pills against much too extreme stuff though. And the intelligence service is very powerful. There are some other strange things happening in Germany, like the Reichsburger movement which has over 20.000 members that do not recognize the state and as recently as December 2022 plotted a coup which was folded.

 

[Martin Everson]

Your forgetting when for example of Austria's Far right Freedom party entered a coalition in Austria in 2000. EU member states froze bilateral diplomatic relations. As I said he will likely be a lame duck if he steps out of line with EU...lol.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2000/feb/02/austria.ianblack
https://www.nytimes.com/2000/09/12/world/the-european-union-lifts-sanctions-against-austria.html

The German state has a lot of poison-pills against much too extreme stuff though. And the intelligence service is very powerful.

So are the 35,000+ US troops stationed there and AIPAC if their interests are affected . There can be no repeating of history . Yes Germany has economic problems but for the EU project to survive Germany cannot go too far to the right. Common sense over sentiment should prevail especially when there is talk of a EU army and Germany insisting they want their military as the backbone to it which is not a good idea due to history. A far right backbone to any potential EU army.....errrrrr .

Germany pledges to make its military 'the backbone of defence in Europe'​

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...itary-the-backbone-defence-europe-2023-11-09/

P.S From my point of view I no longer hold any EU states investments or Euros. So just watching with popcorn .

 

[Cavaliere]

Your forgetting when for example of Austria's Far right Freedom party entered a coalition in Austria in 2000.

No, not really. That was a long time ago, times have changed and a lot of EU member-states have seen an incredible increase in far-right support. Greece has 3 far-right parties now for example. Spain has Vox etc. It's on the rise everywhere. Austria is a bad example given that the FPO literally was a government partner a couple years ago there, only being ousted by a scandal. FPO is pretty blatantly anti-rule-of-law, xenophobic, anti-EU etc.

As I said he will likely be a lame duck if he steps out of line with EU...lol.

Well, please take a look at Italy and Meloni. You will see the playbook that other fascist-led countries will adopt which is catering to the EU while doing questionable things at home. And if Germany + Italy + NL + Spain all have a far-right government, there will not be a lot of countries left to go after violators of EU law. If it happens the EU would be remolded most likely. Maybe through a pan-European model.

The big stopping force should be the UK, but they have foolishly left the union. And I would absolutely not be surprised to see Sunak work with questionable regimes in continental Europe to stop migration.

So are the 35,000+ US troops stationed there and AIPAC if their interests are affected

Not if Trump is in power, anything could happen. Also in the US military there exist a lot of extreme elements as well, even in very high positions.

AIPAC

The new rhetoric will not be aimed at Jews but at Islam / Islamist's.

Yes Germany has economic problems but for the EU project to survive Germany cannot go too far to the right.

I don't think you know to which degree the German military and the German secret service + police has been invaded by the far-right already:

- Far-Right Extremism Taints German Security Services in Hundreds of Cases (Published 2020)
- Merkel’s Spy Chief, a Hero to the Far Right, Is Removed After Public Rift (Published 2018)
- A Political Murder and Far-Right Terrorism: Germany’s New Hateful Reality (Published 2019)
- 29 Officers Suspected of Sharing Hitler Images Are Suspended in Germany (Published 2020)
- Elite German Police Unit Disbanded Over Far-Right Group Chat (Published 2021)
- Germany’s Far Right Reunified, Too, Making It Much Stronger (Published 2020)
- Germany bans neo-Nazi group with US links, conducts raids in 10 states
- German police carry out sweeping raids as neo-Nazi group banned

And there is the large reichsburger movement. Multiple coups on the German government have been folded already, there was also the gunman at the airport. The biggest defender of Merkel immigration policy, Walter Lubcke, was literally executed and shot in the head. How you then act as if nothing is brewing seems pretty ignorant to me.

Also during new polls the PVV gained even more seats.

Germany pledges to make its military 'the backbone of defence in Europe'​

It all doesn't mean much, EU today told Ukraine no 2 times, and they do not even want to commit to producing more ammo. People have been trying to ramp up ammo production but the EU refused to partake and is not willing to back more ammo producing capacity in case the war in Ukraine is over soon and it won't be needed.

There can be no repeating of history

There is no reason for there not to be a repeat of history. Especially with mass-media being so powerful these days. Some studies in NL show overwhelming support for PVV and FVD among youngsters in NL for example who watch mostly Youtube.

 

[Cavaliere]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...lmost-third-of-vote-in-east-germany-dlktgtfp2