Except Dubai does not call the shots, its Abu Dhabi who call the shots and they will not care if Dubai loose some investors. Dubai is in debts, last time 2008 crisis Dubai went almost bankrupt, it was Abu Dhabi who bailed out Dubai, in return iconic Burj Dubai was renamed to Burj Khalifa, Khalifa was the ruler of Abu Dhabi. It is matter of time Dubai will again on the verge of
bankruptcy and Abu Dhabi will again bail out.
Now my thesis is, they have plans like that:
2018 - VAT was introduced
2023 - Corporate Tax is Introduced
2028 - Income Tax should be introduced
They are slowly introducing taxes to replace the oil company, so every 5 years they are doing it.
Golden Visa in 2019 was introduced, initially the requirement to get Golden Visa was to invest 10 million AED, now currently they have reduced it to 2 million AED. They will reduce it to further in coming years may be it will be 500k AED or 200k AED. Golden Visas are synonym to Permanent Residency, once Golden Visas are available to majority of people then they will be start giving citizenships to
rich.
Golden Visas and Citizenships will make sure that people dont leave UAE and its not empty place. Now lets talk about maths, currently approx 80% to 90%
GDP of UAE comes from Oil. Total oil exports of UAE is $150 billion. They introduced VAT in 2019 at 5%, last year UAE got $26 Billion from VAT alone. Think how much revenue they will get once they increase that VAT, they introduce the new taxes. It will be more than current $150 billion which they get from oil exports.
Now does all that scenarios suits UAE, I think yes, but for me it does not. My problem with UAE is that they dont think for small business man living a decent life. All their planning and rules are made like every one is running multi million business. So I personally think its inevitable that UAE will become EU or US or SG where there are lot of taxes so I will prefer to move somewhere else where I pay taxes but in return I get easy banking, rules that siut small businessman like myself, courts and democracy.