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Bitcoin below 57K$ why the market is down?

turmpy

turmpy

Mentor Group Lifetime
Mar 26, 2024
70
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#1
What is happening now with the stock market, gold, and the crypto market? I can see everything is falling today as if it were the plague people are dealing with, and folks must be selling off their holdings.
Is it only the American and Chinese figures causing this, or is there something else going on in the world right now that I'm not aware of?
 
#2
It all goes down to one number - FED interest rate.

There is a positive scenario: the FED will push the rate down to comfortable 2% and do it as fast as possible. That will allow people to keep their houses (mortgages will be affordable), it will allow like half of NYSE companies to keep digging (google how many public corporations are just zombies that barely serve their debt), that will bring cash to high-risk assets like venture capital, crypto etc and allow the music to continue.

Then there is a negative scenario: high rates are here to stay due to natural causes (inflation, overproduction, population aging etc) and black swans (wars and conflicts). That will cause the financial system to collapse like in 2008, but this time the boom will be bigger and the QE mechanism is already if not exhausted, but at least not as efficient due to overuse during Covid and extreme levels of debt accumulated in every industry. That will eventually make economy healthier, but the cost will be hundreds of thousand closed businesses, mass bankruptcy, million lost jobs etc.

BTC is just another high-risk asset, it closely correlates with others like VC valuations and NASDAQ. Gold is like -5% from ATH, wouldn't call it a sell off.
 
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#3
Looks like there will be a new topic for every 5-10k increase and decrease in the price of BTC

If by chance someone zoomed out and saw that BTC has been going up for a year and a half. The indicators were already very overheated, there was a need to cool down the market, it will not be healthy if there are no corrections. We will see the real effect of the halving 6 months after it as it happened in the previous cycles. Although this time the pre-halving rally was driven by ETFs, institutional demand.

Come back in the fall when we will see the true effect of the halving and reduced supply even on exchanges where liquidity is decreasing to new lows and we will likely see a liquidity crisis and with it the price will rise to new heights.

I expect a final price shake out possibly around the US elections (if they happen at all), until then keep buying the dips.
 
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#4
turmpy said:
What is happening now with the stock market, gold, and the crypto market? I can see everything is falling today as if it were the plague people are dealing with, and folks must be selling off their holdings.
Is it only the American and Chinese figures causing this, or is there something else going on in the world right now that I'm not aware of?
Click to expand...
tis is over. going to sub 0.

manukahoney said:
It all goes down to one number - FED interest rate.

There is a positive scenario: the FED will push the rate down to comfortable 2% and do it as fast as possible. That will allow people to keep their houses (mortgages will be affordable), it will allow like half of NYSE companies to keep digging (google how many public corporations are just zombies that barely serve their debt), that will bring cash to high-risk assets like venture capital, crypto etc and allow the music to continue.

Then there is a negative scenario: high rates are here to stay due to natural causes (inflation, overproduction, population aging etc) and black swans (wars and conflicts). That will cause the financial system to collapse like in 2008, but this time the boom will be bigger and the QE mechanism is already if not exhausted, but at least not as efficient due to overuse during Covid and extreme levels of debt accumulated in every industry. That will eventually make economy healthier, but the cost will be hundreds of thousand closed businesses, mass bankruptcy, million lost jobs etc.

BTC is just another high-risk asset, it closely correlates with others like VC valuations and NASDAQ. Gold is like -5% from ATH, wouldn't call it a sell off.
Click to expand...
free alpha: rates are a meaningless metric.
 
#5
BTC’s volatility is about 3x the S&P500’s, which means that a -10% for btc equals to a -3.3% for the S&P.
Gold has about the same volatility as the S&P.
 
#6
JackAlabama said:
ree alpha: rates are a meaningless metric.
Click to expand...
which define the lives of every person with mortgage or rent (oops, that's like everyone?), most of the business, can topple governments and cause years-long crisis. Yep, it's meaningless, but people are dumb and they need simple magic numbers to tell them what is good and what is not.
 
#7
Stagflation as said is now officaly

Secondly the 2 months chart for bitcoin created a big reversal candle meaning there will be a downtrend for next several months.
Where will be the bottom ?No clue but it will be the final big opportunity to buy cheap alts
 
#8
#13
turmpy said:
What is happening now with the stock market, gold, and the crypto market? I can see everything is falling today as if it were the plague people are dealing with, and folks must be selling off their holdings.
Is it only the American and Chinese figures causing this, or is there something else going on in the world right now that I'm not aware of?
Click to expand...

Unscroll BTC chart please... 23% down (currently) from Local top (73.7K) to local bottom (56.5K). VERY standard historically.

BTC did X3 from october 2023 till february 2024, but most of people think we will do x5-x10 without correction and shake all weak hands. No magical money. HODL and DCA all dips.
 
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