Total return by asset for last 200 years

[scooterguy]

Please explain me this
Imagine I invested 1 million in s&p500, i collect 1.35% dividends and right after the price falls by 50%, so I'm worth 500k. How much dividends I get in $ ?

It depends on lots of factors. Usually the decrease in dividend percentage is delayed after a crash, by a few months. So, at first you'd probably get ~3% of $500k in dividends, and then you'd get 1.35% of $500k, once companies in the SP500 get affected by the crisis in question and reduce/eliminate dividends.

At least that's what happened during the last two crashes (2009 and 2020).

It's hard to predict the future in this sense though, because we don't know what will cause the next crash or how bad it will be.

As they say, "hope for the best, but prepare for the worst."

 

[Mercury]

Over the long term lump sum wins

Sure. When I want to lump sum invest trying to time the market I'd rather go with high volatility assets with rising identified pattern where "long term" is relatively not that long. BTC is (still) one.

At the end of the day, investing is just a matter of conviction.

 

[scooterguy]

Sure. When I want to lump sum invest trying to time the market I'd rather go with high volatility assets with rising identified pattern where "long term" is relatively not that long. BTC is (still) one.

What are other investments where "long term" is still relatively not that long?

 

[JohnLocke]

I started trading in 1999, right before the Tech bubble. Before that I was a long-term invertor.

You must have made a huge loss in the beginning of the 00 ?

 

[Radko]

You must have made a huge loss in the beginning of the 00 ?

Back in 2000 I was shorting a lot of Tech stocks, it was too obvious that it was a bubble, there were so many Tech companies with absurd valuations, it was crazy.

It's "easy" to make money on a bull market and on a bear market, the challenge comes when the market is trading sideways.

I no longer trade stocks, only Futures. As always, risk management is everything in trading.

 

[Mercury]

What are other investments where "long term" is still relatively not that long?

I'm still looking too.

 

[wellington]

Just take a position in specific asset classes... still some good positions pre-May next year when it should be peaking for the later / lagging equities.

Mind, it's really jumped ahead of the liquidity cycle this season so might end up blowing through to late 2025.

 

[uranium]

Just take a position in specific asset classes... still some good positions pre-May next year when it should be peaking for the later / lagging equities.View attachment 6934View attachment 6935

Mind, it's really jumped ahead of the liquidity cycle this season so might end up blowing through to late 2025.

Can you use some graphs to predict btc post halving price ?

 

[wellington]

Can you use some graphs to predict btc post halving price ?

Yeah we have those based on liquidity, for every increase in GL @10% btc moves about 5x -> roughly 1-3 weeks later.

 

[uranium]

Yeah we have those based on liquidity, for every increase in GL @10% btc moves about 5x -> roughly 1-3 weeks later.

Please share 2025 prediction

 

[wellington]

It’s not a price forecaster - that’s another one - think it had around 320k-340k based on liquidity generated by mornterizing the debt being rolled over currently, another one had around 120k to 170k but lower end monetizing

One area I have concern over - most of my trusted processes lead me to think early 2025 is the cycle end but I also am aware as we speak monetarization is occurring increasingly more towards Q4 and that takes up to a year to flood into the markets

 

[uranium]

It’s not a price forecaster - that’s another one - think it had around 320k-340k based on liquidity generated by mornterizing the debt being rolled over currently, another one had around 120k to 170k but lower end monetizing

One area I have concern over - most of my trusted processes lead me to think early 2025 is the cycle end but I also am aware as we speak monetarization is occurring increasingly more towards Q4 and that takes up to a year to flood into the markets

Agreed 100%
Q4 2025
150k on average
Thanks for your input

 

[JohnnyDoe]

@wellington you should start your own newsletter, one chart per week and soon you will show up on CNBC

 

[void]

@wellington you should start your own newsletter, one chart per week and soon you will show up on CNBC

exactly, @wellington reminds me another chart addict Root | Substack

 

[wellington]

exactly, @wellington reminds me another chart addict Root | Substac

“Goes back in broom closet”.

er week and soon you will show up on CNBC

No offence, but perhaps if you took the time to understand this you'd be making 1000+% YoY instead of 10-40%